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AFC Enterprises, Inc. Message Board

principletrade 51 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2014 12:25 PM Member since: Aug 10, 2012
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  • Reply to

    im not trying to bash but-

    by chingoo1 Apr 24, 2014 10:59 AM
    principletrade principletrade Apr 24, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    The JBM is expensive, but the other varieties are about the same price as Starbucks K-cups.

  • Reply to

    OK, so definitely someone thinks

    by jrad52 Apr 25, 2014 10:55 AM
    principletrade principletrade Apr 25, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    I could be way off base, but Amazon just reported revenues that were 23% higher year-over-year. Amazon retails a lot of electronics, so I think it's a tea-leaf for the consumer electronics segment.

    Auto sales have proven to be strong over the last few months too. That should bode well for the automotive OEM segment.

    Down to 8.x times earnings here. At some point the multiple will get cheap enough somebody might do their due-diligence and take a bite here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • There have been numerous "analysts" calling for $30 or more on this stock. That's is becoming harder and harder to believe.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • principletrade principletrade Apr 25, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    This isn't going to go higher than $30 this summer, I'll guarantee that. What if the TV deal sucks? Everyone was calling for $400M or more compared to the current $100M deal. Unless the TV deal is unbelievably good it will just drag the stock even lower. The WWE network barely has HALF of their break-even subscription base and their PPV numbers for Wrestlemania were dramatically lower than last year.

    WWE is probably weaker now than when this stock was $8 last year. If the TV deal isn't incredibly good, this stock will be in single digits so fast it will make your head spin.

  • principletrade principletrade Apr 28, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    The network has a little over 600k subscribers, and they sold 400k on Pay-per-view. While it's true that means 1 million people watched Wrestlemania, there is a problem.

    The network needs 1 million subscribers to break-even on the network, they only have 625k subscribers though, so effectively the network viewers are LOSING money.

    The 400k people that bought the event with PPV on cable/satellite were a 50/50 profit split like last year, but they sold around 650k PPV purchases last year, so WWE saw a 40% reduction for PPV purchases, and profits from that will probably be wiped out by losses on the Over-the-top WWE network.

    WWE is in an incredibly weak position now that they have their ill-fated network running. If you are long, you need to be praying the TV deal doesn't disappoint, or this could get gut-wrenching to watch.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • principletrade by principletrade Apr 28, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    This is at about 60x earnings, and there isn't anything going on here to justify that number. "Sell in May..." will apply here because this stock is expensive, the entire market is expensive, there is records levels of margin loaned out on the NYSE, and this just need one significant catalyst to get taken down a peg.

    In a nutshell, I think the market is high and the good go down with the bad too... and this stock isn't that good anyway.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Huge News Released

    by derek_nayduch180 Apr 26, 2014 9:16 AM
    principletrade principletrade Apr 28, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    I think it's entirely possible the revenues could be over $3M for last quarter.

    Why haven't the admins deleted this scam yet???

    Strong buy here guys... .35 now.... I guarantee .38 is going to happen soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WWE 10% drop today!!!!!! Why?

    by maxtosczak1981 Apr 25, 2014 4:43 PM
    principletrade principletrade Apr 28, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    Might not be a bad idea to buy put options now. This could go right back down to $10 where you started from. It has been well under $10 within the last year, it could reasonably get back there now.

    Even with plenty of short covering this has gotten pummeled badly from its highs.

  • principletrade principletrade Apr 30, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    It's good to see that they are able to get an investment without having to offer a discount to market price. The Ironridge financing deals required offering shares at a discount, Marley isn't having to take a haircut on the shares anymore, and this is an investment by a business partner that knows exactly what the nuts-and-bolts are because they are preparing the K-Cups personally.

    I also wanted to note that Amazon continues to sell out and restock the K-cups and the price has gotten slightly more affordable. Right now you can get 24 packs of the "One Love" variety for $13.77 compared to roughly $15 a few months ago.

    MC keeps making advances....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • principletrade by principletrade Apr 30, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    Well, Raymond James has upgraded this stock to "Strong Buy", but lowered their price target from $60 to $48

    I wonder if this "Strong Buy" rating is as worthless as their prior "Strong Buy" when they said it was going-to-sixty?

    The entire market is high right now, there is record levels of margin loaned out, and this stock isn't doing ANYTHING

  • principletrade principletrade May 2, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    Even if that's the case, I believe there will be a significant decline in the domestic user base after the 6 month commitment is over. There will be a lot of folks that tire of paying $10 a month while there aren't any major events as big as Wrestlemania.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the sustainable subscription base domestically is 500k or so. Ultimately in my estimation, the WWE network business model will, at best, do nothing to help the bottom line or it will even hurt earnings. WWE has now posted 2 consecutive quarterly losses and they are burning through cash on top of that with a currently unsustainable dividend. We all know what happens to a stock when the dividend is dropped or reduced, and WWE won't be able to keep it up at this pace.

    There is no question in my mind that given the weak subscriber base for the OTT network, it will be another eventual failure for Vince McMahon or it will be an ongoing distraction that more-or-less operates at a break-even, and break-even's aren't what you need when earnings are deteriorating quarter after quarter.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Sold recently

    by mchlr963 May 1, 2014 11:57 AM
    principletrade principletrade May 2, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    I think Venezuela has got people spooked. I don't think it should though. Last quarter Venezuela only accounted for 40 basis points of revenues 0.4%.

