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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

priviet 22 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Aug 8, 2006
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  • really funny that the down-siders claim mill short on cash. what? in the past few months they have refinanced, added new financial backers as well as cash liquidity, done several significant deals, received payments from state, added to revenue through production. yes, scott likes to do deals. as a banker, he also knows the assets available. and ... the new cfo - that many were bashing a few months ago - is proving quite adept in the funds management area, not to mention that he came out of a p/e firm and knows what is possible and what is stretching.
    so - they have a plane. they are building out an office in texas. the are sometimes dispersed around the country. they are also producing, following a plan as well as taking advantage of opportunities to add assets to the company.
    personally, i think that since scott & boys did not get approval for their comp packages, they have decided to ramp the company larger to justify increased bonuses, even if it takes a bit longer. if the assets grow thorugh that, then i think our pps values will grow as well.

    jmho, of course.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    TAXI is a steal

    by thewisejman Jul 21, 2014 12:51 PM
    priviet priviet Jul 21, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    this is one of the major exposures potentially in the long term .. and maybe sooner. exactly. they make loans on medallions. these medallions cost a lot! up to $1mm / per. now, what happens to the value of these certificates when the cities - especially along the eastern seaboard - have to relinquish parts of this taxation scheme due to the newer transport services, like uber. they are making inroads and are being fought by the taxi operators. how long? and ... do you think that uber, lyft, et al - will be forced to also purchase highly-priced certificates? not likely.

    i think a shift might be on the horizon. don't know when, just that it is happening in other parts of the country and world. this is what is known as disruption of the status quo. if taxi is built on financing medallions, then it sits near the middle of risk.
    jmho...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    TAXI is a steal

    by thewisejman Jul 21, 2014 12:51 PM
    priviet priviet Jul 21, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    While growth and numbers are solid, I wonder about long-term sustainability? Especially with respect to underlying sector focus? What effects, eventually, might Uber, Lyft and others have on transport biz? while some cities might be able to slow radical adoption and changes, certainly seems like lots of forward momentum for new transport offerings that will change the whole ride-landscape. ???

    jmho

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Seems like an over reaction

    by volfan4life2012 Jul 18, 2014 6:24 AM
    priviet priviet Jul 18, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    are projections ... promises?
    this is an exploratory energy company.
    do you know other e&p outfits that absolutely guarantee on every well they drill?

    what amazes me about so much commentary is so much expectation like this is a bank cd or something.

    its a spec play.

    jmho

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    whipsawed

    by olejos Jul 17, 2014 9:18 AM
    priviet priviet Jul 17, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    interesting observation, amigo.

    is it - people, or is it the little hft machines algos?
    if individual traders, ya think this is an old jesse livermore technique, applied modern day?

    just curious.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    A little sanity, please

    by analytical99 Jul 16, 2014 4:47 PM
    priviet priviet Jul 17, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    How do you expect a small company to grow? Especially at the revenue rate that mill has shown? I know a CEO at a public company in another sector who expects both large growth as well as profits. He keeps pounding his staff to produce this. Staff knows that the business model needs changing to address changing market issues. CEO is blind and that will ultimately hurt company severely.
    Scott and crew - on the other hand - are very aware of time-frames as well as goals. They have been using a quite valuable asset in Cook and other properties to leverage that growth. Will every well-bore hit? I think thats fantasy, no one knows for sure. nature of the game. have they done a pretty good job of productive deployments? Overall - yes. not so long ago most on this board were hailing David Hall as nearly a demi-god. now he gets slings & arrows? what has really changed? Scott has done an impressive number of deals, both financial as well as operations and product expansion in just a short few months. were they expensive? yes. are they seen as highly profitable in the future? mostly yes.

    what i am beginning to wonder about more is the nature of the shareholder base and how this base plays into the shorts hands? in other words, there may be a significant percentage of shareholders who were expecting a very large short term pps gain in order to take profits and leave. as mill now seems to be investing and developing for a longer-term play, the short-term holders want to leave. which helps the short-sellers drive pps. in truth, i have some options that will be underwater probably because of the setbacks. i have also added to my common position at advantageous times as well.
    i think it may take somewhat longer than we projected for this to play out? cms did us no favors in that regard. ana99 makes sensible observations.

