jatrudel is wrong or simply made an honest mistake. The short interest is certainly climbing. It each each of the last 6 or so consecutive reporting periods. I believe that the next report which will be as of 12/15 (which I guess in reality really means as of the close on Fri) will be even higher... probably around 31M shares short.
Here's what I am tracking / observing. The next short interest status date is coming up in a couple of days. The short interest has been trending up, setting up for an eventually violent spring loaded release. In recent days, we have seen multi-million dollar volumes which is extremely heavy.
Here's my take. It's shorts piling on. It's high volume. The Williams %R, MACD, Stochastics are all showing heavy sell pressure. I'm thinking thats a pretty good sign that shorts have piled on in very heavy fashion. Those same indicators have eased up just a little bit in the last couple of trading days. I think the downward trend is over. Not enough new shorts to keep the price down so seeing a natural little bounce in the price as a result. If new shorts dont pile on again soon, this could creep up quite nicely.
The metrics have been showing oversold/down pressure with the price decline since late Oct. I think this is going to have a $1-$1.50 pop (Mid-high $3s) by early Feb.
Dec 2017: $350M... 6 months later: Jun 2018: $350M ... year after that: May 2019: $200M. They have basically 4 yrs from today to deal with the first balloon. The cash burn over the first few quarters in 2014 will be critical. If they dont need a cash infusion and can either paydown or more stable to 'refi' at lower rate, this is a total non-issue. I am a finance guy, but Ultra knows far more about Mining/TC than I ever will. I think he's right.
Metric: Follow the YTM on the 3 issues over the next year. If the spread vs Fed bills narrows, we are on the road to a multi-bagger.
It took 20 mins to watch a 7 min video but I thought it was great. He seems a lot sharper and generally "with it" than the previous CEO to be honest. This guy seems to command a better grasp of business ops - not to mention the problems at TC.
I guess this is battle of "who has a better spreadsheet" between Perron and analysts like TD, etc. I'd like to take a better look at the debt obligations of how much and when those balloon payments are due. The first one is 2017 (4 yrs from now) but for how much??? When/how much are the ones that follow?
Looks to me like he's focused on getting the balance sheet back into fighting shape. Thats a good thing. You'd be surprised how many CEOs dont think that way (ahem... previous CEO obviously didnt have good forecasting/etc vision).
My confindence is up on TC but still guarded a bit. Need to see if he can deliver. Looks promising though.
We'll find out next Wed (12/11) what the new short interest level is on TC as of 11/30. My guess is that it will be somewhere around 31M shares (its 30M as of previous dissemination). But the "real" short pile on started last week which wont be known until the Fri right after Xmas. I bet that one will show around 33M share short.
Larry, yes maybe you have been hearing it since $6. The problem is that the short interest is proportionally far heavier today than it was in early 2012. Back then it was "only" 10-13 days volume to cover. Today that is up around 21 days and still climbing. In other words this spring is getting more and more loaded and when it release even just a little bit it is going to do so violently. Just like it did at KKD. It became a 4-5 bagger over a year period because, in good part, the spring finally released when it started reporting moderate good / no more bad news. I suspect something similar will happen here if they can get a couple of good quarters from MtM.
700K shares over 3 years. I'd say that way trumps the compensation. He gets that stock up to say $10 and thats a cool $7 million. Way more than the $900k or so in compensation. Trust me, he's motivated on the stock price.
The biggest question, in my mind, is .... chances that TC will need to raise cash (equity, another RGLD type deal, or debt) in the next 12-24 months?
Larry, are you saying that the $1 is what MM is worth to the TC stock price? So if $2.75 today... MM up and running should crank it to $3.75? Just trying to understand the conversation, etc.
In my unfortunate opinion, my gut says that this is going to get a little worse before it gets better. The problem is that "the better" is going to come fast and furious with the shorts causing this thing to overshoot on the high side. Shall see. I am very long this stock. Hoping it bounces soon, fast, hard to the upside! =)
Am I wrong, Ultra? The company reported better than expected quarter.... a modest profit even. This is with the "burden" of MM. If that is the baseline, then wouldn't MM be accretive to cash flow (and earnings). Not saying it has be ring all the bells but is accretive. It's servicing the debt, building cash with that monkey on its back. I would think that once MM starts producing, it can only get better (presuming gold, cu, etc prices are comparatively stable). No?
To my "friends" on the liberal left, all I can say is that I sincerely hope you still to that Obamacare thing as long as possible. Please do. In fact, I strongly encourage you to call Debbie Wasserman Schultz at the DNC and tell her to run ads in every Dem seat district promoting Obamacare and that member's support of it. That would be a fantastic idea.
I already doubled down. Maybe do so again? http://www.forbes.com/sites/energystockchannel/2013/11/14/tc-crosses-critical-technical-indicator/?partner=yahootix
Short interest on this thing is through the roof. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tc/short-interest. I bet when the new short numbers update after tomorrow's close, its going to be even higher still.
Its now over 30 days volume to cover. When, not if, this thing turns around its going to be fast and violent for the shorts. I went against the shorts on KKD for 3 years and ended up making a ton of money. It went from less than $3 to now $25 in very short time frame. From $7 to $25 in less than a year... thanks to the heavy shorts finally having to cover as their outlook improved.
I see so many parallels to this stock, TC. I'll buy even more if it dips even lower.
You are on drugs. I almost doubled my share position with release. They beat the estimates by some 18c or there abouts. Thats a huge beat. Ended with far more cash on hand than expected. Overall, it was a great quarter, better than what was expected. To me, the miniscule bounce reaction is more about waiting to hear what the outlook is. Given the recent history with Mt Milligan project earlier, I cant blame that. The bottom line, though, is that the quarter was superb. Costs look to be in a good position. I dont see why outlook would not be positive. I think this thing will see the bounce tomorrow! (Some in today's after market, but you cant really go by that). I see this flirting with $4 within a week.
I think their bounch at the announcement will be more about their outlook than their quater numbers, though I bet they beat the estimates by a bit. I wont be surprised if TC flirts with $4 this week.
Why oh why did I get out at $12? I rode it from below $3 to $12. Should've stayed in. Oh well. Taking a profit is still good thing. I just won't go back in. I've gone off to my next big spec play. TC. IN AT $3. It's at $3.25 now but I think it will hit teens by late 2014. Shall see.