The common does NOT get cancelled until the POR become EFFECTIVE.
But, the basic of the DRAFT in INK on paper, or in an electronic filing, will tell you BONEHEADS that you are getting ZERO!!!!
You boneheads can continue to trade the worthless paper, just like in ALL BKs until they are cancelled.
So, until that time, the game of WHO is the GREATER FOOL ... will continue.
It really has a nice ring to it.... would make for interesting reality show....
People love to watch MORONS making utter and complete FOOLS of themselves... in PUBLIC!!!!!
It it were not so sad for all those MORONS that will lose money they canNOT afford, it would be HILARIOUS!
You have ZERO idea what you are talking about, which is precisely what the common will be worth, and is why the 10K states clearly: We are UNLIKELY to propose any distribution to the stock.
Kodak's NON US operations rely upon the British sub for all key banking functions. That sub currently is showing a $1.5 BILLION UN funded pension liability.
Before any substantial cash can repatriated to the US, the UK pension liability must be settled.
Currently Kodak must pay off $200 million of the NEW money loan.
Then they must SATISFY the $375 million of 2nd liens.
Then they must satisfy appx. $1.8 billion of UN secured.
BEFORE you gamblers get a red cent.
Before you doofuses get anything, the UN secured claims must be made whole!!!!
Some of the smartest Distressed investors are not paying more than 13 for UN secured claims, until the UK situation is settled.
Before the shareholders get a penny the UN secured claims would have to INCREASE SEVEN FOLD.....
Yet you retail know NOTHINGS think you know more than the TOP INVESTORS who have access to WAY, WAY more info than you?????
I believe the UN secured are undervalued, but I do not FOOL my self into believing that they will get anything close to 100 cents on the dollar.
Unless UN secured get 100... You FOOLS will get ZERO!!!!
swift, You are but the latest KOOL AID circle jerk MB member has wondered into the light to attack.
Does it make you feel better?
Do you have ANY actual info to share about Kodak, or is your life so pathetic that you think attacking others will provide help or insight?
I post info, and my analysis, HOPING that there might be an honest person who is willing to discuss the facts.
I KNOW that posts will NOT change the fundamentals.
I KNOW that ONLY the fundamentals will determine the long term value of securities.
I have NO Interest in the short term trading of a bunch of GREATER FOOLS.
It appears that if there are any intelligent life forms reading this MB, none of them wish to share their insights.....
I was hoping that a few people would have something of substance to share, besides the nonsense about cram downs of $2 billion of UN secured, which can ONLY happen if there is NOT enough assets to cover the secured.
Despite the warnings from Kodak about the MOR is NOT be relied upon for a full understanding of Kodak, another GREATER FOOL tries to suggest that $2 billion of UN secured claims will just magically get satisfied.
With appx. 46,000 shareholders, it is clear that thousands are just going to hold till the stock is cancelled.
Then when the NEW shares starts trading they will try to sell, but they will be holding OLD Kodak shares that are worthless, and NOT the NEW Kodak shares that are trading.
Glass for brains, Everyone makes mistakes.. Decent people admit to their mistakes. I only post what I believe to be the truth. I do NOT make up BS to pump or bash. I do NOT try to manipulate others with lies.
If YOU believe to have never made any mistakes in life, then you are delusional, or a liar.
I do appreciate intelligent opposition to my views.
You have to come this MB from KOOL AID land to try to PUMP and influence others... which is born out by your delusional belief that "rooting" will change the reality of Kodak's situation.
Maybe a bunch of screaming loons could affect a player in an athletic event, but such buffoonery will NOT change the FACTS related to Kodak.
It is sad that you spend the time to attack an alias on a yahoo MB, and to try to blame them for your mistakes.
Yet, you have ZERO ability to understand the FACTS, and ZERO ability to offer an contrary opinion of the facts.
Seeking to influence others is what you people do on the circle jerk MB.
And G forbid if anyone tries to point out that drinking the KOOL AID, and then spooning each other will only lead to a Jones town type disaster, you ban them from posting.
