Ended up quadrupling my position in the 28's to low 29's. A gift. 2016 will be a rockin' year for HEP. Also bought ETP in the mid 45's before it took off. Was a bit timid with that one, should have been greedier :(
Gas crack continues to expand here in the Southwest, retail gas is going up wile crude is making new lows. Gas is more than a buck higher per gallon than it was last time WTI was inthe low 40's.
WCS discount is in the ridiculous zone, they're practically giving it away:
CALGARY, Alberta Aug 12 (Reuters) - Western Canada Select heavy blend crude for September delivery widened sharply on Wednesday after Enbridge Inc shut its Flanagan South and Spearhead pipelines following a crude oil leak on Tuesday.
WCS traded as low as $21.75 per barrel below the West Texas Intermediate benchmark, the widest differential in a year, before paring losses to last trade at $20.25 per barrel below the benchmark.
On Tuesday it settled at $19.80 per barrel below WTI, according to Shorcan Energy brokers.
Three QRVO investor conferences this week:
* Pacific Crest 17th Annual Global Technology Leadership Forum, Tuesday, August 11, 2015, in Vail, Colo., at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time
* Oppenheimer 18th Annual Technology, Internet & Communications Conference, Wednesday, August 12, 2015, in Boston, MA, at 9:05 a.m. Eastern Time
* Canaccord Genuity 35th Annual Growth Conference, Thursday, August 13, 2015, in Boston, MA, at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time
I would expect some of the smoke to clear from these.
Methinks you're confusing it with something else. UNEV carries finished product only, no crude. In HFC's CC, Jennings asserts their increased market share (in AZ and NV) will mitigate the seasonal slowdown.
That's basically what we have going forward. Jennings says the stock is worth 50% more than it's current price and WILL BE EXECUTING stock buybacks aggressively. He's basically playing chicken with the hedge funds who always short this stock in the fall and winter. Should be fun. If it were me, I wouldn't bet against him.
Having now listened to HEP and HFC CC's, I was wrong only in the extent to which product volumes from CA to NV were diminishing. Jennings is convinced they are going to maintain the gained market share into fall and winter, and is stepping up the stock buyback program. Gotta love it.
Barclays has always had the lowest rating and PT on this stock, and now is no different. They rate it "equal weight" with a $65 PT. The bad news is, they are a major market maker and as such can stay short longer than you or I can stay solvent...
The immaturity and lack of knowledge shown by some of the questions in the CC is stunning. Who cooked up this concept that QRVO would be "losing sockets" ? What a ridiculous idea. This is fear-mongering, trading mentality applied to a real business. Apparently these guys think that QRVO's customers are as fickle as they are. They do not appreciate the depth of the relationship between a high-tech supplier and the companies that use their products.
Worse is good for HFC.
The CA gasoline shortage has hastened the inevitable regional supply shift.
: Unless they have contractual obligations to do so, no CA refinery is sending product into NV now. CA-spec gas will stay in CA.
: The UT refineries are taking the NV market, much of it shipped in via UNEV, with less product going to AZ.
: The NM and west TX refineries are taking up the slack in AZ. You can see evidence of this in that NM gas prices have turned higher while the price of crude has dropped. Gas prices here have gone up even as WTI has dropped below 50.
For this reason I am buying HEP on any weakness. This is a win/win for them. And for HFC too. Until CA supply is better balanced, this will negate some of the seasonal lag HFC usually sees in winter.
And it will get even better when the Woods Cross expansion is up. The incremental increase will come from local black wax crudes ,which track closer price-wise to WCS than anything. I like HFC and HEP going forward.
The guys at Macquarie follow this stuff closely and they upgraded HFC a couple days ago. The rest of the street appears to be missing this.
I would not be surprised to see the return of the special divvy after earnings.
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Enough hyperbole, ok? What "embarrassment" ? They beat the street's Q2 consensus estimates and came in at the high end of the range THEY GUIDED TO last qtr. Put the blame where it belongs. It was the street analysts who blew it for Q3. Got way ahead of their skiis. QRVO does not guide 2 qtrs ahead. They give annual targets, and estimates for the next qtr, ONLY. Nothing else.
I've said this before, and will say it again. Ignore the street estimates and go with the company's. Buhaly is pretty good and not prone to BS.