I would be shocked if ARNA had a good quarter.... My quess is they received less than 4 million in revenue from Their Belviq partner. I will also guess that they burned through over 20 million in cash.
VVUS simply destroyed OREX in first quarter revenue. VVUS had about 32 mil and OREX came in under 5 mil for the first quarter. With higher scripts per week OREX can't even come close to VVUS. OREX would need to maybe have 10 times the number of scripts than VVUS to even come relatively close to the revenue that VVUS is brining in. VVUS also beat them by about 2 mil on the loss side as well. I don't think it is going to be even close whe ARNA annouced earnings as well. Look, ARNA are not even close to be in the same league as VVUS right now. All of the proof is in the quarterly reports.
According to "Investopia" who wrote, EU regulators kicked back ARNA"s application over concerns surronding "TUMORS" that were discovered and potential risk to "HEART VALVES" and of course "PSYCHIATRIC EVENTS" to Belviq patients. Is this true????? Sounds well tolerated to me...LMAO!!!!!
While VVUS moves higher ARNA should just keep moving lower. New article out today about 3 thing management wants to say. 1. Qsymia is better because it is time released and only needs to be taken 1 time a day, where as Belvig needs to be taken 2 times a day. 2. ARNA wants to be more like VVUS and make Belviq time released and they are trying to get that done by 2016. Belviq, is a also ran and will be far behind the market this time next year, if they continue to scrap Belviq as it is. Of course this is my opinion and it may be wrong, it could get much much worse for them.
I think its gonna be real bad for ARNA and maybe the pps drops 2 or 3 right away. Orex should do well is my guess. Not as well as VVUS, but pretty good.
It is time for ARNA to assume it rifghtful place at or near, lets say somewhere around .27 cents a share. just my opinion, dont get mad. I feel they will be like Dendreon if you know what I mean.
Also, I predict VVUS burned nearly half of the quarterly/yearly cash that ARNA burns. I also predict that ARNA sells off Belviq at a fire sale later this year.
Shenzzibegal, I asked you once before to please not reply to my postings. I do not need your juvenile thoughts and messages. I have you on ignore and do not need appreciate your stalking. Post your own message and leave me alone please.
ARNA revenue is a paltry 36 mil according to yahoo. The first quarter may be one of their worst yet. Orex has blown right by ARNA with abou 55 mil and VVUS is much better than the two combined with nearly 120 mil in revenue. ARNA needs to keep pumping dollars into not yet approved drugs and they are spending nearly 80 mil a year doing that. It won't be long and they will either go under or sell off Belviq is the way I see it. OREX releases first quarter numbers tomorrow morning, they may do really well, but I don't think there going to be reporting any milestone payments, so they may have to hit a home run with some European news. VVUS spent only 12 million in cash reserves in the first quarter, that is less than 50 mil a year. VVUS can go a long time without profits if needed. I however, believe VVUS could be profitable within a year. VVUS has too many positives that will help them. Europe, Latin America, Asia, Sleep Apnea, Hypertension and others. all they need to do his hit on a couple of those and I would think that VVUS is instant profitability.
Sorry, but VVUS is pretty much rock solid on their patents. I am not concerned over the patent issue. In fact when VVUS wins the suits and that is if they ever do go to trial, VVUS will get all legal fees paid for which are normal and customary. Not an issue there. CVOT is not an issue as well, they have the cash to pay for it and this is without the 300 million plus still to come in from Stendra and Spedra. The only thing the share holders need is someone like George Soro's to come in and put the shorts on their backs. It could happen, but I doubt it. So, its more likely to either go private or be bought out for several dollars a share in my opinion.
even assuming all costs, VVUS is #$%$ better than both OREX and ARNA who are partnered with someone. VVUS revenues are much better. The cash burn was only about 12 million for the quarter and looks to go lower as the year ends. Over 300 million dollars still to come from Stendra and Spendra partners. Latin America should be similar or better. I feel all VVUS needs is a real investor who will open eyes and force the market. Someone like George Soro's would be nice.
I may mean something entirely different as well. If it is a pipe dream then whoever is taking this lower is going to reap the benefits of making their dreams come true. I think it is a very good Company with two super products, but the pps is going lowers and it will benefit someone other than the current share holders. At least that is what it looks like to me. It is wrong and it would be nice to see someone step in and put a stop to it.
I understand what you are saying and you have spent a considerable amount of time with VVUS as well. However, they are out doing ARNA and OREX and if your idea about bad performance here is legitimate than ARNA and OREX are in much worse shape, but their share price is much higher than ours. All I am saying is that I like what VVUS is doing compared to the competition because they are performing much better and that is without a partner for Qsymia. I would believe that the pps should be much higher here, but to me that is not what this management or major share holders seem to be concerned about.
I agree with you mayamannybeau, I like the strategy that the company is implementing. The thing is, it seems to me that even the management doesn't care to see a higher pps. I feel this way about management after listening to the CC yesterday. It was drab and put offish and unwilling to make certain comments along with very low excitement about their products. They keep performing well, but it doesn't seem like the performance is going to benefit the current shareholders.
I disagree with you, I do believe they are showing success and much stronger success than ARNA and OREX. The idea that the success does not matter to those who are strategically taking VVUS lower in spite of their success is what bothers me. This is not happening to bigger companies. The very idea that we seem to be watching a take over being implemented here is what bothers me and for pennies on the dollar compared to what it should be trading at. The market is just letting it happen. If we were to get an investor like George Soro's to enter into VVUS I believe that would put a quick end to the down slide. I just dont see this company doing bad. They have performed much much better than many bio's of similar size and some of those company's are trading at crazy high multiples.
The entities that are pounding VVUS pps lower just do not care in any way how good the performance of this company is. VVUS could have made .10 cents a share profit and they still would have pounded it lower. From listening to the CC, I have come to the conclusion that this Seth guy isnt interested in giving too much real information out that would show too many strong positives for this company. I think his demeanor on the CC was one of the wurst I have ever heard from a CEO. He just doesnt seem to express excitement very well. I truly believe this Company has the best products on the market, but the raid on this Company is being allowed to happen and nobody wants to stop this. It very well could be that in the end of the day VVUS is bought out for just a few dollars a share. I dont see bankruptcy, but possibly a private sale. Dont know, but it is a shame that the share holders are not being represented very well. Again, I think the products are very good and lead the market. The book value for VVUS is nearly 4 times higher than ARNA and OREX, but it trades 2 and 3 time lower. Hopefully the share holders get something out of all of this.
I recall some posters here writing about bankruptcy over and over again for about a year now. It really goes to show how out of touch some of these posters are about investing.
ARNA revenue for Belviq is many times lower than Qsymia is for VVUS. VVUS made 113 dollars per script. ARNA's partner garners most of the revenue for Belviq. I forget the percentage, but it may be that ARNA receives about 10 percent on a script. Not sure, however. I do remember hearing that their partner Tekda was pretty much giving steep discounts on Belviq to try to increase sales.
Why a sell off? VVUS beat the street on earnings and they beat on revenue by 10 million dollars. Your looking at over 100 million a year in revenue, many small bio's would love to be where VVUS is. They only burned 12 million in cash the first quarter as well. I would say those are pretty good numbers. The CC was loaded with hints about a partner for Avanafil in Latin America.