you m#$%$ke #$%$ wonderful point in theory. In pr#$%$ctice, good luck trying to buy th#$%$t bond in #$%$ny size. You #$%$re better off trying to buy the preferred #$%$t le#$%$st th#$%$t tr#$%$des #$%$nd since they won't e#$%$rn g#$%$#$%$p profits #$%$nytime soon the interest there is t#$%$x free. However, liquidity is still #$%$n issue. At the end of the d#$%$y it is just #$%$ ment#$%$l exercise bec#$%$use the f#$%$cts of the m#$%$tter #$%$re the people on y#$%$hoo mess#$%$ge bo#$%$rds tr#$%$ding $9 stocks don't buy bonds. Furthermore, the comp#$%$ny isn't going to let the equity go to zero so if you #$%$re not m#$%$rgined just buy #$%$ few thous#$%$nd sh#$%$res #$%$nd come b#$%$ck the next time oil is $100. Might be next ye#$%$r might be next dec#$%$de who knows.
With BHI and HAL now teaming up, there is only one large integrated stock left to be the short in every single hedged oil service bet. That stock is WFT. So every hedge fund that owns an oil service stock and is truly a hedge fund and not just a levered long fund, is going to fund their long positions with short sales of WFT. It kind of sucks as a WFT shareholder, but it will at least make it that much sweeter in 3 years when the stock explodes higher and vaporizes all of these new shorts.
They are in violation of bank covenants. What he isn't saying is that they have likely already obtained a waiver and in fact could see their borrowing base increase on the redetermination. The evidence is math. Go look up the trailing 12 month EBITDA requirements and use a pencil and a piece of paper and you will find they are in technical default. Again, they very likely have a waiver in place. The company has known for some time that the third quarter calculation would be an issue. It obviously was, but I do not believe this alone will cause any problem for the company. $80 oil on the other hand is doing plenty of damage.
I'm still long the stock, but taking a couple week break from the boards. There will be no actual news about GDP until they report earnings. So any gyrations will be just that. On earnings day we will move 25%. I wish I could tell you from what level and more importantly what direction. but I can't and neither can anyone else. clear your minds for the next two weeks and get ready for the fireworks.
interesting to say the least. I suspect that we will have no incremental news until earnings. That doesn't mean the stock won't be up 20% and probably down 20% between now and then. The real game will be earnings day. My prediction is the stock closes either above 18 or below 8 on november 7.
There is a rush to say GDP hasn't been this low since ????. While I think the company will make it through this, I would just caution longs to go slowly entering. Prices are adjectives right now, and relative to the time periods mentioned the company has a fair amount more debt now then they did then. Be careful.
frustration mostly. But silence from company is deafening. Hard to tell if stock is stuck in oil price liquidation or if there are true concerns about liquidity. The combination is like being water boarded while having your toenails pulled out one at a time with a pliers.
it sure feels like it wants to trade higher. Very interesting. I wonder if it will do the GDP race to $14.50-15 by next wednesday to get a bunch of people to buy $15 calls only to close at $12.40 on Friday making all the 15's and 12.50 worthless. Would not surprise me one bit
I wish I shared your confidence. Unless they can sell cotton valley for more than $100M or get a JV signed, I see a continued slide in store.
I've been watching this for about 3 years. You can never say never, however, I think they will make it. However, the complete failure to get any bounce out of the last wells is quite concerning in my opinion. I understand that oil prices are falling and what not but that was disturbing. The bonds have not started to freak out yet, so that is also encouraging. The incredible premiums in out of the money puts and calls is also a red flag. The world knows this is a binary deal the only question is how much time, reminds me of ATPG. That one did end up in the dustbin. Again, I think these guys will make it, but they should not have let the liquidity leash get this tight. Hopefully they learned a valuable lesson.
several guarantees I would be comfortable making
1) it will get worse first
2) no idea how bad "bad" is
3) it is about liquidity first and formost
4) if you continue to own or choose to buy more, do not even bother checking the price for 2 years. The only thing that can happen by checking the price is that you will puke and sell at the bottom
5) if you do puke and sell at the bottom, please let me know you sold so I know the bottom is in.
6) if the TMS was worth more than the stock was trading at they wouldn't be #$%$ footing around with a "soft" jv process.
what I mean is that they had a chance to issue equity in the summer and they passed on it and rolled the dice on getting a JV done. Now the stock is at a point where issuing equity is very unpalatable and they are quarters away from needing capital. Not a good bargaining position to put ones self into
crude down $3 and there is no help on the way via well results or capital raises so its a free short for the hedge funds. The pain will continue each and every day until they raise some capital. It's a bummer because I think the wells have actually been pretty good, but the company should have never backed themselves into such a corner.
stock will not go up until they actually get a capital raise done. Whether that be by divestiture, joint venture, or common stock sale. Until they have capital this will continue the death spiral. They are backed into a corner and the market smells blood