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MIND C.T.I., Ltd. Message Board

propitiousaugury 50 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 7:12 PM Member since: Mar 20, 2013
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  • Reply to

    leaving this board

    by shanti.ashwin Apr 17, 2014 3:43 PM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Apr 17, 2014 7:12 PM Flag

    Shanti, are you on CornerOfBerkshreAndFairfax board? Lots of value guys on there, no spam and a huge member base. Google "CornerOfBerkshreAndFairfax ebix" and you'll find the thread dedicated to EBIX.

  • Reply to

    Options volatility

    by srmedava Apr 17, 2014 11:54 AM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Apr 17, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    Well that's good news for those who sold options during the past months. I myself sold $11 puts and pocketed a nice premium. Those puts are on track to expire worthless!

  • Reply to

    Bretton Fund commentary on AMNF

    by morokko65 Mar 6, 2014 1:43 PM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Apr 14, 2014 5:45 PM Flag

    Haha wow, that's crazy! I actually looked up "Falcon Fund Armanino" on Google and found the bylaws of the corporation.

    So I'm trying to understand what makes AMNF tick from a business perspective. What is it about their pestos that cause the restaurants and consumers to keep re-ordering it again and again? Is it the freshness of ingredients and the flavor - the edge they have in their business?

    I'm reading their annual report and trying to glean insights about their business. Why is a competitor not able to do the same thing as AMNF does?

  • Reply to

    Bretton Fund commentary on AMNF

    by morokko65 Mar 6, 2014 1:43 PM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Apr 14, 2014 5:40 PM Flag

    Sorry I wasn't being snarky - just very incredulous. I mean event today (in the age of hyper-active news dissemination) AMNF flies below the radar of most individual investors...I can't imagine how you'd have found Armanino 26 years ago.

  • Reply to

    Bretton Fund commentary on AMNF

    by morokko65 Mar 6, 2014 1:43 PM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Apr 11, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    Wow you've been holding AMNF for past 25 YEARS?! Your cost basis must be less than a nickel!

  • Reply to

    EBIX "growth" is a joke

    by bluedreamdreamer2 Apr 6, 2014 11:35 PM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Apr 7, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    @Bluedream: You make valid points and they all do merit attention. The short answer to your questions would be to look at any metrics through a longer time-frame and then try to find a reason as to why the trend will/won't continue.

    Look at EBIX's business - the exchange and BPO services make up the bulk of the revenue. The organic growth here would be more-or-less correlated to the underlying growth in transactions and business of the insurance companies that use EBIX's services. This isn't a scorching hot industry experiencing jaw-dropping growth. And because of the switching costs of its potential customers (which serve as a barrier to entry in the enterprise software space), most of EBIX growth, by definition, has to be acquired.

    Look at how EBIX has performed from the day Raina stepped into the office. If you had invested 1000 dollars when Raina stepped on the day Raina took the helm at EBIX, your shares would be worth over 25000 dollars today, I have no doubt Raina understands this business very well and I find no reason to believe that the story has changed. The customers haven't fled, the business is stable and the management was distracted by lawsuits, investigations, botched merger and bad publicity. So, sure there have been distractions - but don't all businesses have distractions at some point? The weak ones implode and the strong ones pull through.

    And you won't see a lot of holders here getting worked up over a flat YOY revenue/cash flow. Remember, once upon a time, almost everyone was convinced this was a fraud and it is from this narrative that EBIX is slowly emerging. If after a year or two, there's been no signs of growth then I'll be questioning why.

  • Reply to

    Revised Valuation

    by investor.gator Apr 3, 2014 10:40 AM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Apr 3, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    Investor.gator - Thanks for the insight. Your comment seems the only sensible comment I've seen so far among a flood of hysterical comments published mostly by speculators and idiots.

    At $18/share, they have an enterprise value of $481M and with an $75M we have an EV/EBITDA 6.4 which seems kinda cheap (when gov biz is eliminated) compared to its nearest comp like RBA (got a better comp?).

    I'm looking at the latest 10Q and it seems like the stock compensation expense is awfully high. For the "Three Months Ended December 31" they had a net income of $7.1M and a stock compensation expense of $3.7M. Also, for year 2013, they had a stock compensation expense of $13M on net income of $41M which seems strangely excessive. Any thoughts on this?

  • Reply to

    What wrong with Yahoo message board?

    by lollipimps Mar 24, 2014 11:50 PM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 26, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    hahahaha

  • propitiousaugury@ymail.com by propitiousaugury Mar 25, 2014 10:51 PM Flag

    Not reading too much into it. What matters to me is what Raina does. If he sells, I will. If he keeps, I will - simple as that.

    Like Peter Lynch says, insiders sell shares for a variety of reasons...and who knows what the reason is. I'm wondering why there hasn't been a SEC filing over this. Doesn't an insider transaction trigger a reporting requirement?

    Search for "Ebix Director Pavan Bhalla Sells 40,000 Shares" on Google to find more.

