Light. My strategy is going to be-- follow perron and Paxton to their next company(ies) and short the yahookrappshit out of that stock.
Good post gator. I think 2Q will be a lot better from cash point of view. I'd bet +5 to +15m from where it was 1Q.
Up to 3.07m short shares from 2.7m. A 10% increase. This is before the tmed expiration. I like the short interest increasing. Start building in the recoil...! If Perron et al don't screw things up.
Equity raise is off table to help pay debt. The stock plummeted 28% on about a 2% dilution. A mere 5m or so shares caused a 35c price drop. Imagine what would happen with a raise to bring in $350m. Yikes.
Stream. Convertible bond. Takeover.
I see one/all of those in their future.
Gator, although he might not willingly throw them under the bus, he is quite capable of not getting out of the way and getting run over by that same bus.
I will continue to beat this drum to help those who aren't as in the know about TC...... Do not buy more shares until board of directors and execs buy in bulk. It really is that simple.
Rhetorically speaking.... you know what would help in alleviating a lot of the "fear"? BOD and Execs buying a boat load of shares.
I wrote to her at RGLD not that long ago.... her response.
"We believe that Thompson Creek has a bright future.
In the event of a sale of the mine, our contract with its current terms is designed to follow the asset. The senior lender is required to honor our contract if they take possession or sell the project.
In the event of default, we only have the tranche $350 million of senior bonds standing in front of us from a credit perspective (and those bonds are currently trading at a very strong $104.76, which would suggest the market is not expecting a default on those bonds). We have a first priority security interest in our 52.25% of the gold in ore and concentrate stockpiles, and a first priority security interest in the assets at Mount Milligan and would be second in line only behind the $350m senior bond—all the other bonds and creditors (except for a few equipment leases) are subordinate to our interest. "
Again, buying any shares at all without BOD and Execs first buying in bulk is a moronic move. No other way to put it. Pains me to say with such a large position in the stock.
Perron et al better be ready for a very brutal Q2CC in Aug. "We are analyzing our options, blah blah blah" aint gonna cut it. They've known this was coming for years. It's like that scene in Top Gun where Ice keeps yapping at Maverick to take the shot but he wont / cant. Ends up crashing at sea. Seems like same happening here. Analysis paralysis, cant take the shot.... forcing this thing to crash. Ugh.
12, yes yes yes. BUT... there is a tall / thick reinforced concrete wall on the train tracks that TC has to get through to make it to the 20+ years. Put another way, would you want to be on a jetliner that is about to take off from say LaGuardia airport where there is a huge 100ft x 100 ft x 100 ft sink hole in the middle of the runway?
The problem is the big nut bond due in 2.5 years. Push that out 10 years with same coupon, and there's no problem. Well, much much much smaller problem because then they have a long runway to deleverage.
I'd love to buy another 50k shares to avg down. But there is absolutely no way I will buy a single share until I get warmer fuzzier from mgmt that they are committed, have urgency, have direct skin in the game. Because mgmt isn't buying, it scares me big time! Emotion is keeping me in right now... The emotion of paper losses right now. Each buying $25k in shares will definitely send a loud signal to the market that 'we have more info than you do. Market has way over punished us. I'm taking advantage of your mistake by buying. Etc.".
Good job dhunt.
She's playing games with answers but I guess that's her job when dealing with a bad hand.
Jack, it's not a good idea to buy until the board/executives start buying in bulk. There is no bottom until that happens. They are effectively the ones who should determine where the floor is.