Kodak shares recently traded above most of the average prices (except the few weeks before the patent disaster) since they filed ch.11.
So, YOU and the rest of the KOOL AID crew have NO excuse for NOT getting out!!!
Blaming me for your investment mistakes, is only something to be expected of a TRUE LOSER.
Glass for brains, Kodak is NOT a sporting event. Rooting is meaningless. And I am NOT rooting.
You and I and others were wrong about the DI patent sale.
Just because a bunch of GREATER FOOLS are buying Kodak stock does NOT change reality of this situation.
You people from the KOOL AID MB are pathetic.
Just because the shares went up does NOT mean anything.
The shares went up dramatically before the DI patent auction... Obviously Google/Samsung and Apple/MSFT had already struck a deal to collude, and the buyers of the shares were wrong.
The same thing is happening again, except that there is NO more potential for a multi billion $$ sale...
Which is why the UN secured bonds are NOT moving up.
You can "ROOT" around with all the others playing WHO IS the GREATER FOOL, but it will NOT change reality.
Nobody forced you, or any of your moronic friends to invest in Kodak.
So, trying to blame a guy on a yahoo MB for your mistakes is simply PATHETIC!!!
Except the reality like a man, and not like teenage girl.
There is NO cramdown, because half of the secured have committed to exit financing. The other half, which equals $375 million are MORE than covered by the remaining assets AFTER accounting for the Jr. DIP.
There is NO way to go around the UN secured, UNLESS the secured are NOT made whole, and they choose to give some of their NEW stock to the current shareholders.
Since the total of the Jr DIP plus the 2nd liens is amount that is slightly greater than the global cash ALONE, there is NO way that 2nd liens will NOT be completely covered.
You are the one who is GAMBLING!!!!
Because BEFORE the common gets a penny, the UN secured must be made whole.
WHY do you think NEW money backstop lender BLACKSTONE's GSO Capital bought $138 million of the UN secured OPEB?
Who knows more, YOU or BLACKSTONE??
Why do you think that the $12 billion Hedge fund Blue Mountain(search in relation to JP Morgan) bought $268 million of the OPEB UN secured general claim?
Why did NEW money backstop lender Contrarian funds buy $130 million of the OPEB UN secured claim?
The OPEB and UN secured bonds are Pari Pasu, and are part of the general UN secured class.
YOU are the gambler who is pumping to GREATER FOOLS, so you can sell for a profit....
SHAME ON YOU!!!
I think you FAIL to understand that the MOR is NOT a balance sheet for Kodak, because it fails to include NON US liabilities.
That is why the 10K states: UNLIKELY to propose a distribution to the stock.
If there is equity, then the UN secured claims will be made WHOLE....
So, you are suggesting that the UN secured claims that are trading at 12 to 13 are worth 100?
Before the current shareholders get a penny, UN secured MUST be made WHOLE!!!
If the Queen had balls, she would be King.
If you are correct, to which the ALL the sophisticated credit hedge funds DISAGREE, then the bonds FIRST have to be made worth 100!!!!
So, you think you are correct, and the ENTIRE world is wrong?????
While US GAAP pension liabilities change in 2013 to a mandatory calculation based upon a DISCOUNT rate using the last 25 years, rather than the last 2 years, will erase the US pension liability, I have NOT seen a UK version announced yet.
If the UK decided to use the US law, the UK liability would shrink to appx. the PRE financial crisis level of $650 million.
Other EU countries have already issued new guidelines/laws on the calculation of pensions, that are similar to the US, but generally reduce the liability by a lesser percentage.
I believe that UK authorities and Kodak will settle on an amount that appx. $ 900 million of upfront cash.
Since a significant portion of the assets being sold are outside of the US, the cash received plus current NON US cash can be directly applied to the settlement of the UK liability.
While other UN secured creditors will not like this arrangement, they probably cannot assert control over NON US assets, that are NOT part of the BK.
The NEW money financing allows for a settlement with UK pension, as long as global cash stays above $800 million.