  • Reply to

    EBIX Short Interest for March 14

    by jeff.hawthorne Mar 25, 2014 7:51 PM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 25, 2014 10:48 PM Flag

    Thanks Jeff. I'm sure it's a surprise not just to you, but almost all of us around here.

    I wonder what the short thesis is, at this point and at these (or lower) prices.

    The only catalyst visible on the radar is the outcome of the DOJ investigation. There has to be a HUGE penalty in store for EBIX, to have its intrinsic value impaired from the sub-$20/share level.

  • Reply to

    Awilco- Contemplating Bond Issue

    by kadenstorm Mar 24, 2014 12:13 PM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 24, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    The rumor of them buying rigs has been circulated multiple times and the company has unequivocally denied it.

    Looking at the past, it seems that Awiclo is managed by one of the smartest players in the offshore industry. They know what to know, when to buy and how much they ought to pay when they buy. The last thing I expect this management to do is go on an empire-building spree at the cost of shareholder returns. This company is managed by shareholders, for shareholders. They would NOT be buying a rig unless it met their IRR hurdles because the parent company is the biggest shareholder and has the biggest to lose if things go awry.

  • propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 21, 2014 10:04 PM Flag

    You might be right stocksock. I'm not an options player and my knowledge is rudimentary at best, when it comes to options. In my post above, I think I meant "sell" when I said "exercise."

    My bad...

  • propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 21, 2014 10:02 PM Flag

    Cheers srmedava, glad you found IB. It is definitely a *HUGE* step up from ETrade.

    IB feels more fair and consistent and of course cheaper! The employees/management own a big chunk of it so it is less likely to implode compared to E*Trade. And need I mention that you pay fraction of pennies on the dollar for FX transactions and painlessly buy international stocks? They are less likely to play games while routing your order, etc - compared to IB.

    Only thing worth noting is that the interface feels a bit complicated and it's easy to get confused. But with a little bit of practice, you're all set.

  • propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 21, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    One thing I noticed was that if you have call options with strikes close to market price, you would've been smart to exercise those options a day or two BEFORE the actual expiration date.

    In this case, you will notice that $17March2014 calls expired worthless today but if you'd have exercised those calls a day or two before, they'd be worth something.

    Why? Well for one, you had all of the in-the-money calls (even as far #$%$ calls) that were going to be exercised today. So that would've naturally created more supply of shares due to everyone waiting until the last minute to exercise their options.

    Am I missing something?

  • Reply to

    Observations

    by bkanwar2 Mar 20, 2014 3:55 PM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 21, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    Hi bkanwar2 (I think you post on EBIX message board too right?)

    Here are my observations regarding OUTR:

    1. It doesn't matter if the stock is for big boys or isn't.
    2. It also doesn't matter if management sandbags guidance.
    3. What matters is whether management returns cash to shareholders instead of squandering it on "new ventures." They said they will return 75-100% of FCF to shareholders.
    4. It doesn't even matter if a short squeeze happens. The shorts are persistent and know that this stock is very volatile.
    5. You can make a lot of money even if you aren't one of the big boys. Just buy during the panic led sell-offs (which seem to happen biannually).
    6. At this price, the stock seems very cheap. Once you adjust for the new sharecount, the EV/EBITDA is less than 5 and free cash flow yield on market cap is around 20%

    So conclusion here is that the market doesn't know/care about the big boys and will send profits to anyone who cares to buy this stock on the cheap.

  • Reply to

    March 20 Dividend Hit Anyone's Account Yet?

    by roboklerk Mar 20, 2014 9:51 AM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 21, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Received my dividend at Merrill. Received $1.0676/share. Looks like they siphoned off about 3%.

    Is there any remedy? What can we do at this point?

  • Reply to

    March 20 Dividend Hit Anyone's Account Yet?

    by roboklerk Mar 20, 2014 9:51 AM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 21, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Thanks franskle. Last quarter's dividend hit right on the dividend payment date. Which either means the company send the payment 1-day in advance or brokers chose to hold on to them for a day.

  • propitiousaugury@ymail.com by propitiousaugury Mar 20, 2014 11:50 PM Flag

    All:

    60,000 options (that can control 6 million shares) across various strikes are poised to expire worthless tomorrow. Remember the time when options expiration date coincided with a bear raid?

    Timing issue aside, capitalizing on fear has turned out well for those option sellers!

    PA

  • Reply to

    AWLCF

    by roberts1944 Mar 18, 2014 10:15 AM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 20, 2014 11:08 PM Flag

    Management isn't very promotional. They don't really care to offer their stock to investors outside of where they reside and do business in. So they won't come looking for investors, but investors have to find them.

  • Reply to

    March 20 Dividend Hit Anyone's Account Yet?

    by roboklerk Mar 20, 2014 9:51 AM
    propitiousaugury@ymail.com propitiousaugury Mar 20, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    Nothing yet.

MNDO
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