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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

priviet 50 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2015 1:33 PM Member since: Aug 8, 2006
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  • Reply to

    jrfillion

    by alankane77 Aug 25, 2015 5:08 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 26, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    Hmmmm ... Discover typically offers me 0%. Has for many years.

    It is not about 'desperate folks'. It is about leverage, securitization and risk assumptions.
    this is what RAS business is about, as a REIT.

    There are other REITs that do simpler business models. Perhaps some investors, or posters on a few of these Yahoo-boards, are not familiar with all the different types of REITs?

    just curious...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    why people are selling

    by choutony Jul 30, 2015 1:51 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 24, 2015 11:42 PM Flag

    Technically, Kip, the prospective FED rate increase May be up to 25 basis points. Not 25% - unless one uses any percentage increase from 0. 25 basis points is Only one quarter of 1.00%. Market is shaking in fear of that!?
    Considering, historically, average 10year treasury note was 4.00 - 5.00% thats 400 - 500 basis points.
    Yes, 25bp will be priced into cost-of-money for lenders, like banks. How much would that increase a typical 8.00% loan? Or, yes, even a mortgage?

    Just curious...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Are we seeing a return of Alchemy?

    by logicaldeduction Aug 24, 2015 12:08 AM
    priviet priviet Aug 24, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    LogicalD is right-on.
    I too was buying REIT debt heavily in 08/09 as well as other financials. I still hold some iStar Prefs with a cost basis around $5.00!
    Yes, it was amazing how quickly they acted when needed. Alchemy was abundant in other REITs also, like NRF, RAS, and more.
    There is some relevance here with energy.

    JMHO ... of course...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Debt Question and Preferred Shares

    by workallday997 Aug 18, 2015 8:56 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 21, 2015 9:35 PM Flag

    If you look at their latest SEC submissions @ IR, they list debt and other obligations and payment expenses. For example::

    Non-controlling interests in net income (loss) 3,638 3,998 1,654 7,636 3,333
    Preferred unitholders’ interest in net income (loss) 4,791 2,719 2,719 7,510 5,438
    General Partner’s interest in net income (loss) 6,153 3,764 3,696 9,917 7,639
    Limited partners’ interest in net income (loss) 93,282 (23,709) (11,869) 69,573 (11,188)
    Weighted-average number of common units:
    – basic 92,413,598 92,391,826 85,529,102 92,402,772 85,492,401
    – diluted 92,457,480 92,391,826 85,529,102 92,470,600 85,492,401

    and ....

    Total current liabilities 889,302 792,157 573,763
    Long-term debt 2,195,010 2,311,922 2,178,009
    Derivative instruments 236,208 282,812 257,754
    In-process revenue contracts 69,450 72,628 75,805
    Other long-term liabilities 60,033 55,178 44,238
    Total liabilities 3,450,003 3,514,697 3,129,569

    All things considered ... really not so much. Looks like the major portions are the Prefs. They seem to have decent coverage for now. and .. they are using Pref issuances to help finance new acquisitions.

    JMHO .... of course...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Love fixed income but hate risk?

    by thewisejman Aug 19, 2015 3:49 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 20, 2015 10:12 PM Flag

    We all have been feeding at the Hi-Yield Pref trough since 2008/09. Many from that period have risen back towards Par or higher. at least - the firms that survived ... and really - most did.

    Now if adding this cycles big-Yield attractions, perhaps have been getting in Far Too Early! I know that I have. And, have been selectively averaging down at times. still quite difficult to pick bottoms now. almost all debt issues are still paying divs. when PPS of commons recover, and sector/cycle business stabilizes, then survivor firms Prefs/Debt most likely floats back toward Par.
    From the 08/09 class - some REIT/Pref issues took 3 - 5 years to recover price. However, they paid divs the whole time!

    JMHO ... of course

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Love fixed income but hate risk?

    by thewisejman Aug 19, 2015 3:49 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 20, 2015 10:05 PM Flag

    Yes, ETFs .... MAY provide a 'more stable' choice. However, most often yield is much lower than similar CEFs. By 50 - 150bp. This can be quite significant over time.

