what the grown ups have to say at Investor's Hub. They don't think QCOM walks on water, and
they see Intel a steady as she goes and she's going in the right direction.
This was a SOLID QUARTER, and I for one am truly PO'd that Aessa is sowing doubt amongst the investment community in his comments and his recent article. He's joining the ranks of Nenni and the other misinformants. You need only read what wbmw and mas are saying at Investor's Hub to get a mature picture and they are trying to straighten Aessa out. I think fundamentally Aessa lacks depth of understanding and experience with this industry.. Some of his articles are informative (though he really likes to blow acronyms in your face) but he is blowing around like the wind socket at a little airport in a T-storm now.
As someone said at IH, Intel is an oil tanker. It is turning slowly but always making steady progress. We don't need "fair weather fans" writing shallow articles at SA about Intel.
"Quote:Snapdragon 800 is already very impressive on 28nm HPm (albeit Silvermont is much better on perf/watt), so unless the TSMC 20nm process is just *terrible*, they'll be able to improve CPU and GPU performance/watt in a non-trivial way.
I'm not expecting "terrible", but there is a ramp up period. You are afraid of product on shelves in Q1, which is really at the very beginning of the ramp. I doubt much more than FPGA parts will be available. Not even nVidia or AMD is guiding towards discrete graphics product in Q1, and they have historically been among the earliest.
There are about 3 truths to an early process ramp:
1. Yields are low, which impacts supply
2. Wafers are expensive, which discourages vendors from building big designs - not to mention that big designs suffer more deeply from #1
3. Individual die suffer from huge variation in transistor delay, meaning that fewer hit top frequencies - meaning... initial production will probably *average* out slower than 28nm material
So you are afraid of an onslaught of product (which violates #1), with a brand new design (violates #2), and a sizable jump in performance (violates #3). See why I'm skeptical?
I can see Qualcomm jumping on about 2-3 quarters after the initial ramp (i.e. Q3 or Q4), and even then supply will be tight, and they'll have to choose whether they prioritize phones or prioritize tablets, because they won't be able to ramp new products across hundreds of millions of units. By early 2015, the production problems should be resolved, and world+dog will be happy to start building on 20nm. And by late-2015, it will be a more mature process node, similar to the way 28nm is today - around the same time Intel starts ramping their 2nd generation 14nm parts.
You could say I'm being overly reliant on history, but I made a similar prediction 2 years ago about TSMC's 28nm process (a very resourceful person might even be able to look it up) - and it pretty much played out in the same way."
This guy, Mas, replies to Ashraf...
takes him down a peg or two:
"They will not do that just before 64-bit and considering their defensive comments they won't have 64-bit ready for next year so look for 2015 for 64-bit Snapdragons and by then the competition will be 14nm Goldmont. Qualcomm seem to me to be adherents of the evolutionary approach to cpu/gpu development and they will likely want to get one last bang out of Krait at 20nm next year as it means they don't have to change much before 64-bit.
As to your earlier question about the quarter it was a good solid one especially considering mobile Haswells were thin on the ground. The big oil tanker that is Intel is slowly changing direction and the important thing is that it continues to make forward progress as it does so and it did that and it will do the same next quarter. In 2014 the pace will pick up as Haswell and Silvermont become more pervasive in OEM inventory.
As to 14nm the comments were actually encouraging. If the only thing wrong with it is just the usual initial poor yields on a new process then that bodes well. 14nm BEOL is so difficult that foundries have put it off until 2016 for volume deployment, two years after Intel so a little perspective is needed especially as Broadwell was not meant to intro until H214 anyway. 14nm is an incremental step next year, the giant leaps that needed to be made were made this year on 22nm with Haswell and Silvermont. So all these dumb analysts feigning shock horror about this is just laughable."
We are seeing thru the prism of Intel a global economic slowdown. This is clear in the slightly lower than expected Cloud Server growth rate, which is nonetheless spectacular. Intel is a clear buy based upon cyclical recovery and increasing momentum after Broadwell gets launched (geez..Nasa delayed launches all the time...high tech delays are commonplace..this is no exception) It will be dithered with big time in this quarter, so some great buying ops will come along. Sell leaps. I am optimistic about global recovery beyond 2014 and Intel finally seeing all eight cylinders. I for one am happy to see Intel accumulating all that cash..almost $20 billion, almost doubled since 2012...That's a lot ammo and about what Nvidia would cost to buy.
weak global economy, INTC lagging in all dimensions, and 40-50 terrorists are mugging the federal government. It does look like we're going over the cliff this time.
They'll take what was an aggregate flat quarter and turn it into a high speed trainwreack. Stacy and BK have given them everything they need to take this under $20.
That's how credible these two clowns are. After all the pumping and cheerleading they have done the reality is something else, like, er, um, Nenni was right. Intel is falling behind the curve. Well, maybe Covello is right? Fact is, Ashraf's articles are based on the hard discussions he reads at Investor's Hub. He translates what others say into his reports. He blows with the wind, and I now find these reports to be shallow and unbankable. Wallis is just pure noise in the system, like a buzzing flourescent light. If Intel isn't clearly out in front it is a loser...it swims in shark infested waters and it has no time to look back.
He is about as tough as toilet paper... go read his screaming crying shrieking posts on Investor's Hub. What a POS Ashraf is.
ASHRAF = POS! If you believe in Intel then throw Ashraf overboard!!!! What a POS!!!!!
Go F OFF ASHRAFF, TOU ARE A POS!!!!!
He will..they seed cells are already metastasizing. It will be a painful death.
Unbelieveable..and now we're listening to Covello ask a Q of Stacy...why do they bother answering this creep?
And exactly what other kind of #$%$ would you expect from Steve Forbes?
Hey, can't Obama invoke the 14th amendment.."US (debt payments) shall not be questioned" and just
pay it anyway? And, can't Obama invoke the sedition act and detain the nimwits by a concerted police/military action...detain them long enough so the Dems can get a budget and a debt ceiling bill through?