Current cash of $1.1 billion + $600 M division sales + $300 M from global real estate sales= $ 2 billion with most held outside of the US.
Jr. DIP must be paid down by $200 million before exit, leaving $1.8 billion global cash.
Which means that Kodak can afford to use $900 million to settle the UK pension liability, and still have $900 million of global cash left over to satisfy the Jr DIP agreement.
Which brings us back to the VALUATION of the businesses that are slated to exit as a going concern.
Even a full break up analysis does NOT appear to produce a large enough valuation to satisfy all of the UN secured claims.
Maybe in a few years, IF Kodak forecasts for the growth businesses become reality...
But, nobody outside of the KOOL AID crowd and Perez believes the Kodak forecast!
Fred, Is that as intelligent as you can be?
I post info, with analysis.
What do you post?
If you care to have an ADULT conversation about the FACTS, that would be commendable.
I guess the KOOL AID MB has decided to start pumping elsewhere?
FREE speech is NOT tolerated on KOOL AID MB.
You can post your childish barbs here, as much as you wish...
But , YOUR OPINIONS WILL NOT CHANGE the FACTS.
YOU and I and many others were wrong about the DI patents.
I accept my mistake.... YOU and the other losers, do NOT.
Pumping a dead cat, will not bring it back to life.
EVEN DEAD CATS BOUNCE!!!
Rochester, Is your life as pathetic as it appears? You made money CONGRATULATIONS! Other lost.
How many times must you make the same announcement? Do you make more money by posting?
NO... Unless some fool is paying you, because you have NOTHING new to add for the last 2 years.
What do you gain from your constant posts? SERIOUSLY...
I mainly post info, with MY analysis.
I may be proved incorrect, and I welcome thoughtful analysis from others, as to why.
You post nothing but childish attacks, and boasts about your PAST success.
Is life in Rochester land as horrible as it seems?
All the people like GLASS for brains, who spend their time posting attacks on others are true losers.
People who come these MBs to vent and write HAHAHA, as if they were still in grammar school, are the true losers.
Breakup valuation= $800 million CG + $600 million CI= $1.4 billion plus $900M cash = $2.3 B
less Jr DIP and 2nd liens of appx. $1B = $1.3 B for Unsecured
$1.3B/ $1.8B= 72% recovery.
But more importantly, in the going concern valuation, 2nd liens get appx. 50% of the NEW equity.
In a break up valuation, 2nd liens would get a much smaller slice of the NEW stock.
Breakup value of $2.3B - $650M of secured leaves $1.65 B of remaining assets.
$375 2nd liens would then get ONLY 23% of NEW shares.
Leaving 67% of NEW shares for UN secured.
IF, the CI portion of Kodak, under NEW management were to grow as forecasted, then UN secured would receive 2/3 of the benefits, rather than only half of the benefits.
This is BATTLE that is raging between UN secured versus Kodak management/2nd liens.
While some of the OPEB purchasers are cross over buyers from the 2nd liens, appx. half are from NON holders of the 2nd liens.
The majority of the UNsecured bonds are held by NON 2nd liens.
Kodak's POR will most likely NOT be accepted , unless the Unsecured bonds and NON 2nd liens OPEB holders are on board.
A compromise valuation would push the UN secured initial RECOVERY up to appx. 50 cents on the dollar.
Management will get a larger bonus for the higher percentage recovery, and still get options on NEW stock.
Management has much more future upside from getting a boat load of options on a greatly undervalued NEW stock, rather than a slightly better bonus, on a more fairly valued NEW stock, and that is why management is siding with the 2nd liens.
A better POR for the UN secured, would include a sale of the CG business, so the cash proceeds could be used to pay off 2nd liens, leaving all the NEW shares in the growing CI business in the hands of the UN secured.
In almost every public company ch.11 where the shareholders are far out of the money, management
works with top creditors to greatly undervalue the enterprise, so they can get cheap options, while the top creditors receiving stock get deeply discounted shares.
This is why the Unsecured committee is now at war with Kodak.