    jmho and glta ...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Mgmt screws everyone again

    by emiah222 Jul 10, 2014 6:42 PM
    priviet priviet Jul 16, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    i stand by what i wrote. if emiah does not understand the bdc business model then should not be here. yes, everyone wants to 'make money'. so? perhaps a little education might help in that endeavor. not - buying into something you know nothing about and expecting it to always be profitable.
    and yes ... spo's and debt issues are a fact of life in sectors like bdc's, reit's and mlp's. thats the way they raise money to grow since they must distribute a major portion of earnings as dividends.
    so ... c'mon ... if making money is the objective, learn how to play the game....

    jmho.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Mgmt screws everyone again

    by emiah222 Jul 10, 2014 6:42 PM
    priviet priviet Jul 11, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    if you feel really screwed - then why are you here?
    may be more rewarding for you to buy a growth stock? or a large-cap traditional?
    or whatever your preference is that you feel good about and good about yourself also?

    jmho

    Sentiment: Hold

  • priviet priviet Jul 10, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    REALLY!!??

    JUST SOLD PUTS.....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The scuttlebutt

    by verado Jun 20, 2014 3:19 PM
    priviet priviet Jun 20, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    probably why the stock is up almost 3% today.

    lets hear more bad news like that verado. keep up the good work.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Just the fraud.....

    by creedster_99 Jun 20, 2014 10:04 AM
    priviet priviet Jun 20, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    Not that I agree with Panick all the time. However, I have read his posts on this and other boards as well as receiving a promo copy of his newsletter in the past. from my experience ... he is fairly up-front about his beliefs and opinions. and, his contributions to the board are sound, not hyped one way or the other.

    whether i agree with them all the time or not, i appreciate his posts. he is one of the more informed contributors here. its his political droppings i find a little 'lame'...

    jmho ....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Barbarians at the Gate!

    by don_t_panick Jun 18, 2014 6:17 PM
    priviet priviet Jun 19, 2014 12:27 AM Flag

    Really don ... what should he think about? the sunnis don't like us. the shiites don't like us. we kept saddam in power till he became unmanageable. al maliki, on the other side, is a pawn that has proven virtually useless. should we go besties with iran to qwell the insurrection? is that what you are suggesting? or maybe another hapless mideast misadventure under false pretenses?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Q1 and Q2

    by brownvinohead Jun 10, 2014 4:08 PM
    priviet priviet Jun 17, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    8.
    not much to say. just watching and waiting. optimistic.

    glta

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Driller in Cook Inlet files for bankruptcy

    by cut_under_my_eye Jun 4, 2014 12:33 PM
    priviet priviet Jun 4, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    and maybe you haven't been following this board long enough to make an observation? Panick has been around. hardly an IR flack. also posts on other board.

    hold.off.on.the.keys.until.sober.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Big blocks being dumped...

    by keltus1952 Jun 3, 2014 1:42 PM
    priviet priviet Jun 3, 2014 5:42 PM Flag

    FSC has already been beaten down.
    It could turn around from where it is currently at.

    jmho

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    I voted Against

    by sheetwise May 10, 2014 10:19 PM
    priviet priviet May 20, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    almost every bdc issues shares. either debt or equity. thats the way they grow because earnings are paid out as divs, by regulation. and, virtually every bdc requests to issue shares below nav in the proxy. this is mostly seen as an incentive for new shareholders. typically when they issue new shares, whether below nav or not, they already have investment objectives to put the funds to work. .... thats the way bdc's work.

    jmho

    Sentiment: Hold

  • priviet priviet May 19, 2014 11:02 PM Flag

    some advise investing with 'conviction' meaning going in heavy, with weight. others advise spreading some around a little to mitigate complete risk exposure.
    wondering if you have considered diversifying a little?

    just curious..

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Today's presentation

    by chessmaster6752 May 19, 2014 4:30 PM
    priviet priviet May 19, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    Thanks Chess. After all the negativity for the past few months it is quite welcome to hear progress on the front that matter - production. and, also good to note that dv gave a compelling presentation - still seems to be in the game.

    all the best...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Badami

    by samtn12 May 14, 2014 9:48 PM
    priviet priviet May 14, 2014 10:57 PM Flag

    i think, given their overall progress with e&p, that they have done quite well on the drilling and production side for a majority of their holdings. maybe not an out-of-the-park homerun, but certainly a slow, steady and cumulative inventory build. and, considering the projected supplies they have available, they continue to build valuable assets to develop.
    jmho ... of course.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Penny stock by July?

    by beach_it03 May 8, 2014 3:57 PM
    priviet priviet May 8, 2014 7:59 PM Flag

    watching the preferreds rise steadily. most who invest in debt have a better sense of company sustainability than common folks. where the prefs are sitting is a fair statement of support.

    jmho .....

    Sentiment: Hold

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