Not sure that you realize this ....
Derivatives are very often ... Hedging instruments.
Do you know what that means?
just curious ...
you guys still around? since the original common wipeout? did you re-load after the restructure, or just hang-out here for fun? much time on hands?
just curious ....
A Greek 'referendum' is mostly meaningless to the rest of the EU including the creditors. It is a manufactured sideshow by Tsipras & Co. As many here on the board have stated, and indeed, virtually all of the news outlets, it is way too late for a 'referendum'. Greece will default first. The only beneficiary of this referendum is Tsipras. He can claim deniability from all of his questionable promises due to 'The will of the people'. This might serve to get him off the hook in Greece. Maybe. However, it will do absolutely nothing to preserve any type of respect, reputation and negotiating power within the EU.
At the moment, sunday afternoon .... looks like U.S. market futures are having a more frightful reaction than E.U markets.
well ... here's the thing about the Prefs that is curious to me ....
- SB just declared a div for the common. even $0.01 is enough to require divs for the Prefs. So ... by regulation it immediately becomes defacto that divs will be paid on Prefs. And ... unlike common, Pref-divs are set. So ... typically this would assure investors and - the yield is quite attractive. Prefs should rise to the occasiom.
sure - SB common 'might' eventually have more upside. that is fine if one is more attracted to growth performance and .... accepts the increased risk. Prefs are more targeted to income, less risk placements. and ... 11%+ yield is highly outstanding if it lasts. there is a lot that can be done with constant cash flows.
I really do not think the story is so much about Greece as it is the BDI, shipping rates and ship turnover / inventory. Most 'Greek' shippers are not domiciled in Greece.
to each his own.
just IMO of course.
Sounds more like an opinion than an informed experience or analysis.
A Spanish bank? Have you looked into SAN, even a little?
By far, one of the most diversified financials globally. Far more than a 'Spanish bank'.
Greece may certainly cause some temporary volatility in the EU money sector. Though if you are opining about particular institutions, you may want to compare DB, RBS, BAC and others to SAN.
JMHO ... of course..
yes, admittedly, i am one who does not believe that a grexit would cause that much economic mayhem.
market psych mayhem - yes, probably. real economic distress? probably not. and .. i think a lot of that is already self-contained within eu.
would greece become similar to argentina, walking the pennyless desert for a decade? maybe.
so.... yeah ... u.s. market maybe short-term spiky reaction. long-term? not so much.
though certainly other factors like interest rate spike, fed moves, over-valued firms and markets, economic slowdown, and simply lack of sustainable momentum would be factors contributing to a 5 - 10% decline.
jmho ... worth what it cost -:) of course ....
question - what is the balance of keybank debt now?
they paid down $10mm. which seems significant. i remember some mention that the keybank financing had been paid off. if not, as best as i can determine, looks like maybe $18.5mm remains? if so, given the alaska rebates due, that could be paid down substantially, with funds left over. not to mention the rest of 2015 oil futures booked at $96+? and, as of now, seems like oil is channeling around $60/bbl. would not be surprised if it does drift up to between $65-70. if so, wouldn't that be sufficient to stabilize mill?
Yield on the Preferred-D is now around 11.75%! Price has dropped almost 4% today. Why?
SB just declared a dividend payable on the common. They will be required to pay dividends on the preferred issues. So ... why the fall?
Maybe this is naive ... just curious.
Well considered, gero.
there are many possibilities, including investor exhaustion with cim.
a buyout is certainly reasonable, given its history, relationships with other reit management, and what is happening in the sector currently.
seeing some experienced institutional money becoming more active in the space. and ... i would not be surprised if some consolidation starts to gain momentum. it is overdue. just look at the increase of reits, the number of new public reits since 2011. especially in the past 2 years. more firms chasing the same money, projects and opportunities makes for quite challenging profitable growth. hence.... consolidation becomes attractive.
jmho, of course ....
CT, pardon if I hot a nerve by offering what I thought might be some useful information. I certainly did not mean to offend. 'Pay Grade' comments really are becoming stale and immature, not to mention passive-aggressive in tone.
I have certainly found the considerations and investments of successful money managers useful and instructive. Even if not always right or profitable.
If you really, truly, deeply, believe that this 'Game' is 80% contrived, why would you, as a rational person, even wish to 'Play'? For what end?
jmho ... of course.
since we are all in 'talking heads - pundit' mode, i will contribute another 'projection' contrary to yours, veraldo .... i see an acceleration of discord in the middle east, including 'unanticipated disruptive eruptions'. saudi's are already spending heavily, drawing down reserves massively to counter increasing threats. and ... even so, more incursions in their neighborhood. they cannot allow this, and will commit even more military and money to stabilize political upheaval. iraq will continue to squander opportunity and stability. at some point, intersections of energy pricing and political instability all across the region will jolt prices upwards, even if for short - 4 to 6 months - to refill coffers.
more .... to stabilize employment in u.s. the gov will begin to allow certain energy products for increased export. elections are coming. in addition, certain vulnerable fracking areas in certain states will mandate drilling stops. add to that inventory drawdowns.
i think t.boone has a better mid-long prediction. $70 - 80 by mid 2016.
jmho .... of course.
just for consideration - look at this from a management resource angle. ceo is still with company. new cfo, decades of experience, is still with company. cfo definitely has discussed options and activities with all lending parties. this is certainly not a hail-mary. most likely, agreed by all for going forward. and ... most likely with further plans for capital and cash allocations. jmho - of course - i think there is method to what appears to be madness. and . both key and apollo are both in agreement. new cfo would most likely not bleed company to dissolution given his industry rep.
jmho ... of course.
CT, for whatever its worth, leon cooperman / omega increased their position in cim in the 1st quarter, since the split. he had divested a significant amount prior to that, last year. so .... what does he think that others are contrary to?
he knows the reit sector intimately. what does he expect? timeframe?
and, yes, you can find this on Omega SEC 13F for Mar31. 2015.
jmho, of course.
more than a rumor. I heard it, as did an audience, directly from a MILL exec, during a presentation a few years ago. They also had photo evidence.
Every company seeks to optimize asset valuations for borrowing and other purposes. Given growth trajectories as well as energy prices at the time, I do not think there was massive inflated value at that time.
Yes, The source is in the press release along with everything else. Veraldo.
Yes, it will be an interesting day tomorrow. and ... the day after.
Fancy Hyper-Crowing on what ... 10 - 12 - 40 posts already?
curious that MILL hired a new CFO just a few weeks ago. They certainly knew that they were in a precarious position. And ... a 20 - 30 year veteran just joins? He certainly knew what he was stepping into. And .. he still committed. That alone says a lot.
JMHO of course.
I have been considering buying a slug of C or D also. I bought some D at the lows just before last div announcement and sold when it ran up, cost-averaging down on the total position.
And to your point re: run-ups, Don, even comparing to your current faves ..... look at last time div was paid. the p-D's ran up 100% from lows within 5 days. in first 2 days, over 60%. very nice bounce.
Just perhaps ... the fact that they could hire a seasoned and experienced CFO and pay him a pretty good salary, and that someone with that many years experience and pedigree is willing to come on board may mean something.
at the very least, it certainly means that they have cash flow to pay. and .. if he was willing to come on board, probably much more.
not saying the ship will turn immediately. just inferring that there is higher potential.