At $3 cu and $1100 au, the net revenue (taking RGLD into account) is $500M at ramped up volumes. Those represent 5-10% lower unit prices than what they are today. On the upside of say $3.50 cu and $1300 au, we are looking at $580M in revenue. Do whatever math you want to figure the costs side of the equation.... regardless, it is very very very hard to see how this thing aint a viable cash flow producing pig in latter 2014. Once it is proven to be a CF pig, refi will be a breeze.
Reminds me of when I was invested in KKD (Krispy Kreme) several years ago. Everyone screaming from rooftops that they cant survive because of the huge debt load at really bad terms. Well, wouldnt you know it... KKD was about to renegotiate/refi the debt into longer term obligations which brought down their int exp and freed up that much more CF which was then used to pay down (in effect) the principal (buy debt down to manageable levels). The stock went from mid $2 to $25 in 3 years and is now in the $20 range after profit taking.
My point is this, Ultra is right. The company will be able to refi the debt into more manageable terms. That will take the spectre of default / bankruptcy off the table and this puppy will spike enormously as shorts bid it up to cover.
I now have 32k shares. I'm looking for a favorable MACD and W%R indication of when it MIGHT be leveling off to buy another chunk to get me to 40k shares. Nowhere near the 128k shares... I dont have THAT strong a stomach. ;-) We still have about 7-8 trading days left this year so who knows what will happen.
I am with Ultra though... if this thing is tax sell off, etc... then it should have a nice spike in early new year to alleviate the overselling the past few weeks.
I know. I am just saying that this stock has a long history of rapid and dramatic price swings. A 3-4 bagger by 2016 is very possible, imo.
Thanks Ultra. I looked up the bond charts on morningstar website. The first bond due 2017 is trading at 6.73% YTM like you just mentioned. Interesting that its trading at a higher price TODAY (when the hysteria of bankruptcy is rampant) than it was when it was first issued about a year ago.
You heard right. I caught the same thing. Except I'm not as familiar with mining so I don't really know what that means exactly. If anyone can explain that would be great!
The shorts interest has increased from around 26M shares to 30M in several months. I am sure that this next dissemination day will show even more short interest. They made a tidy little profit the last few months and I'd bet they'll look to cover and go home happy within the next couple of weeks. Thats when the buying season will start in earnest.
Shorts dont want to be caught in a protracted squeeze that turns into a multi-bagger against them. I see this thing flirting with $3 again by late Jan time frame.
Part of me agrees with you. But lets not also forget Facebook / Zuckerberg. That guy was pounded mercilously for months after the IPO. People wanted his head on a platter for not making public comments. Then what a difference a year makes... stock recovered from around $19 to mid $50s and now he's the golden boy again. Give Perron some slack.
TX, wow. I just looked at the LVS charts going back to 2009. WOW WOW WOW. At it's low point in early 2009 it was at $1.75. Now that stock is trading at almost $78. That's a 43-bagger if held on to it. Kicking yourself for getting out earlier? Dont sweat it... its never a bad thing to take a profit. =)
And by the way, dont think for a second that the shorts dont know about this stock's violent price spike history. They definitely dont want to be caught on that end of the stick which is one reason why I think A) a short squeeze is inevitable and B) it'll be far more energetic spike than ordinary cases.
It did it before. But you are right... who knows?!?!?! I do firmly believe that this thing far more of a "broken stock" than it is a "broken company". There is a huge difference! It did make a 13-bagger move in 16 month period before. Anything can happen with this puppy.
Pho, I am talking about "back in the day" it did that spike. Look at June 2006 to October 2007. The precise numbers are:
June 19 2006: $ 1.74
Oct 22, 2007: $25.65
I am NOT saying that it will do that again... my point is that, IMO, this thing is currently spring loaded and when it unleashes it will move violently and wicked fast!!!
The last time the stock was in the $1.90 range, it went from $1.90 to about $25 (a 13-bagger) in literally one year! Just sayin'. This thing can move darn fast. Especially with such a huge short interest. =)
Short interest has grown by several million shares in the past 2-3 months. They made a tidy little profit pushing it down. But with a year like this, they just might want to take those profits and go home, just like the flip side are pushing tax loss sales. When the tax loss sellers go home next week, the shorts are going to look to cover and lock in those profits. That spells out a nice little short squeeze. =)
Picked up another 5k shares today.
This really is a dumb comment. You're blaming the recent drop on Perron? Thats like blaming put the blame on next year's Houston Texans coach for this year's 2-14 season. Way to go there, champ. Give him a year before you start thinking about bashing him. Maybe he will suck. Maybe he'll take this thing to $20. Who knows. But to blame him after a few weeks on the job is #$%$. (yes, i know its not PC to use that word, but nevertheless fitting).
EVERYONE has different time horizons, stomach for risk, etc. So obviously views will varying accordingly. For me, it's simple, I take the Buffetesque approach... what is the likelihood this stock TC will be higher in 5 years? What is the likelihood it will be lower in 5 years? Act accordingly.
Considering that NOTHING, I mean nothing!, has changed in the last 2 months or so with respect to TC while gold and cu have traded in relatively (% basis) band -- yet TC has tanked. In other words, Ultra is right, what is different today with a $1.90 stock price from a $3+ stock price 2-3 months ago? Not much = short seller pile on (my contention) AND tax loss selling (Ultras contention). There should be a bounce in early Jan with TC.
Ultra, is there a link somewhere you know of which gives a 30k ft level overview of the mining process and what MM's might look like for example. Overall process from "excavation" to customer shipment. ??
I agree that the article is a little weak. He mostly just parroting what the TD folks said. Big deal. If they're not going to make any announcements soon, I'd like to someone on the board/exec level make even a token share purchase. Something, anything that signals confidence to other shareholders. I get the whole diversify away from your employer thing, etc... but these are extraordinary times.
Perron doesnt strike me as the type that would make decisions outside of what makes strategic/financial sense. Meaning, if he's closing a mine op down it would be Endako over TC. The more I "see" and "how" from Perron the more we realize how much of a bafoon the previous CEO was. Shhheeeez.
saw article that toronoto's barrick gold corp is laying off 1500 of its 5000 workers in the argentina/chile mine and suspending/mothballing the a project there. i am presuming that this will 'help' TC as it shutsdown some capacity. Thoughts on TC impact???
Sentiment: Strong Buy