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AFC Enterprises, Inc. Message Board

principletrade 54 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2014 12:25 PM Member since: Aug 10, 2012
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  • principletrade principletrade May 2, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    Even if that's the case, I believe there will be a significant decline in the domestic user base after the 6 month commitment is over. There will be a lot of folks that tire of paying $10 a month while there aren't any major events as big as Wrestlemania.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the sustainable subscription base domestically is 500k or so. Ultimately in my estimation, the WWE network business model will, at best, do nothing to help the bottom line or it will even hurt earnings. WWE has now posted 2 consecutive quarterly losses and they are burning through cash on top of that with a currently unsustainable dividend. We all know what happens to a stock when the dividend is dropped or reduced, and WWE won't be able to keep it up at this pace.

    There is no question in my mind that given the weak subscriber base for the OTT network, it will be another eventual failure for Vince McMahon or it will be an ongoing distraction that more-or-less operates at a break-even, and break-even's aren't what you need when earnings are deteriorating quarter after quarter.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • principletrade by principletrade Apr 30, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    Well, Raymond James has upgraded this stock to "Strong Buy", but lowered their price target from $60 to $48

    I wonder if this "Strong Buy" rating is as worthless as their prior "Strong Buy" when they said it was going-to-sixty?

    The entire market is high right now, there is record levels of margin loaned out, and this stock isn't doing ANYTHING

  • principletrade principletrade Apr 30, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    It's good to see that they are able to get an investment without having to offer a discount to market price. The Ironridge financing deals required offering shares at a discount, Marley isn't having to take a haircut on the shares anymore, and this is an investment by a business partner that knows exactly what the nuts-and-bolts are because they are preparing the K-Cups personally.

    I also wanted to note that Amazon continues to sell out and restock the K-cups and the price has gotten slightly more affordable. Right now you can get 24 packs of the "One Love" variety for $13.77 compared to roughly $15 a few months ago.

    MC keeps making advances....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    WWE 10% drop today!!!!!! Why?

    by maxtosczak1981 Apr 25, 2014 4:43 PM
    principletrade principletrade Apr 28, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    Might not be a bad idea to buy put options now. This could go right back down to $10 where you started from. It has been well under $10 within the last year, it could reasonably get back there now.

    Even with plenty of short covering this has gotten pummeled badly from its highs.

  • Reply to

    Huge News Released

    by derek_nayduch180 Apr 26, 2014 9:16 AM
    principletrade principletrade Apr 28, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    I think it's entirely possible the revenues could be over $3M for last quarter.

    Why haven't the admins deleted this scam yet???

    Strong buy here guys... .35 now.... I guarantee .38 is going to happen soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • principletrade by principletrade Apr 28, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    This is at about 60x earnings, and there isn't anything going on here to justify that number. "Sell in May..." will apply here because this stock is expensive, the entire market is expensive, there is records levels of margin loaned out on the NYSE, and this just need one significant catalyst to get taken down a peg.

    In a nutshell, I think the market is high and the good go down with the bad too... and this stock isn't that good anyway.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • principletrade principletrade Apr 28, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    The network has a little over 600k subscribers, and they sold 400k on Pay-per-view. While it's true that means 1 million people watched Wrestlemania, there is a problem.

    The network needs 1 million subscribers to break-even on the network, they only have 625k subscribers though, so effectively the network viewers are LOSING money.

    The 400k people that bought the event with PPV on cable/satellite were a 50/50 profit split like last year, but they sold around 650k PPV purchases last year, so WWE saw a 40% reduction for PPV purchases, and profits from that will probably be wiped out by losses on the Over-the-top WWE network.

    WWE is in an incredibly weak position now that they have their ill-fated network running. If you are long, you need to be praying the TV deal doesn't disappoint, or this could get gut-wrenching to watch.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • principletrade principletrade Apr 25, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    This isn't going to go higher than $30 this summer, I'll guarantee that. What if the TV deal sucks? Everyone was calling for $400M or more compared to the current $100M deal. Unless the TV deal is unbelievably good it will just drag the stock even lower. The WWE network barely has HALF of their break-even subscription base and their PPV numbers for Wrestlemania were dramatically lower than last year.

    WWE is probably weaker now than when this stock was $8 last year. If the TV deal isn't incredibly good, this stock will be in single digits so fast it will make your head spin.

  • There have been numerous "analysts" calling for $30 or more on this stock. That's is becoming harder and harder to believe.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    OK, so definitely someone thinks

    by jrad52 Apr 25, 2014 10:55 AM
    principletrade principletrade Apr 25, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    I could be way off base, but Amazon just reported revenues that were 23% higher year-over-year. Amazon retails a lot of electronics, so I think it's a tea-leaf for the consumer electronics segment.

    Auto sales have proven to be strong over the last few months too. That should bode well for the automotive OEM segment.

    Down to 8.x times earnings here. At some point the multiple will get cheap enough somebody might do their due-diligence and take a bite here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    im not trying to bash but-

    by chingoo1 Apr 24, 2014 10:59 AM
    principletrade principletrade Apr 24, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    The JBM is expensive, but the other varieties are about the same price as Starbucks K-cups.

  • I don't understand why analyst keep pumping this stock. I still contest that this stock is WAY overpriced right now and there isn't anything happening here to justify the multiples here. I seriously doubt this stock is going to do anything good for a long position heading through summer.

    I'd be looking to sell any "pop" here.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • principletrade by principletrade Apr 24, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    I think the $3M investment in 360fly could prove to be a money maker. The 360* camera may end up being a bigger deal than the go-pro. Just the patent rights alone could be a significant value. VOXX has a pretty good history of acquisitions for what it's worth too.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Brinks, Venezuela and VOXX

    by jrad52 Apr 20, 2014 8:03 PM
    principletrade principletrade Apr 23, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    You are correct that there is a lot of goodwill and intangibles on the balance sheet, but I think that at least a few of their brands justify the "blue skies". IMO the Klipsch name carries a lot of weight, they have an almost fanatical following. They have a strong presence in the headphone market, a SUPERB reputation for premium home audio, and their commercial equipment has unsurpassed quality. Jensen carries a solid legacy too, they are the factory speaker in most Fender tube amplifiers. Advent is a respected name, it's not a Klipsch, but it's highly respected. I could go on, but it would be redundant.

    I think the OEM automotive segment will continue to perform well. New car sales have stayed strong and the average automobile age is still incredibly high, so I doubt we'll see any imminent weakness there.

    The automotive aftermarket equipment should continue to perform well if companies like O'reilly auto or Autozone are any indication.

    I know there have been some legislative steps to curb patent trolling over the last year, and VOXX was one of the big supporters of that. That may not be a big issue, but it should eliminate some unusual expenses.

    It's probably safe to assume this quarter could be weak though, the winter weather was awful and that probably caused a big reduction in foot traffic in electronics stores.

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