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Toll Brothers Inc. Message Board

primemeridian 329 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 20, 2014 4:35 PM Member since: Dec 30, 1997
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  • Indiana Toll Road Operator Filing Bankruptcy

    Advance Indiana™ ⋅ Gary R. Welsh

    The foreign operator of the Indiana Toll Road has confirmed its plan to file for bankruptcy on Monday. ITR Concession Co. tells the AP it has a ...

  • from John Burns Consulting

    Student Loans Will Cost the Industry $83 Billion This Year

    by Rick Palacios Jr. and Ali Wolf

    8% fewer homes will transact than normal in 2014, purely due to student debt.

    This week, our clients received a 30-page paper that assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Our conclusion is that 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that is $83 billion per year in lost volume.

    Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

    The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.

    At a high level, the math is as follows:

    •Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
    •29 million of the 86 million people aged 20---39 have some student debt.
    •Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
    •Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
    •About 8% of the 20---39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
    •Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt-----ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.

    While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a le

  • Reply to

    Housing Starts Dive 14.4%

    by sage2123 Sep 18, 2014 1:04 PM
    primemeridian primemeridian Sep 19, 2014 7:41 AM Flag

    interesting action considering homebuilder sentiment is hitting all time highs at the same time!

  • primemeridian primemeridian Sep 17, 2014 8:51 PM Flag

    easy double from here! watching new single family sales SAAR numbers fall from 488,000 to 406,000 from the start of the year to present makes it a no brainer!

  • California sees 73 additional West Nile virus cases, Orange County up to 116

    Outbreak News Today

    The number of human West Nile virus cases so far this year in California is double the 2013 numbers, according to new data released by the ...

  • good thing we're not in a global economy, eh?

    World stocks hit one-month low, caution ahead of Fed

    Reuters - ‎33 minutes ago‎

    LONDON (Reuters) - Global shares hit a one-month low on Tuesday as investors refrained from placing strong bets before a Fed meeting that could adjust expectations about how soon the U.S.

  • Nearly 480 janitors who work in CPS schools to be laid off

    RedEye Chicago

    "We were obviously aware of that taking place, as you would expect, since they're our contractor," McCaffrey said of the custodian layoffs. Affected ...

  • Reply to

    Why RadioShack Is Weighing Bankruptcy Filing

    by primemeridian Sep 11, 2014 6:53 PM
    primemeridian primemeridian Sep 12, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    gotta luv them sort of places....."let's see....if we hire a MILLLLLLION employees and each one only sells ONE DOLLAR per day......."

  • primemeridian primemeridian Sep 12, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    radio shack bankruptcy coming, too

  • oopsie!

    Jobless claims jump back above 300K; remain near pre-recession levels

    CNBC - ‎6 hours ago‎

    The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but that probably does not signal a material shift in labor market conditions as claims remain near their pre-recession levels.

  • oopsie!

    Jobless claims jump back above 300K; remain near pre-recession levels

    CNBC - ‎6 hours ago‎

    The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but that probably does not signal a material shift in labor market conditions as claims remain near their pre-recession levels.

  • primemeridian by primemeridian Sep 11, 2014 7:04 PM Flag

    probably just the weather......

    California home sales drop to 4-year August low

    U-T San Diego - ‎41 minutes ago‎

    IRVINE, Calif. (AP) - The number of California homes sold in August fell to the lowest level in four years as a supply crunch pushed prices higher and kept homes out of reach for many buyers.

  • like I said several months ago....2nd have will be a bit dicey!

    N.J. foreclosure filing rate up 115% from last year

    Philly - ‎20 minutes ago‎

    New Jersey's foreclosure-filing rate skyrocketed in August, by 115 percent over the same month in 2013, pushing the state into the Top Five, housing-data analytics firm RealtyTrac said Thursday.

  • Why RadioShack Is Weighing Bankruptcy Filing

    probably because everyone is buying all these houses out there, they don't have time to service their electronic hardware!.....like, obviously!....duh!

    Bloomberg - ‎18 minutes ago‎

    Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- RadioShack said it's working with creditors and other parties to get more capital after posting another quarter of plunging same-store sales and mounting losses.

  • primemeridian primemeridian Sep 11, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    I think you're on to something there, sage

    many home in the cities have carried values so low that it's just not worth the expense involved to complete the foreclosure action.....judgments go stale after a while if not foreclosed or otherwise disposed

    so now that they've been able to ratchet prices up a bit by manipulating their physical supply/listed supply, it makes sense to foreclose on some....others they might simply release their liens rather than paying to re-up the judgment

    (I know this is too deep for any of our Pollyanna buddies to grasp....but those guys haven't been lasting around here for long lately anyhow)

  • Foreclosures are back — are they coming to your city?
    (short answer: yes)

    MarketWatch - ‎53 minutes ago‎

    The number of homes scheduled for foreclosure auction is rising - reversing a years-long trend. According to data released Thursday by RealtyTrac, more than 51,000 properties were scheduled for foreclosure auction in August 2014.

  • alternative media has been chattering lately about an enemy camped out in Juarez, now about an hour ago this was reported:

    Man Wearing ISIS Logo Reportedly Arrested in Houston, TX

    By Ben Barrack on September 10, 2014 in Featured, General

    There isn’t much information on this story but it represents the second report – with photos – of an alleged ISIS fighter / sympathizer in Houston. According to a website called Political Ears, which links to a Tea Party facebook page, the back of a man wearing body armor is seen in what looks like a police car. The ISIS logo is imprinted on the body armor.

  • primemeridian primemeridian Sep 10, 2014 7:53 AM Flag

    my old town has a cholera cemetery (as a number of areas around the country have), of course cholera is different/similar to ebola in a number of ways

    the historians in my old town say the peak of the cholera epidemic had 80 people per day dumped into an open trench....it was like they couldn't bury them fast enough to keep up with the mortality rate

    I don't know the population of that city from the cholera days, but currently it's a small town with about 30,000.....so even at today's population 80 per day is a LOT

    this ebola looks to be another global issue, 80 per day is peanuts compared to what you and I see coming!

    this west nile is also bigger than they care to know.....estimates are that 80% of the people with the virus don't even know they're sick....yet

    apply the cockroach principle to the west nile thing, I believe (for every one you "see", there are a hundred out there you DON'T see!)

    swine flu will also be a big concern, especially now that much of our pork will be coming from china with traditional American labels

  • Reply to

    building houses with 3D printers in China

    by primemeridian Sep 9, 2014 9:32 PM
    primemeridian primemeridian Sep 9, 2014 10:17 PM Flag

    article includes video.....interesting stuff!

  • (Reuters) - An outbreak of the West Nile virus in California's Orange County has infected more than 90 people so far this year, seven times as many as were diagnosed in all of 2013, and public health experts say the region's prolonged drought may be a factor.

    Not only has the number of human infections reported in the Southern California county since January dwarfed the 12 cases documented for all of 2013, but the prevalence of West Nile in birds, which harbor the virus, and in the mosquitoes transmitting it has also spiked.

    The 94 confirmed human cases in the county, three of them fatal, represent about half of the 180-plus documented statewide so far this year and nearly a quarter of the 400 cases reported nationally.

    Local health officials say they face a tough challenge in educating the public about the threat and persuading people to safeguard themselves against insect bites.

    "Getting people in Southern California, which is not a particularly buggy place, to think about covering up and using bug repellent is an uphill battle," Deanne Thompson, a spokeswoman at the Orange County Health Care Agency, said on Tuesday.

    But the reason why Orange County has been so hard hit is still a mystery, experts said. Los Angeles and Fresno counties each have reported about two dozen cases this year.

TOL
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