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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

priviet 16 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Aug 8, 2006
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  • Look at the shares sold and the shares retained. Still some major holdings.
    In addition, Really, at $012-015/share, how much did they Really salvage by exit?
    What I am saying is that I am not sure it has much real relevance.

    JMHO .. of course..

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Please have patience

    by jacobcanuck 14 hours ago

    Hedges drop off in 2018?? And, energy is estimated to drift toward $65/bbl by end of 2016. Quite probably, given reduced drilling, many firms out, big players walking away from projects, more mid-east turmoil, and a host of other factors, 2017 could potentially see a return to $70 -

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    as men age..

    by paintertoe May 23, 2016 9:16 AM
    priviet priviet May 27, 2016 2:50 AM Flag

    I am all for an enlarged AMBC!
    Could make me feel younger -:) ???

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Moody's downgrades ATLS bonds again.

    by jrfillion May 23, 2016 9:14 AM
    priviet priviet May 24, 2016 2:02 AM Flag

    nh - wondering?? are you simply a short or personally unsatisfied meddler or just a perpetual doomster?

    all that any aware, awake, inquisitive or knowledgeable investor needs to do is take a quick look at virtually every single M&A action in public firms for 'news releases' or otherwise. The ambulance-chasers automatically release statements 10 minutes after any announcement, regardless of the quality of firm or buy-out action.
    BUT .... Only 100% of the time........

    Now ... be a good boy and stay busy ... start a list of All of the lawyers who are about to start actions. that way, you can keep us all up-to-date on the numbers...

    FWIW ....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Moody's downgrades ATLS bonds again.

    by jrfillion May 23, 2016 9:14 AM
    priviet priviet May 23, 2016 9:25 PM Flag

    A little off topic, yet perhaps soon to be related and pertinent - REXI was acquired today by CIII partners. At a nice 50% premium. In case you don't know, REXI is a R.E Asset manager for RSO, a REIT, and other holdings. Both REXI and RSO Chairman and CEO are Ed Cohen & son Jon. It was announced that they would vacate all positions on sale completion.

    So .... why might this be related? Possibly with REXI & RSO off the Cohen's plates they may focus more energy and attention toward solving ARP's issues immediately. And it wouldn't hurt that they most likely received a very nice payday!?!?

    JMHO ... of course...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • priviet priviet May 18, 2016 2:16 AM Flag

    I am not sure that TPG has really failed US, skin.

    Considering what TICC execs were attempting to do just a few short months ago. that was certainly Not in Shareholders best interests - and now, managements perhaps necessary real material actions to put skin in the game, even if, considering their joint total net-worths, is not massive, TPG has still moved them to more closely align with shareholders.

    Probably a good thing, and would not have happened if TPG and others had not made some efforts to change the situation.

    JMHO ... of course.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Motions to dismiss Chpt 11

    by dogwood1855 May 16, 2016 9:40 PM
    priviet priviet May 18, 2016 1:14 AM Flag

    What I am finding somewhat disturbing, not to mention surprising, is the continuous comments on this board demonizing BBEPs management, when not so very long ago, when energy pricing allowed sustainable companies, and even before then, when economic conditions were dire, the management team, for many many years, received well-regarded kudos for their resourcefulness and profitable capabilities.

    What happened??? Now, as energy firms go belly-up left and right, they are crooks, or worse??!!

    Just wondering how they might actually feel about their company, their stewardship, and the investors who believed in them???

    just curious..

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Status of ARP going forward

    by bruce4653 May 17, 2016 6:51 PM
    priviet priviet May 18, 2016 12:41 AM Flag

    Cube, lots of frustration on the boards. Feels pretty discouraging.
    Look at all the other MLPs who have similar capital issues. Virtually all of the energy plays.

    ARP has not-atypically found a path forward over time. Ed Cohen has been in this game for quite a long time and is unusually creative. Yes, the Cohens do tend to 'create' some frustrating financial maneuvers from time to time. In both their Energy and REIT playgrounds. Yet, they have almost always been able to turn-around bad situations.

    I am not playing 'cheerleader', simply an observation regarding potential. All of this talk about 12-year payback unsustainable and impossible, massive $B debt, etc... Consider ... 12 years ... even 3 years is a Very Long Time. Much can happen.

