It should be falling back to $1.01 again. The East Coast had another snow fall and another cold snap with high wind chill (DC=2'' of snow, Philly=2'', NYC= 1", Boston=8"). I guess this will give management another excuse when they announce their losses next quarterly report... But let's be honest, they were going to report losses anyway.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
You expect them to lose multiple dollars per share over the next two quarters, or do you just like to use hyperbole and big exaggerations? Sure, earnings may be flat and they may have to pay part of the dividend out of their cash pile until next Christmas shopping season, but when you claim that a profitable company that has hundreds of millions of dollars of cash-on-hand and no debt is going to be in a worse financial position than JCP, CWTR, ARO, PSUN, JOEZ, BODY, and WTSL you just lose credibility.
Their agreement gives them high interest payments off the top, plus puts them in position for preferred shares that give them a dividend for the long term, and puts them in front of the common stock holders in case of a bankruptcy... No, their deal was fine, they knew they had Aero right where they wanted them and squeezed them for the deal that was most advantageous for them.
Don't call him a "d***" for being bearish on the stock... He's exactly right. The numbers were so bad that it ruins any good news from the recent past. Now we're back to just wondering if this company will survive.
After CBOU (Caribou Coffee) and PEET (Peet's Coffee) were offered buyouts, and SBUX (Starbucks) posted a great quarter last night, not to mention Green Mountain Coffee's (GMCR) move higher, Java Holdings (JVA), which is very levered to SBUX and GMCR is experiencing a short squeeze higher. This is starting to pop!
Yes, it is! Sorry, Gnome. I know you've been waiting on this stock to turn around for a few years now. It looks like you'll have to wait another year or more, or at least a few more quarters, to get back to even.
Yep, I knew it! It missed expectations again and will re-test its 52-week low this morning. It should crash right through it.
GME trades in large swings; it regularly trends up to $22 or $23 and trends back down to $17 or $18. It is looking like it has--just like it has many times before--completed its upswing to its ol' peak of 20-something dollars, and started a new swing back to its same ol' trough of sub-18-bucks. There is no reason to buy for at least a quarter or two... Or wait until the next generation XBox console comes out, and the next generation of Playstation is at least sooner-to-come... Until one starts to buy GME.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
This is still an $8.00 stock. 65 cents in earnings times a P/E ratio of 12 is just about $8.00. So, yeah, this stock should be $4.00 cheaper!
Four-and-a-half years later, it's still down 20%. All this time, this company has not been able to perminently lift the stockprice, and all the while, there hasn't even been a dividend. That's why everyone should only buy into great companies, not put their hopes in turnaround plays.
No, this stock is not cheap! Aeropostale is trading at 17x trailing earnings. Meanwhile, Macy's is trading at 11.5x trailing earnings, Men's Wearhouse is trading at only 12x trailing earnings, Kohl's is trading at just 9.5x trailing earnings, True Religion Jeans is trading at 13x trailing earnings (and Management is looking for a buyer to take them private at the same time), Joseph A. Bank is trading at 12.5x trailing earnings, Dillard's is trading at 12.5x trailing earnings, and Casual Male Retail Group is trading at just 6x trailing earnings. Also, American Eagle Outfitters is trading at 21x earnings, but it raised estimates and pays a nice dividend.
Oh, did I mention that Aeropostale cut earnings forcasts for the coming quarter?... So there's no reason to pay more for the higher multiple on ARO.
You're exactly right, Blackhole. Centerview will collect a nice check telling them what they already know. Either dilute further or choose bankruptcy. There best bet would be to issue a secondary offering of 50 million shares at between $1.10-$1.25. That would give them between $55 and $62.5 mm to work with. But of course, that would hurt the common stockholders even more.... However, so would bankruptcy.
This last quarterly report has shown that $5.00 EPS per year is not the outlier, but rather, the norm. CSTR has earned $4.91 over the last 12 months, and this stock is only trading at 9 times those earnings. If this company can earn $6.00 in 2014, and Wall Street were to trade this company at 14 times those earnings, this would be an $84.00 stock.
That's a double from here, almost a 100% return, with only moderately better earnings necessary to get there.
I bought more down here, too. A double is definitely possible. This last quarterly report has shown that $5.00 in EPS is the norm, not the outlier, and the stock is currently trading at only 9 times that amount. If this company can earn $6.00 per share in 2014, and Wall Street was to give it a 14 multiple, this would be a $84.00 stock.
So, yes, a double is possible!
This stock has a lot of short interest, so as the price continues to trend higher many of the shorts will have to exit. This will put more upward pressure on the stock. I believe this stock could reach the 60-dollar range by the end of the year.
You stated ".....instead of actual intellectual conversation." If this board had any real 'intellectual conversation whatsoever, maybe your 'Old Gang' would have sold and left long ago before the 'U Fail', I mean the 'U Draw' flopped and made all your money disappear. Instead you're all here saying "I can't leave, I've got so much money tied up in this thing; I'll wait for it to get back to even", or "I've already lost so much, there's no point in selling now". Yeah, so much for "intellectual conversation" from the "Old Gang".
Also, you left it out from one of my previous posts, but I knew that BBY was going to continue to collapse and would miss on its next earnings report, and sure enough, just like clockwork, the stock crashed again on last nights pre-announcement.
Alexander, I tip my hat to you; you've done your homework. Yes, my Terex call seems to have fallen flat. Terex has beaten expectations in 4 of the last 6 quarters, but everytime the stock hits $25, it falls back down. It is a very cyclical stock and everytime we get 'scary' news regarding Greece, Spain, Portugal, or 'the China slowdown' the stock loses momentum. As for PSUN, I still think it is going bankrupt. PSUN had earned--and saved--a lot of money from 1995-2000, and again from 2003-2008. However, in the last 3 1/2 years they have squandered that entire pile of cash away and they have yet to right the ship. As for TheStreet, their management has been speaking up the company and its stock for years about how excited they are for the future. Their conference calls are always exactly the same: "(fill in the blank) will help us bring in more revenue per customer, (fill in the blank) will save us on our overhead, (fill in the blank) will bring in new customers. These measures will help us become profitable for the longterm". But it never happens. Maybe one day TheStreet will be profitable, but not for a while anyway.
Betting on a buyout is just too dangerous. Think about it critically: What private-equity firm is willing to buy a company that was valued at $12.8 Billion, and has watched its value fall to $6 Billion, and is now guiding profit down again, after they missed on earnings 5 of the last 6 quarters.
If you were in charge of a PE firm, would you want to pay about $ 7 Billion or $8 Billion (or about $20-$22 per share), which is the lowest they could pay while giving the current shareholders any worthwhile value, when the company's value is crashing from $6 Billion to $5 Billion to below $5 Billion? That means, it will be difficult for Schulz to find a PE firm that is willing to put that kind of money down, which would be necessary to get a deal done.