ummmm ... their cash reserves are shrinking. much faster than anticipated. new king. substantial pay increases for gov. workers, war in Yemen, increased military costs, increased home-security costs. soon, as military continues fight in Yemen they may need to 'refill' military hardware inventory - more large expense.
Estimated that they need energy at appx. $100 to cover. Sovereign reserves are depleting. For the first time since 2007, SA has gone to global bond markets for $4B. Soon more. If they have so much cash, why the need to add debt?
as of mar 31 sec filing, omega owned $189MM of CIM shares. In fact, during that quarter he increased his holdings size about 15%.
MILL issued a very strong clarification the next day.
They are NOT contemplating BK.
Clarification included some details on financing status, loan payoffs, and new funding negotiations, revenues received.
Are they still fragile? yes, absolutely. Can they work out. Time will tell.
I am seeing various levels of fluctuation in different CEFs with different asset classes.
You may want to take a look at what GOF is holding in their portfolio. Probably explains a lot of the movement?
Hmmm ... Have to somewhat disagree here.
Maybe ... perhaps ... short-term yes.
Long-term? sacrificing energy? S&P? Exports? Total stock market Leading to Total economy meltdown? How does that work? How would the $Dollar be sustainable if the country entered another recession, unemployment spiked, productivity slid, GDP crashed? What would prop the $Dollar then? sadly .... maybe ... another manufactured War?? -probably not on Obama's watch, IMO.
Yes, China has been accumulating Gold for quite a few years. Very deliberate. Even at high prices they were buying. So ... probably implies - method to their madness.?. and, yes, China has explicitly expressed determination to have an alternative world currency than the $USDollar. As other nations have indicated desire for this also. China has taken the lead, however, they are certainly not alone.
We appear to be in the midst of a quite impactful global influence shift. not implying bad or good. simply acknowledging. And ... just perhaps .... the U.S. Gov & Economic structure does not know what to do with this change?
empires rise and fall throughout history. nothing is permanent...
JMHO ... of course ...
I might be wrong, or only partially inaccurate, but I believe that PIK can be more than simply rolling deferred interest into loan-due payments. PIK also can include additional loan principle value or some other alternative asset principle value added into the total accumulation.
As a holder of a number of BDCs, some well-respected, others currently in doghouse - almost every one of them has PIK line items, if you walk carefully through the 10Ks &Qs.
I do not believe that most deals are really originated that way. However, it would be common in the loan covenants to include some consideration, depending on circumstances.
JMHO of course ....
yes. though not so strange. gas seems to be coupled / associated with oil in perception.
saw a couple of news items about gas supplies increased. however, the index has been steadily rising and futures out 2016 - 2017 are certainly healthy.
have been adding to Prefs.
so Greece submitted a revised proposal last Thursday / Friday that came within a hair of meeting almost all creditor demands. Media reports indicated that it was well within what creditors had been demanding for months. Other media reports indicated that creditors may even be willing to lighten-up on demands as Greece has come forward with more rational projections.
Now .... even that seems 'off the table' and Germany is demanding even more concessions?!?!? Aside from the breakdown in trust and seeming absence of any personal relationship potentials, what is it that Germany Really wants? And, what is it that Greece can possibly give? Really?
I noticed it also, Eric. Took the opportunity to add more pref shares and cost-average down a bit.
I think you are probably right, some shelf shares were used to raise some cash. have seen this more frequently in other companies in the past 6 - 8 months.
Personally, I also believe that the NM preferreds are quite oversold. yields relative to other firms are higher than the firms current stable standing warrants. I suppose it is a combination of energy volatility, continued shipping oversupply, concerns about South America economics, China and Greece. Lots of world turmoil of late. Still ... I am confident that NM can sail the waves prudently.