    What kind of hedge or energy pricing going forward, say, 3 - 6 months and 2017 would provide maneuver room? What else might they be able to do if their revenues increased meaningfully, as well as ARPs Asset Valuations re-adjusted toward increased energy pricing in 3 - 6 months? How might this affect outcomes?

    note - I hold Prefs...

    Just curious ...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The call

    by prof.williamdyer May 17, 2016 10:08 AM
    priviet priviet May 17, 2016 3:42 PM Flag

    Cube, a question -
    Seeing this whole thread, all of the angst as well as the risk/return optimism, seems quite active discussions and observations. Not sure where the 'middle' is yet, many experienced posters on both sides. So ...

    Oil today, currently at $48++ /bbl. Futures into 2017 already over $50/bbl. NatGas @ $2.05+ Futures from last quarter 2016 into 2017 already appx. $2.75 and climbing.
    In other words, anticipation of increased hedges to stabilize cash-flows is more than imminent.

    What does ARP actually need to stabilize and ride through mid-2017 sustainably?

    all the chatter about - no guidance, no questions during conference call is no big deal to me. I have seen similar action and grousing on other energy-board-chats. given the environment and current situation, and given the not-atypical Cohen information flow, it is not unusual. everyone knows the risk circumstances.

    just curious...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • priviet priviet May 16, 2016 3:10 PM Flag

    huncher may have added a little more detail, But certainly Not dribble.
    perhaps, maybe a little 'overkill' for beginners, yet, they will still need to understand this before too long.

    not sure it is really productive to criticize enthusiasm and desire to expand understanding.
    JMHO ... of course.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    As my Daughter would say "Bankrobbed"

    by cardplayer5858 May 9, 2016 9:22 PM
    priviet priviet May 10, 2016 1:20 AM Flag

    Help me here a little. BBEP's current hedge presentation states that:
    Oil is hedges through 2016 @ $85+ for 77% of production
    Gas hedged through 2016 @ $3.98 for 75%
    2017, hedges around 50% @ $83 & $3.98

    with these kinds of hedges in place, at fairly substantial prices, why the immediate fear of BK? Even with energy around $44+ now, the revenue makeup from hedges is certainly substantial and should provide reliable liquidity into mid-2017 minimum?

    Yes, notes and payments may be coming due. What energy prices does BBEP need to satisfy lenders?

    just curious ....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Earnings Out!

    by stkfather May 3, 2016 8:19 AM
    priviet priviet May 4, 2016 1:48 AM Flag

    Crazy!? NOT!

    Look at the whole market today. Especially most in the energy sector.
    Oil/$bbl dropped a bit and the market acted as if it is headed back to $25/bbl on a fast track.

    Those are strong headwinds, even with good numbers. Give it some time. When/if energy $Prices start further climb toward $50 & above, BTE pps will gain strong traction.

    JMHO of course ...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ONLY way to unlock SHAREHOLDER value is

    by lerm14 Apr 26, 2016 2:20 PM
    priviet priviet Apr 30, 2016 12:27 AM Flag

    Painter ... You have been in runoff for years!
    Are you possibly a perpetual annuity, or just a leaky faucet??? -:)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Stones going to Cuba..

    by paintertoe Mar 1, 2016 4:34 PM
    priviet priviet Mar 29, 2016 3:25 AM Flag

    yes, a little humor.
    still .... what other group has been playing together for over 50 years!?!
    And ... stilll, get this ... the Stones, year after year, gross more $Revenues than any other band act ever.

    and ... what other CEO and COO have been in their positions for over 50 years? In a major $Billion dollar enterprise?

    and can still ... ummmm ... Shake their B oo ty ....??? -:)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    "Quash" motion show cause?

    by pegcardinal Mar 3, 2016 7:26 PM
    priviet priviet Mar 4, 2016 11:28 PM Flag

    a Short???

    just curious ...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Ambac CEO on CNBC

    by gexscallopini Feb 11, 2016 2:19 PM
    priviet priviet Mar 4, 2016 11:26 PM Flag

    perhaps research his background and experience before dissing?

    He has quite valuable experience in sub-prime recoveries, among other things. He has also done an excellent job in stabilizing AMBC given challenging conditions. The PPS has slipped, mostly due to the current PR situation which he also inherited.
    As for compensation, more than fair. He has also put his own money up and bought significantly in the open market.

    One of the few CEOs worth every penny.

    JMHO ... of course...

    Sentiment: Hold

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