Instead of Kodak supporting a full valuation of the assets, which would mean few shares to the 2nd liens, management has cut a deal with the top 2nd lien holders.
Because the CI division is still USING cash to grow, it reduces the valuation put on the cash generating commercial graphics business, which reduces the "going concern" valuation.
The commercial graphics is generating appx. $200 million of EBITDA on $1.7 billion revs, and generates FREE cash flow of over $100 million. This business is stable, and has a worldwide market share of appx. 35 to 40%. So, this business on its own is worth at least 4 X EBITDA, or alternatively 8 X Free cash = $800 million.
The CI division is appx. $600 million of revs and growing. Packaging is a clear growth market worldwide, yet it is only appx. $100 million business at Kodak, and consuming cash to grow.
The other part of the CI is digital systems to create photos, and commercial digital printing( $500 million revs). Additionally, Kodak is developing NON media printing businesses called function printing( printed
circuits, 3D, etc.) Kodak has top technology, but as usual is burning cash.
The CI businesses are greatly coveted by everyone in the printing industry, including heavy weights XRX, HPC, Canon, Samsung, etc,
But, the going concern valuation places a NEGATIVE value on these businesses.
( I am putting zero value on the theatrical film for this analysis, even though it will do a few hundred million of revs and generate $50 million of EBITDA.)
If a break up value was placed on Kodak, the CI would be worth at least 1 times revs or $600 million.
Goal #2 : Get options on the new stock, in a company that has been cleansed of legacy liabilities.
How: settle with UK pension using NON US cash and proceeds from sales of divisions and real estate.
While still complying with covenants for exit financing.
MAIN covenant: at least $800 million in global cash.
After Kodak sells all assets that are currently for sale, and settles UK pension, they will be left with appx. $500 million in NON US cash, and appx. $400 million in US cash, commercial graphics, CI, and theatrical film
EBITDA of remaining operations estimated at $170 million for 2013. 4 X EBITDA= appx. $700 million
Plus cash = appx. $1. 6 billion of assets
Exit financing is appx. $650 million.
2nd liens: $375 million
Secured and 2nd liens must be 100% covered before assets are available to UN secured.
So, $1.6B - $1B leaves appx. $ 600 million of assets(NEW stock value) for UN secured.
$635 M OPEB + $680 M bonds + $160M trade claims+ $40 M ATLC + $70 M Fuji + $100 M environmental + $100M other(including exec pension= appx. $1.8 B total UN secured
$600 M (new stock value) is appx. 33% recovery for general UNsecured.
Management gets their bonus, while valuing the NEW stock at 1/3 of breakup value.
Management will then profit from options on greatly undervalued NEW stock.
And THAT is how the CH.11 GAME is PLAYED to benefit the management.
Many of the same DOUCHE bags that drove Kodak into BK, will benefit when Creditors get cheap NEW stock, while shareholders get ZERO.
Even the full break up value of Kodak would NOT leave any value for current shareholders!!!!
Therefore, management will produce just enough recovery to earn their bonuses, but still produce a greatly undervalued NEW stock, so their NEW options have significant value.
You people are blowing smoke up each others poopers...
Unsecured bonds are being paid in full:
NT.GN NORTEL NETWORKS LTD 9.49 07/15/2011 No - - - 104.718 -
NT.GQ NORTEL NETWORKS CORP NEW 1.75 04/15/2012 Yes - - - 98.250 -
NT.GM NORTEL NETWORKS LTD 10.13 07/15/2013 Yes - - - 113.968 -
NT.GR NORTEL NETWORKS CORP NEW 2.13 04/15/2014 Yes - - - 98.625 -
NT.GL NORTEL NETWORKS LTD 10.75 07/15/2016 Yes - - - 114.562 -
Do some DD for a change.
Massive NOL... ZERO for shareholders.
Mphage, I believe one of the biggest misunderstandings about the human immune system is the substantially different responses to a non pathogenic antigens, and those antigens that are expressed on a cell's surface.
