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Daegis Inc. Message Board

profitassurance 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 2, 2015 4:05 PM Member since: Jan 28, 2004
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  • Reply to

    This co is not worth $42 mil.............

    by den56kk Dec 4, 2014 7:11 PM
    profitassurance profitassurance Jan 2, 2015 4:05 PM Flag

    It might not be on the books but the brand name is worth a lot because it generates millions in royalty revenue. You can't just count brick and mortar value when the biz is a franchise model.

    Travel and convention cost is not a scam. I checked into it and the spending is in line with the number of trade shows they do. The CEO is very frugal person. Over many years the operating expenses of the biz have not moved up an inch despite growing revenues.

  • Reply to

    Grocery Stores

    by williamson_barry Dec 9, 2014 2:08 PM
    profitassurance profitassurance Jan 2, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    They don't know that number because the distribution centers that report to them sell to local distribution centers that then move the product to the individual stores. Those local centers don't have to report to NROM. Therefore, they don't know the exact number. I say, follow the money. If revenue growth in the grocery segment is satisfactory then the number of stores doesn't matter. Cash flow is what counts in the end.

  • Reply to

    The volume pickup the last 2 days suggests

    by pa1702 Nov 14, 2014 2:40 PM
    profitassurance profitassurance Nov 14, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    It's good to see some volume come in. Stock is more liquid than meets the eye. The 1.60 buyer sat on the bid with what looked like a large iceberg order and soaked up every share that was thrown at him. My sense is that this buyer is not done.

  • Reply to

    Q3 Results - my take

    by profitassurance Nov 11, 2014 10:52 PM
    profitassurance profitassurance Nov 13, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    I think you are right on that. Because of this, the valuation doesn't reflect major improvements in 2015 cash flows. Herein lies the opportunity. Just the absence of certain outflows that have stopped as of end of Q4 is good for a 15% jump in cash flow YoY in 2015. The operation likely will add another 15-20% to that.

  • profitassurance by profitassurance Nov 11, 2014 10:52 PM Flag

    Overall very good results and growth across the board. While the more stringent selection process has slowed freestanding T&B store sign ups, choosing higher quality operators is already bearing fruit by the quality of new openings. On the call the CEO said that the unit that opened in Q3 is the highest volume unit out of all. That's quite impressive given that the location didn't even have time to built a following yet. The location that opened in October is also doing very well.

    Btw, I checked reviews on facebook on 9 of their stores and found about 200 5-Star reviews between all of them. That's quite nice to see. The average most stores got was 4.9 out of 5.

    Key to this investment seems to be shifting to the Grocery Segment as this is where the largest growth and momentum is coming from. Very impressive progress there. My conservative scenario brings me to $4M EBT for 2015. Given the margins and growth I think a 14 P/E on that wouldn't be unlikely. The company has seen much higher P/Es in the past. What does everybody else think regarding valuation and progress?

  • Reply to

    Another look at CYRN

    by profitassurance Oct 10, 2014 5:46 PM
    profitassurance profitassurance Nov 11, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    I agree. If a fact leaks and can cut the share price 50% one would think it is material enough to make a filing necessary. I still believe nothing leaked and we simply have a supply / demand imbalance which will sort itself out.

  • Reply to

    Another look at CYRN

    by profitassurance Oct 10, 2014 5:46 PM
    profitassurance profitassurance Nov 10, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    Feeling terrible about it, of course. This stock has been like catching a falling knife for a long time. It is incredibly oversold but who would blame anybody for waiting after the quarter to see if a big shoe drops. Chart certainly looks that way. I think it is too early to evaluate the success of the new product CWS, especially since the ATP addition isn't even out yet. The ATP product will be key to break into enterprise level sales. Based on expected launch, significant revenue growth from this is probably Q4/2015 with very slow ramp on CWS beginning now. This is not news. Stock trades as if the base business has disappeared. If quarterly results come and there is no bad news, what is the stock going to do?

  • Reply to

    IMO ...Very shady accounting going on

    by den56kk Oct 17, 2014 6:17 PM
    profitassurance profitassurance Nov 9, 2014 9:13 PM Flag

    One chain of 150 grocery stores has just signed an agreement in which they are contractually obligated to open and continuously run all stores. All stores are expected to open in November. It was discussed on the call.

  • Reply to

    only one here

    by michaelmcmx Nov 3, 2014 8:29 AM
    profitassurance profitassurance Nov 3, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    why do you think cyrn is a good buy here?

0.6899-0.0053(-0.76%)Jan 29 11:46 AMEST

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