    Some here mentioned ETDs, like senior notes. Yes, for most company issues, more stable than Prefs. They are higher up the Capital Structure so have serious seniority in firm dissolutions. This also translates into higher level of continuous dividend/interest payment guarantees. Flip Side: You pay for that in lower Yields. 150 - 300+bp lower than Prefs. If higher safety and stability are desired and willing to accept lower Yield, then perhaps a good choice.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Love fixed income but hate risk?

    by thewisejman Aug 19, 2015 3:49 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 19, 2015 7:13 PM Flag

    I have held HPS and PSF for years. PSF has very good experienced management. Yet all CEFs will react to common events. Even though HPS dipped for awhile, it also came back. Divs have tended to be steady for both, even in downturns. Just as a 'target' I'd consider PSF at anything appx. $24 or below to build positions.
    Have started initial position in FPF and plan to add over time.
    Hold a few more like IGD, DHY, NCV ... tho they may not be pure Pref CEFs.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split is not good

    by mrdudley10 Aug 10, 2015 6:32 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 13, 2015 12:27 AM Flag

    I think once RSO has stabilized and has a clear growth horizon along with increased profits, yes. That has certainly seemed to be the intentions of JC and management.
    Market realities have challenged that for several years. However, remember back during the 08/09 credit meltdown, RSO maintained a very healthy dividend. Far better than its other REIT peers. Many applauded their commitment. However, that was also the a big part of their problems during economic cycle recovery.

    When?? That is the real question. I think they will proceed conservatively. Especially after the Cooperman lecture.

    JMHO, of course ...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • priviet priviet Aug 13, 2015 12:18 AM Flag

    Mary, that is understood. Not only Leon, Buffett. Many more. Barton Biggs, and most other long-time money runners. They admit it too.

    However, what I am referring to here is that Cooperman has had quite a long history with the Cohen family constellations. I think he has a pretty good sense of how they operate as well as the sectors and environments. Not saying that he has complete future knowledge. Just that he has significant experience and visibility into risk/reward potentials. And, overall, he is quite successful in the types of sandboxes that he plays.

    JMHO .. of course.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • priviet priviet Aug 12, 2015 1:11 AM Flag

    'Doesn't he know'?
    Don't you know that Leon has been an active investor in Cohen family businesses for at least a decade? Not just one. Many.
    Wouldn't you imagine that an astute and connected money manager like Leon may also be socially close to the family and have a pretty good understanding of risk/reward?

    Just curious.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    POSITIVES!

    by nschwartz_99 Aug 7, 2015 10:44 AM
    priviet priviet Aug 11, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    I think Cooperman is now taking what for him, is probably a highly distasteful and unusual step. That is - a highly public upbraiding and education for Jonathan Cohen. I suspect that much of what he has suggested or observed - both for RSO and REXI, has been delivered through more private channels for quite a long time. Notice the language that he uses in these transcripts, for example something like; "All of teh academic literature suggests that reverse splits are most often not beneficial to shareholders'. Jon is a PH.D. - so, Leon is casually but pointedly noting that.

    Leon is no newbie nor novice investor to the Cohen families constellation of companies. Not only RSO/REXI, also the ARP/ATLS entities.

    Just perhaps - Leon is suggesting that Jon focus on ARP, not just collapse RSO/REXI?
    'All these ventures' ... he refers to are not only the R.E. side. Some believe that Jons dad runs the energy side. Only part of it. Jon is also listed as CEO.

    My guess (only a guess): We will see some management 'transitions', including new CEOs, unfold within 6 months. Jon will still have significant control ala Exec Board seat. However, new CEOs will be installed in one or more of the operating entities.
    I wrote something on another thread, before, that he was spread way too thin.

    JMHO ... of course.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    David Hall

    by samtn12 Aug 10, 2015 6:07 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 11, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    Sam, your thoughtful considerations are worthwhile, even though MILL may well sink in the end.
    For all the critics and naysayers who are gloating about the SEC action, perhaps step back a little and view from a few more angles? Like, for example ....

    1) Considering the price of energy at the time, it would not be too much of a stretch to estimate the potential asset values that lie underground.

    2) The SEC has only moved when energy prices have collapsed. Or ... another way to put it is that - if energy stabilized at say .. $75/bbl upwards, the SEC probably would not be anywhere around.

    3) Finally - here's the point: The SEC continues to take major criticism, flak & anger for NOT going after corporate malfeasance in any meaningful way. Since they tend to have quite a difficult time building cases against, say, major $Billion U.S. enterprises, the cases take too long to develop and close, and the Public Relations game is often stacked against the SEC. So .... the SEC see's a potential Easy win, a small guy, MILL. They also know that MILL, even if having a credible defense, has money problems and the cost to defend one's name may be tooo much. So, they go after MILL, a calculated potential 'Win' for the SEC. The SEC can claim they are doing their job.