Injecting NON pathogenic antigens repeatedly to temper the immune response to reduce allergic reactions, is substantially different than training and boosting a response to a tissue mismatch.
Booster vaccines shots are given with long intervals( many months and usually years) in between.
Allergy reduction therapy to NON pathogenic antigens requires frequent shots over a substantial period of time.
Kid, Its NOT just these old pros, its also the back stop NEW money lenders, who bought the OPEB claim, as I posted previously.
Kid, I admitted I had made a mistake concerning the DI patents... Can you?
You attack everyone, but NEVER admit to your own mistakes.
You told everyone to sell their shares at 18 cents, before they rocketed over 50 cents, before the WSJ reported on the low bidding.
I joined you here in telling people that the stock would ultimately go to ZERO, which is TRUE.
One day you say the bonds are only worth 13 cents, the next you are saying how smart people are for buying them recently.
Do you have a split personality disorder?
It is well documented that you screamed at everyone last year to sell their shares at 18 cents, and buy bonds at 14.
You NEVER admit to numerous mistakes, while you chastise everyone.
There was NO way to predict that UNINFORMED boneheads from all over the world, would bid up a worthless Kodak stock to over 40 cents.
You have GOOD basic understanding of BK. But, like myself, your timing SUCKS!
At least I can admit to errors, that EVERY investor constantly makes.
ANYONE who invests, will make numerous timing errors.
All those people who claim to be trading gurus, are full of #$%$, or they are trading on ILLEGAL INFO.
People who understood to short an individual stock are NOT geniuses. If they can continually know what to buy and sell, and when to do it.... They would NOT be wasting their time posting here.
1)This "reverse cramdown" does NOT apply when the Secured lenders are fully covered.
2) In the case of Kodak, as I spent considerable effort documenting the FACT that secured lenders now own substantial amounts of the general UN secured claims. The general UN secured must be treated equally,, even if UN secured supplier and customers get a slightly better deal.
3)LOW information investors are playing the GREATER FOOL GAME.... PERIOD!!!
4) Company ALREADY said: UNLIKELY to propose ANY distribution to the stock!!!!
5) Management will get options on the NEW shares.
6) CURRENT shareholders will get ZERO.
RATIONAL people CHANGE their opinions based upon the FACTS at hand.
ZEALOTS and other LOSERS refuse to accept REALITY even AFTER the FACTS have become public info.
LOSERS blame others for their mistakes.
LOSERS refuse to accept responsibility for their own actions.
NOBODY is perfect, and EVERYONE makes mistakes.
ONLY losers attack repeatedly even after the other person has ADMITTED to making a mistake....
ALL those who NEVER make mistakes PLEASE EXPOSE YOUR TRUE NAME to the WORLD!!!
LOSERS always want to BLAME someone else. I NEVER said I had INSIDE info.
I posted the reasons I was bullish on Kodak, and they mostly revolved around the DI patents, and the elimination of most of the POST RETIREMENT liabilities thru the new US pension law, and the FACT that Kodak said the OPEB were at their discretion.
I ADMITTED to being wrong about the DI patents, and Kodak CHOSE to settle the OPEB for WAY more than the retirees were willing to accept in cash.
I am STILL posting the best evidence I can see based upon the ACTUAL info.
Kodak is NOT getting decent prices for the divisions they are selling.
Many people did buy as Kodak dropped to 14 cents, and they have had NOW 2 opportunities to SELL for nice profits since then.
EXCEPT for the HOT money buyers who waited for Kodak shares to rise from under 20 cents PRE DI patent sale, Almost everyone that bought shares over the last year is NOW in the GREEN!!!
I started WARNING them that IF they hang on TOO LONG the shares will become worthless.
I am SAYING the EXACT same thing..
YOU smart #$%$ do NOT know how high Kodak shares will go before PLUMMETING to ZERO...
Just like the housing BUBBLE a few years ago, or the Internet Bubble over a decade ago, ONLY those people who UNDERSTOOD that they were PLAYING a GREATER FOOL GAME, they became the FOOLS.