“We believe Tesla’s initial after-hours spike up, despite the shortfalls, is partly attributable to relief after the volatile shares fell 40%” so far this year, S&P Global Market Intelligence analyst Efraim Levy wrote.
However, Tesla has made similar promises in the past and failed to live up to them. Musk confidently predicted 55,000 deliveries in 2015, but eventually had to drop that number to a range of 50,000-55,000, which Tesla barely made. In 2014, the company predicted delivery of 35,000 cars, then lowered that to a range and eventually delivered less than 33,000.
Tesla also delayed the launch of the Model X more than once from early projections, and the newest Tesla electric automobile has rolled out slowly, with fewer than 300 deliveries in the first full quarter of availability. The delayed and slow rollout of that car is already causing skepticism about the Model 3, even among bullish Tesla observers, as resources still must be diverted to the Model X.
“This, added with the need to ensure the highest quality and most efficient manufacturing design on its lowest priced car, leads us to reiterate our expectation of a Model 3 launch in late 2018 (unchanged), at least 1 year later than the company is targeting,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote earlier this month.
“If he gets in that range at all, it will be in the low end,” Kelley Blue Book analyst Karl Brauer predicted. “Its going to be very tough to hit that number. He’s got to maintain demand for the Model S along with producing all those Model X’s.”
Brauer, who correctly doubted Tesla’s inability to hit 55,000 deliveries in 2015, also questioned Musk’s claims of 2016 profitability. The analyst pointed out that Tesla delivered a record number of cars in the fourth quarter, but still had its least profitable quarter of the year.
“Sales and revenue are going up aggressively, but then costs go up too. In spite of a substantial jump in sales, profitability sank even faster,” Brauer noted.
Both gapped up after earnings and #$%$/dropped 15-30% in few days. Options dont lie. Today, a trader closed out 1,700 Feb. $149 puts at $12.85 and opened 4,000 Feb. $135 puts at $7.60 ahead of earnings. That is a 3 million bet!
$MSFT and $ORCL possible suitors. 1K Apr 80 calls and 1K May 85 calls bought, Mar 85/95/105 call fly 3000/6000/3000 bought and 2K Apr 57.5 puts were sold (Short puts). Huge buts all pointing to a buyout. Could be announced before its earnings on Feb 24th. Better to cover shorts on this drop imo. Pigs will get slaughtered! I am long via call options as a speculative play