    Regardless of the MILL management mis-steps and dropped balls, this is just another consideration.

    just for fair acknowledgement ... I occasionally take on 'Spec Plays' outside of my usual investing/trading areas, with limited position size. Partly for education and new diversification activities. MILL had Sooooo much promise at one time! Lost my Ax?"%^% on this one. Perhaps the education will be worth the price, one day?

    JMHO....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split is not good

    by mrdudley10 Aug 10, 2015 6:32 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 11, 2015 1:07 AM Flag

    Seeds, I usually appreciate your comments and insights.
    questioning reasoning with this one?
    Wondering why insiders, not just company, are buying heavily now if they anticipate a dividend trim?

    Just curious??

    Sentiment: Hold

  • priviet priviet Aug 10, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    Perhaps I am the naive or ignorant of facts one, however ....
    this whole thread seems somewhat of a 'bad-grapes' variety. Not necessarily based in practical reality?

    just a few examples from different posts here: 1) Hedge Funds takeover? Some HFs may already have a position here, as well as in other BDCs. HF managers run HFs, not BDCs. They do not have an interest in running or becoming a BDC. While businesses may appear similar on surface, they cater to different audience, use different approaches and different metrics.
    2) PFs? Or VCs? REALLY??? Again, while may have seemingly 'similar' types of businesses, their focus, objectives and client bases really are very different.
    3) The 'Big Money out there'? BDCs are not Big Money? Hmmm ... ?? Blackstone (BX) was once identified as a BDC. VCs are Big Money?

    WOW .... just .... WOW!!

    JMHO .. of course..

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    This MILL situation is getting tight

    by verado Aug 7, 2015 3:10 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 10, 2015 3:06 AM Flag

    Visiting AINV to stir up more trouble, Veraldo?
    Yes, MILL is more than likely down & out.... expected.
    Still, the underlying assets could be substantial. If/When energy climbs above ... say .. $60 - 65/bbl, AINV will be quite OK.

    JMHO .. of course..

    Sentiment: Hold

  • priviet priviet Aug 10, 2015 3:04 AM Flag

    Visiting the AINV board now, Veraldo?
    after 1 - 2 years of constant haranguing on the MILL board?
    Is this your follow-on target?

    Just curious....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • priviet priviet Aug 6, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    A prime Ambulance chaser. kind-of the Orly Taitz of the Corpo-Lawsuits class. Sad.

    However, also an indication; these things, the fishing suits, really accelerate towards the top of economic cycles when things begin to sputter.

    could be a 'canary'??

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Two Jonathan Cohen?

    by thewisejman Aug 5, 2015 4:10 PM
    priviet priviet Aug 6, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    yes. 2.
    however - note: Jonathan Z. is CEO of RSO and ARP and ... on the board or exec at several other related companies. he is a very busy dude. way toooo busy, imo.

    JMHO

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    management distractions ....

    by priviet Aug 5, 2015 3:55 AM
    priviet priviet Aug 5, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    It is - ARP / ATLS.
    Because I hold some ARP-Prefs, I research the firm. Energy MLP.
    Cohens have been involved in energy for a long time. They have multiple entities in both energy and R.E.

    To begin discovering some of the overlapping linkages, go to 2 website:
    1) atlasenergy
    2) resourceamerica

    could be eye-opening?!?!

    thoughts...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • not that this should be any kind of excuse ... but, really just wondering ....??

    Jonathan Cohen is CEO of RSO and ARP at the least. REIT & Energy co's. also the ?co-mingled companies, Atlas Energy, REXI, and more ... etc... ?
    Yes, his father, Edward is still substantially involved. And, given their very-long-time business activities they most likely have quite long-term relationships with major investor groups like Leon Cooperman/Omega, and others. Would not surprise me if this is both social/personal as well as business connections.

    What somewhat concerns me is the CEO - Jonathan. How much attention and mindshare can he keep focused on so many firms in different sectors. Each having its own troubles and challenges?

    I guess what I am wondering is - has RSO's difficult performance been impacted by, or affected by, Jonathan's less-than 100% focus on THIS firm?
    And - in addition - Is This division of activity / firm and business focus Really in the Best Interests of us Shareholders?

    any thoughts?

    Sentiment: Hold

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