naysayers who didn't believe this post a few days ago when it was still over $52.
I'm not short. The valuation has further dropped on this. Expect $38 soon. There is no upside.
Speak to a person in Corporate Taxation before you believe the #$%$ spewed. Think every Firm out there would do this with big investments with gains if it was legally possible. It's NOT!
IRS has never allowed this. Tax basis of the shares does NOT change when it moves to SPINCO.... Seriously why would it? There is no cash exchanged in this deal, just a transfer of the stock to the spinco along with some #$%$ worthless company so it's not just a movement of assets. The basis in the shares will still be the basis in the shares.... No change so there is still a tax liability on the sale of them.
You hear talks that BABA would buy the shares. Let's say BABA buys their shares back, cash goes to SPINCO... SPINCO has a capital gain as they still have basis from Yahoo... and owe the tax liability. Plus it's Foreign Source INCOME tax added. Yahoo as a company GOT NOTHING??? ask yourself, did that make sense, that yahoo just gave away all those bilions? So YAHOO has to maintain interest in SPINCO for the value of the Shares.... RELATED PARTY. Tax liability is worse than now!!!
Scenario 2: SPINCO legal company is bought by BABA... yeah the Chinese Regulators would have a field day with this one as well as the IRS. BABA publicly stated that they were never notified of this nor did they have interest and why would they want to do this? So now BABA bought your shares, you have a basis in those shares and all you have is a capital gain on your shares of SPINCO. Cash goes to all the shareholders including YAHOO who had to keep their interest of got nothing as a legal company. BABA puts the shares into treasury... Recall CHINESE LAWS of why BABA was a shell co? THIS CAN"T HAPPEN!!!
So another company buys out SPINCO and pays you for your shares. Guess what the SPINCO basis in the shares is still the same.... NO COMPANY WOULD BUY SPINCO unless adjusted for the tax liability... Not only that 15% of BABA put into the market would cause a huge deflation.
Tax basis of the shares will not change when transferred to spinco... US foreign source income will eliminate any deal with BABA and would devalue the shares anyway...
Whoever bought into this hype better learn accounting, valuation and taxation.
Valuation at best is $44!
it is cheaper and more efficient to just buy BABA but the Chinese cost is high. Plus the CHINESE GOVT is going after BABA. The communist regime is disallowing them to sell knockoffs which is 75% of the sales, there is tons of pain coming....
You forget liabilities... You also forget cost of transaction. Plus there is no cash being given to YHOO who ultimately will be a company with inability to borrow. Lastly this is US IRS and cost basis will remain with SPINCO.... whoever was tax adviser saying otherwise, needs to be FIRED. Every firm would spin off highly appreciated investments into a newco then... STUPIDITY at its best.
I never said I shorted it... In fact I didn't.
I was giving a warning to you all and homework for you to do the same on your own before the analysts notified the big money what to do.
My friend and I met for coffee, he just told me to do my own homework as his firms homework said to sell and if you wanted anything left in the game, just buy BABA.
Funny did you see the CNN article that came out after my post that basically agreed with what I wrote?
Sorry people don't do their own homework.
I know there are tons of BS artists out there.
I only trade options or go long. If I short, it would always be covered.
Nobody has to like what I post, I asked for a dispute of the facts actually. Not a single person could dispute the math who had any clue on how to read a balance sheet.
I hope at least a few people got out and some will still listen.
It's no always about making money for myself....
sorry about $44/share taking into account the huge cost of doing this transaction. Don't forget there are extreme costs in a spinoff plus China part of the deal. YHOO has liabilities that for some reason you people are ignoring.. They are now getting NO CASH but only expenses in this spinoff... YHOO will lose a lot giving up all that value in it's borrowing costs, and ability for purchases. They are not getting cash themselves in this spinoff. Bad move when fully analyzed.
all in the balance sheet and part of the valuation... do you know how to read financials? I just got word from an analyst who told me to do my math and told me they were recommending a SELL today... Do you forget liabilities and costs when you read financials, the margins on YHOO business dropping?
you can't handle the truth? If you think otherwise, let me know how you're valuing it? Posting like this, adds little value. I'm just trying to get the facts on the table.
Math and balance sheets don't lie.... it's sheer valuation.
Yahoo will fall to about $40 a share and no prospective growth with the SPINCO within it. Doesn't make sense otherwise.
Better off just buying BABA if that's want you want to hold. This is a lame mans stock at this point with no growth opportunity. The investment in china will continue to hit them for fees.
I just spoke to a financial analyst who said they are recommending SELL . My numbers weren't his but, can you really figure any better valuations but a loss in SPINCO or YHOO shares?
This is going to tumble fast once these figures are put out there.
I honestly don't recommend any direct investment either in a communist regime with fictitious accounting games so find another stock.
Why would you buy this?
Seriously, YAHOO is not getting any cash in this spinco deal, spending a small fortune on it. What will you get? Lets say current price of $50 which would be about $40 in spinco and $10 in Yhoo.... Both overvalued for the underlying assets which will further deteriorate in this deal....
There is no value of anything more than the underlying assets of Spinco. You can argue that there is for the YHOO shares but at $10 that's already priced in....
Try to analyze this.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Hmm sounds to me like Cramer put a buy on this so his cohorts could short it.... How can the man who runs thestreet allow it to say it will continue to sink after he said HP wasn't going to be as impacted.
Homework??? yeah right to #$%$ all.
This and Caterpillar all on 1 show.... can't be a mistake.
UPS - Despite hovering at 52 week and all time highs, the stock remains and underperformer, only up 5% on the year. When the stock was $110.73 there was a bullish roll in calls where a trader sold 10,000 Jan 115 calls at .90 to close and bought 8,000 April 115 calls to open for 2.21