Keep your eyes on India's economy. I think it's better correlated to price of gold than anything else ,
Meanwhile, I wonder how yahoo finance can show tc with s beta of 1.3!!!! 3.3 would probably be more accurate. Lol.
Dang auto correct. Chances
I think it just seems that way cuz strikes offered every $1 interval. With so many Chan we to be right around (any) strike price at exp it just seems like it. I doubt anything nefarious. Also volumes around the last 3-4 explorations don't SEEM to support the conspiracy theory.... I would think volumes would be very high each time.
Value traps usually only happens to stocks that are transitioning from one investment category to another.... ie investor base is changing. Typically with growth to income or value stock thesis. Aapl, msft, csco, intc, etc. That's not the case here. We're going thru a multi phase change.... distressed to value and growth. That's why I think it's a "violent" multibagger in 12-24 mos. This rarely happens.... hard to find. Both bases will bid this up to their comfort levels very quickly.
Its down days like this that really tempt me to selloff 200 AAPL shares and plunge that into TC too. Very tempting. The only argument I can think of to stop me from doing is that it would increase my avg price. Logical argument or not, it's keeping me redoubling what I already doubled in TC.
I dont quite understand why someone would take the risks of trading around this stock rather than just taking that same money and going long.... less risk and still a winner pick. With trading it, you could lose money all the way up the charts by timing things wrong. Why bother? But to each their own.
Yes, I think the EOY pps for TC will be north of $5... and I did say it pre-moly price spike.
For months, TC has been saying low point for cash will be $75M-$100M in Q3. When Q3 rolls around and they're sitting on $200M (not a calc'ed #, just a higher number to signify they sandbagged big time) instead of looking for spare change in their office sofas to help make ends meet, I think that will be the point where even the biggest analyst haters will have to through in the towel --- presuming of course they dont cry uncle before that time.
The stock is trading today at price/BV of 0.44 --- because of the bs solvency nonsense. Take off the solvency anchor (say +0.3) and a modest pat on the back for MM's ramping (say +0.1) brings you to 0.84.... which gives you $5.50 pps. Add in moly price spike and might be talking a pretty nifty premium on top of that... so $6, IMHO, is the floor of where 2014 will close out (barring WW3, etc).
$hit, I looked at my wifes portfolio and it was WAYYYY conservative. I've never seen that % in a money market account, gov notes, etc. So, aggressive be I. ;-)
Tnavarro, i use to work for the same company you do. Likely know many of the same people. Small world.
Speaking of metallurgy for O&G industry... what are the DOT petition cars (DOT111 replacements) made of? Contain moly? If so, the transition of those cars to the new standard(s) will be another huge source of consumption!
I tend to do more "range analysis". I am getting $300M cash as a conservative view (meaning $2.90 cu, $1250 au, and $12 mo) and $370M cash at $3.2/$1400/$14 with volumes at the low and high ranges of their guidance. Considering that Perron is looking like he's going to be a sandbagger the whole way, I'd probably bet closer to the $370M number based on that....
Its late. Sorry for the typos.
Moly is all about Europe right now so wont much impact from China news. With Au as the byproduct at MM, TC copper is dang competitive at any price. If TC drops at the open based on China economic news release, buy the dip!
Moly is all about Europe right now so who not much impact on China news. With Au as the byproduct, TC copper is dang competitive at any price. If TC drops at the open based on China economic news release, buy the dip!
Anyone run the numbers to better estimate ("guesstimate") the cash line for the CC? Curious what some of you might be "thinking".
If you were expecting a turnaround to materialize overnight, your expectations need to be put in check. This is a MULTI-YEAR play... not an overnight hit.
I for one cannot wait for the tMeds to expire next year!!!! Just to make this whole thing cleaner for everyone as far as knowing for sure what the naked short vs arb shorts were.
Youre a rocket scientist for figuring that out... no one knows what the price will be day-to-day. #$%$, what we "know" is that the price will be significantly higher a year from now that it is today. The interim guessing is watercooler chatter not unlike fantasy football banter with your friends. May not know what Brees is going to throw for a particular weekend (like you said, guessing) but you do "know" that he's going to be one of the top QBs in the league and among highest point totals at the end of the season. Anyway.... chill. Relax. Just enjoy the ride up.
Not to beat up on the guy, but "Shares of Thompson Creek Metals (TC) closed up 9.4% Friday, April 11, as the company’s first quarter earnings report showed that the miner made essential progress in its transition from a molybdenum producer to a molybdenum/copper/gold producer with an emphasis on copper and gold."
Um, it wasn't Q1 earnings that was released... it was production only.
That said, I agree with Dragon, just seems like a conservative view of the company. It's hard to envision a scenario where moly sustained-drops back into the $9s any time in the next 18-24 months. Ultra and Carl are right about moly having structural issues which will keep its price elevated for a while. And MM is CF positive under just about every scenario... it's nice to have Au as a byproduct! =)