The company reported last November that their "Hawaii marketing plan," which they tested in a market on the West Coast, got growth of 49% above the rate they got from the remainder of the country in the second quarter. They also mentioned a BioAstin infomercial that they were developing. Since then, nothing about the infomercial or a roll-out of the marketing plan in the rest of the country, likely because of astaxanthin production problems reported in the following quarters, but then Davis buys 50,000 shares in February. So if the only remaining obstacle to ramping up astaxanthin production and sales is poor weather, and we are about to enter the warmer months, then I could see why the stock might not react much to this news. There must be some positive reason that Davis went in and bought so much, buying even more shares than when he bought before the Dr. Mercola and Oz thing hit. So even in the midst of bad news, there may be enough uncertainty here about what is going on underneath the surface with the company, that prevents most stockholders from reacting strongly to the bad news, at least at this point on a Thursday afternoon.
From an already lower level, Brazilian ethanol production will fall by a little over 7% in the 2014-2015 season, or 6.2 billion gallons, a drought in January and February having affected the amount of sugar cane being produced. Though exports will fall about 35%, output will remain significantly below domestic demand because higher domestic prices haven't been high enough to stimulate investment in new ethanol plants in that country, so the industry crisis there, on-going for five years, will continue. This is all good news for U.S. ethanol demand.
The French have a phrase for this, "Le irritating." The only positive thing, if we can call it that, about this report is that these two specific things are temporary conditions whose effects will pass in time. However, production problems due to adverse weather remain as a recurring possibility in the future.
And you are correct that Ford Equity Research does rate Cyanotech, which is good news. Thank you for bringing that to our attention. They also evaluate Cyan, Inc. And they have recently moved their rating on Cyanotech from "sell" to "hold," as you said. They also think the price of the stock will appreciate in the next month to three months. Their rating criteria is limited to three simple factors, so there are many things about the operations of the companies and the stocks that they watch that do not factor into their conclusions, e.g., insider buying, etc.
It makes more sense for the company known as CYAN. Show us the link where it says "Cyanotech." Also, are you talking about Ford Equity Research, or Ford Research? I can't find the latter, so I don't much care what a "Ford Research" might say at this point at least.
They likely never had a strong sell on Cyanotech in the first place, since virtually no analysts cover this stock. We have seen a confusion happening between another company called "CYAN," and our company, Cyanotech, symbol "CYAN."
Kelly, might these developments have meaning for AMTX? If so, could you explain that on the AMTX board? Thanks.
Chad Hart, an Iowa State University Extension grain marketing economist said that in 2013 we finally caught up to the corn demand that has been built up, and "We have more production than demand and that has driven prices down and will continue to hold prices down." The professor said that U.S. farmers will produce more corn than the market needs. "We're back to breakeven for 2014 and 2015."
In others words, at this point Aemetis can look forward to 21 months of a favorable crush spread between the price of corn and the price of ethanol. This situation has just begun to be reflected in the company's operational results, and in the price of the company's common stock. Nameplate capacity for the Keyes plant, one of the more modern and efficient ethanol plants in the United States, was 55 million gallons when the company bought it in 2012. Recently Aemetis said that it was operating at 120% of nameplate capacity, which would by 66 million gallons, going by the 2012 figure. I believe the state has given the company permission to go as high as 75 million gallons, so there is still room to grow beyond current production to some extent.
As reported yesterday, ethanol futures rose to their highest price since July 2011, to $2.98 on the Chicago Board of trade, and supply in PADD 5, on the West Coast, was down 32 percent, the price hitting $3.98 a gallon, with ethanol more expensive than gasoline. With stockpiles just sitting on the rails somewhere, and equipment running about 22 days behind schedule, ethanol producers in the Midwest are reluctant to ship to the West Coast out of concern that it will increase the time needed to get the rail cars back. Aemetis, as a West Coast producer, has none of these supply problems, but benefits from the high prices. This is truly a bonanza.
An article with that title was published on the 19th of this month in an industry magazine "read by over 14,000+ organizations," and is being picked-up by other publications and reprinted. The article was written by the editor of the magazine. A Web search on the phrase should bring it up. This is powerful publicity for AMTX. I remember a little over a year ago in January when this stock hit a high of 82 cents in the middle of the drought and with sky-high corn prices, and with the Keyes plant about to be idled. The prospects for the company are soooo much brighter now than they were a year ago! How much higher could the stock price go in the future if it hit 82 cents during such a dismal time? I can't even imagine it.
I can't see why it wouldn't be to Cyanotech's advantage if this lawsuit happened to be extended, given that the patents are due to expire this year, so I don't see these filings with their inevitable delays as mistakes necessarily. Now Cyanotech can just come back with refiles. Taking the case past the expiration date will make Valensa's case weaker psychologically to a jury, having lost its urgency, as it will all be history by then. In February, the court ruled that it saw some merit in some of Cyanotech's arguments against Valencia's patent-violation charges, and Cyanotech promptly asked for a 10-month stay to prepare its case on those matters. There is plenty of precedence for granting such stays in those kinds of cases, but I haven't seen anything yet indicating that the court has ruled on the requested stay. If granted, this stay could easily move the actual jury trial out to 2016 or close to it.
The 50-day moving average is crossing the 200 day moving average today to start forming that golden cross. Fun times.
Given that our favorite insider bought 50,000 shares back in February at $5.34, your purchase seems like a good bet to me.