Corporate culture at ISIS. The offer would need to be at more than 2X premium for the leadership there to consider even. They have built this company, intentionally kept it small, and have made an effort to focus on the science rather than commercialization/marketing. 26 years of hard work and now they're finally on the break of something big. They're not going to give that up easily.
I'm still riding this gravy train, it's volatile and they will be pullbacks at some point but there's no way to be sure that it every falls back below $50.
FYI, not complaining, I like making money obviously. Just want to understand WHY.
"FYI, still plenty of room to make money tho"
That's what I'm thinking but a little nervous to pull the trigger...still 10% shy of pre-approval price where it should have jumped up from there.....
Congrats longs who were smart enough to stick it out, I never owned Keryx but I knew the drop approval made no sense and would rebound. Just sad I missed the boat on getting an easy 15% gain
This isn't blackjack chump. You got any reasoning for why the company will be worth 25% more in one week?
Why? the whole ISIS terrorist #$%$ will be out of the news in a few months when they move on to the next big threat to talk about. this company's been around for over 25 years. In 2 years people won't even remember ISIS was the name of some terrorist group. Hell, it's already being called ISIL, IS, etc now.
Just an FYI, ABBV/ENTA are the only serious competition. BMY is right on GILD's coattails as well.
Yes a stock going up 250% in 2 years is a fantastic profit, I would say.
I personally think GILD is overpriced when you look at the competition in the pipeline. They won't have the preferred first line HCV treatment for long.
I agree they will need some revenue and profits, which isn't coming in the next year most likely. That said, it's interesting you bring up GILD, who has a market cap of 150B+ just on a couple HCV and HIV drugs. Yes, those are bigger markets than most of ISIS indications (excluding Afib and Diabetes), but those are also much more crowded markets with tons of competing drugs available and in development than the orphan space. To me that all highlights the potential upside for ISIS if they hold out for buyouts (which I strongly believe they will- you don't work 80hr weeks for decades only to sell yourself short when you're on the cusp of being the next GILD or Genetech).
the 5% drop was across the board for biotechs last week. No reason to believe the stock is going to drop to 20's or low 30s,
The question is for those who bought ISIS recently. What has changed in the last year about ISIS that makes anyone question their fundamentals now after buying in recently. It's not about why you anti-ISIS/pro-Vical morons are still being morons.
Warren Buffet claims his first trade ever was buying $13,000 of Geico stock. He sold out at $17,000. A pretty nice profit, but he admits he had no reason to sell out. The fundamentals were all still there. If he kept his stock a few more years, he would have made over $1.3 million. That's right, he could have went from making a few thousand to a over a million bucks in a just a few years. Of course, now he owns Geico but that's a different story.
ok story time is over. Now here's my question. What in any way has changed about the fundamentals of ISIS over the past 3 months or so that we've had this 30% run up? Give me just one thing that isn't there. The pipeline of 30+ drugs. Moving forward into phase 2/3 trials. Milestone payments from partnering. Moving forward with sole development of some drugs. Nothing has changed, everything is moving forward on track. If you want to take your profit fine, but I'm in this for the long haul because I believe in the company.
1. CDC just relased a report and while MDR gram negative infections have been a huge and growing concern for the past two decades now, CRE was one of four infections noted to be in urgent need of new antibiotics. There are 9000 cases of CRE every year in the US alone, with over 600 deaths due to it per year in the US.
2. The comparator drug in the study, Collistin, is actually a VERY old antibiotic (from the 60's) that is amazingly now the last line of defense to save people's lives who have CRE. It is very renally toxic and the only reason that MDR isn't fully resistant to collistin yet is because doctors stopped using it for decades because there were safer drug options available, unfortunately all of those antibiotics are now ineffective as treating these hospital acquired MDR gram negative bacterial infections.
3. A superiority study in antibiotic drug development is rarely done, because frankly it's a very high bar to reach. Most antibiotic trials are simply non-inferiority. ISIS is going for a slam dunk here!