    Voxx holds about $7.5M in US-Dollar denominated bonds issued by Venezuela. I don't know if they own them at par, or at a lower cost, but the last I checked those bonds were trading around 70 cents on the dollar. Bank of America actually has a "buy" rating on those bonds. but ultimately if Voxx sold them right now they'd write off about $2.3M.

    Automotive electronics is the largest segment of their business and auto sales have been strong and the automotive aftermarket suppliers have also been strong over the last several quarter. I'd say premium audio has been flat or slightly weak due to weather this winter. Accessories has probably seen declines in revenue because Voxx is exiting the market on low-margin items like clock-radios , voice recorders, etc.

    I think revenues and earnings could be lower this year, but I don't expect any events that are so bad that it will change the long term outlook here.

    Automotive aftermarket will continue to be strong, and I'd expect OEM electronics will only become more and more prevalent in the future, and I think Voxx is involved appropriately with stereo, security, accident avoidance, etc.

    Premium audio will continue to do fine, I think the Klipsch S4ii ear-buds durability issues were a dissapointment, but that probably isn't too significant (and they're being phased out in favor of the fantastic R6 buds now anyway)

    I don't think everything is going to be doom and gloom.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sold recently

    by mchlr963 May 1, 2014 11:57 AM
    principletrade principletrade May 6, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    I won't lie, the bond issue is something that I don't really know all the answers. From what I read they pay 10% to 11% yields right now, and that's why I think they have a "Buy" rating from some agencies.

    When you consider how small Venezuela is in relation to total revenues I don't think that anything that happens there will ultimately change the future earnings potential for VOXX. VOXX has had bigger one time events from patent suits than anything that could occur in Venezuela and those events seem to get swept under-the-rug because patent trolling has been such a nagging reality in the past for electronics makers. (Hopefully some of the new patent trolling legislations will reduce legal costs. Many of these suits in the past have simply been cheaper to settle than to litigate)

    There doesn't seem to be anything holding this stock up. It keeps drifting lower and lower, but it's drifting lower on virtually zero-volume. That is, more often than not, a decent buy indicator. (Reverse head and shoulders pattern) Not that I'm a fantastic chart technician.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    jamn

    by abodeib2 May 6, 2014 11:54 AM
    principletrade principletrade May 6, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    Meh, I'd wait for a pullback to buy, there's always a pullback here. Buy under 35 cents and you're probably safe.

  • Reply to

    Today looks bad

    by zelkid May 6, 2014 10:21 AM
    principletrade principletrade May 6, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    Comps were OK for Pollo Tropical, Taco Cabana saw weak comps again, SSS down 2%, so their biggest chain continues to be their weakest. I've seen plenty of stocks with similar growth and lower debt levels that traded at much, much, lower multiples (BKE is one example that comes to mind)

    A significant increase in their earnings stemmed from interest savings, but I don't think you can complain too much about that.

  • Reply to

    jamn

    by abodeib2 May 6, 2014 11:54 AM
    principletrade principletrade May 6, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    I hope you are correct. I own plenty of this stock. I'm not selling now, but I'm not buying more now either. If it goes up, great. If it gets cheap again, I'll weigh the facts then.

  • Reply to

    Boom!

    by vanwinkle37 May 7, 2014 9:38 AM
    principletrade principletrade May 7, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    The report I read was incorrect yesterday. Foot traffic was down 2% at Taco Cabana, but revs were up 0.8%.

    Revenues missed the analyst estimate, but not by too much.

    I think the stock is responding appropriately considering how much it has dropped recently.

  • Reply to

    Y'all know wrestling is fake, right?

    by cwine43 Apr 29, 2014 4:10 PM
    principletrade principletrade May 7, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    I agree, the "Hedge fund conspiracy" is a common excuse when something is getting beaten up.

    Maybe it's actually dropping because stocks like this attract lot of buy-side speculators and when the price starts dropping, they start selling.

    The fact that the TV deal STILL hasn't surfaced and the OTT network numbers were awful (and will almost certainly get worse after the 6 month commitment is over) mean that this stock is correcting back to a more appropriate level. Remember this stock was around $8 a year ago with arguably better fundamentals.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    You will kick yourself later

    by bigjim1437 May 7, 2014 12:29 PM
    principletrade principletrade May 7, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    Office Depot discontinued MC. That probably accounted for a significant part the reduction in revenues. Nobody was going to buy the "rasta" coffee for the office though. It wasn't a good fit to try and retail it in those stores. Office Depot wasn't and isn't going to sell Marley Coffee to some "honky in a suit" (sarcasm).

    MC keeps getting smaller chains to carry the product. (Where it's a lot more likely to move off the shelves)

    Nothing alarming, but nothing too exciting about the numbers. Mother Parkers wasn't scared to buy the shares at market prices a week or two ago, so I wouldn't be too concerned as an owner.... I personally wouldn't be buying at significantly higher prices than Mother Parkers though (and they were buying at 34 cents)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    You will kick yourself later

    by bigjim1437 May 7, 2014 12:29 PM
    principletrade principletrade May 7, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    Marley is getting into stores though. The Mother Parkers deal is supposed to finance some additional advertising. That should help move things off of the shelf. I think the current price drop might be a buy opportunity.

    MC sorely needs to do more promotion and advertisement though. It's their biggest problem. The product is rated well and has a good reputation, but that doesn't matter if nobody knows about it.

    Sentiment: Hold

AFCE
40.14-0.63(-1.55%)Jan 17 4:00 PMEST

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