I cant believe that the PUTS have a higher premium than their corresponding CALLS (yes, when balanced vs strikes. the stock is at $3 even, so...). One can make a mint selling Jan16 $2 puts and buying $4 calls.
Btw, it only looks like a 1.8-2.0M volume kind of day so I doubt a squeeze is what is solely causing this. Maybe a contributing factor, but not THE factor. I wonder...
Great find on the info. But I'd prefer Perron stay clearly focused on what he has already for the next couple years. After they refi or payoff the debt, then....
This Friday is the short interest dissemination day (after close). Will be interesting to see what the change is from 3/31 of 34M to 4/15. My guess is a smaller number but...???? I know that a sizable chunk of the short interest is the arb with tMeds. But I've always wondered how much of it is naked-shorts. We'll find out in 13 months. ;-)
We all seem excited about May 13 cc. Keep in mind that q2 is when the full joy should come to pass as we will have the full quarter of higher moly price and ramp up etc. Q1 should be a good call.... q2 will simply be far better!
It's trading around the middle of the conversion range. Dont over complicate it... buy TC and wait for the cash register to ring.
I wonder if TD will drop coverage of TC sometime this year after screwing the pooch this hard.
If their cash position is $200+M... and moly prices on the rise, it's going to be hard (though I am sure Perron will try to do what he can to sandbag) for him to not raise the $75-$100M downside cash at least a little bit. I mean, with that much cash on the books and metal prices where they are.... keeping with that range runs the risk of actually backfiring -- "what massive cost surprises, production problems, etc are they trying to hide that they'll drop $100M greenbacks within the next 3-4 months???".
Why the heck would a small O&G company also own/run a moly mine? A huge red flag for me. I wish whoever is invested in it luck but I certainly wouldnt touch it. Good luck though, hope it pays off.
Today the tMed is trading at 5.01 conversion shares TC... essentially midpoint of the conversion. I agree... just by the TC long and enjoy the scenic ride up. Trying to arb the arb is a fool's errand at this point.
I dont know USEG aside from the 5 mins I spent looking at it. I lost complete interest when I saw the business mix of O&G and moly, regardless of the history. They should spin or sell one off (either one) and stick to something closer to home so to speak. A company that small in such vastly different capital intensive businesses is a nightmare train wreck waiting to happen. Good luck though, sincerely.
Not sure I follow your question or point. But the initial $25pps also included the dividend/interest payment stream of ~41c/quarter. I never looked at the tMed prospectus to see how they will calculate the exact converstion in May 2015.
Carl, I get your point, but the math is mixed up, I am afraid. In terms of the #s, you are comparing apples with oranges. $50 increase for Au is roughly 3.9% increase whereas your cu and mo examples are ~6.7% and ~5.3% increases, respectively. If you're going to use $50 Au as the "benchmark" for $7M reve, then you'll have to rerun the #s for Cu at +0.13 and Mo +0.50. Au=~$7M. Cu=~$12M. Mo=~$14M. Your point remains, but numbers are different. This is now a more diversified mining company accordingly. That's a good thing in my book.
Ultra.... you bark about refi and the make-good penalties in doing so. But if the bonds are at a price premium which will drop back to par anyway, isn't it a wash for TC to simply buy back the bonds at current prices with a refi?
I think we agree that its nice to see adult supervision (Perron) running the place now that Kevin is out.
As always, thanks Ultra.