JMHO ... of course...
pardon if i misspoke. did not know cow's history. just fyi ... among other things, i too am a capital markets grad school prof for over 15 years, as well as a money manager.
wasn't trying to talk down, simply add some context to the derivative observation. quite often these instruments are misunderstood, especially on yahoo boards.
apologies if i offended anyone....
end of summer is not here yet. july has just started. end of august when kids go back to school. may not see any significant movement till after labor day in september.
jus' musing ....
i think that is sound insight and action.
rather than hand-wringing about falling PPS, the current market action presents attractive buying opportunities. I have held PSF since around $24, selling portions above $26.5 to cost-average down. tho, really, divs have been steady for many years.
almost all reasons for current price drop .... Fed, interest rates, greece, etc.... and ... lots of other div-paying CEFs/ETFs are re-pricing also.
getting quite attractive again ....
Not true. a very broad statement. How long have you been putting money into BDCs? Or REITs, or other dividend-yielding sectors?
Issuing shares is pretty standard practice, even below NAV. How else are they supposed to grow? Yes, sometimes dilutive, and sometimes not in shareholders best interests, and sometimes ... funds are put to work quickly and are accretive and company profits and grows..
Yet .... almost always, in virtually every BDC or REIT or MLP .... there are loud, unhappy and quite often, inexperienced voices on these boards criticizing managements plans. Makes one wonder what they are really doing here?
JMHO ... of course...
Not sure that you realize this ....
Derivatives are very often ... Hedging instruments.
Do you know what that means?
just curious ...
you guys still around? since the original common wipeout? did you re-load after the restructure, or just hang-out here for fun? much time on hands?
just curious ....
A Greek 'referendum' is mostly meaningless to the rest of the EU including the creditors. It is a manufactured sideshow by Tsipras & Co. As many here on the board have stated, and indeed, virtually all of the news outlets, it is way too late for a 'referendum'. Greece will default first. The only beneficiary of this referendum is Tsipras. He can claim deniability from all of his questionable promises due to 'The will of the people'. This might serve to get him off the hook in Greece. Maybe. However, it will do absolutely nothing to preserve any type of respect, reputation and negotiating power within the EU.
At the moment, sunday afternoon .... looks like U.S. market futures are having a more frightful reaction than E.U markets.
well ... here's the thing about the Prefs that is curious to me ....
- SB just declared a div for the common. even $0.01 is enough to require divs for the Prefs. So ... by regulation it immediately becomes defacto that divs will be paid on Prefs. And ... unlike common, Pref-divs are set. So ... typically this would assure investors and - the yield is quite attractive. Prefs should rise to the occasiom.
sure - SB common 'might' eventually have more upside. that is fine if one is more attracted to growth performance and .... accepts the increased risk. Prefs are more targeted to income, less risk placements. and ... 11%+ yield is highly outstanding if it lasts. there is a lot that can be done with constant cash flows.
I really do not think the story is so much about Greece as it is the BDI, shipping rates and ship turnover / inventory. Most 'Greek' shippers are not domiciled in Greece.
to each his own.
just IMO of course.
Sounds more like an opinion than an informed experience or analysis.
A Spanish bank? Have you looked into SAN, even a little?
By far, one of the most diversified financials globally. Far more than a 'Spanish bank'.
Greece may certainly cause some temporary volatility in the EU money sector. Though if you are opining about particular institutions, you may want to compare DB, RBS, BAC and others to SAN.
JMHO ... of course..
yes, admittedly, i am one who does not believe that a grexit would cause that much economic mayhem.
market psych mayhem - yes, probably. real economic distress? probably not. and .. i think a lot of that is already self-contained within eu.
would greece become similar to argentina, walking the pennyless desert for a decade? maybe.
so.... yeah ... u.s. market maybe short-term spiky reaction. long-term? not so much.
though certainly other factors like interest rate spike, fed moves, over-valued firms and markets, economic slowdown, and simply lack of sustainable momentum would be factors contributing to a 5 - 10% decline.
jmho ... worth what it cost -:) of course ....
question - what is the balance of keybank debt now?
they paid down $10mm. which seems significant. i remember some mention that the keybank financing had been paid off. if not, as best as i can determine, looks like maybe $18.5mm remains? if so, given the alaska rebates due, that could be paid down substantially, with funds left over. not to mention the rest of 2015 oil futures booked at $96+? and, as of now, seems like oil is channeling around $60/bbl. would not be surprised if it does drift up to between $65-70. if so, wouldn't that be sufficient to stabilize mill?