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propitiousaugury 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 8:09 PM Member since: Mar 20, 2013
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  • Reply to

    $50 Oil Forecast by Summer

    by roboklerk Oct 10, 2014 10:03 AM propitiousaugury Oct 11, 2014 2:10 AM Flag

    Well during the black-swan of 2008-2009, during the worst bear market in recent memory oil went to $35.

    We're 5 years past that and the cost per marginal barrel has certainly increased. If you search Google for "The Middle East Has A Huge Advantage In The Global Oil Market" you will see a business insider article that shows a graphic titled "cost of production."

    $70 is understandable but at $40...half of the world's suppliers are operating in the red. That isn't sustainable.

  • Reply to

    $50 Oil Forecast by Summer

    by roboklerk Oct 10, 2014 10:03 AM propitiousaugury Oct 10, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    Really? where is this forecast coming from? This is waaaay below the break-even prices for US & Canadian Shale...a lot of production would have to be cut if oil does hit $50 and stay there for a meaningful period...

  • propitiousaugury Dec 10, 2014 5:48 PM Flag

    Sorry for double post - thought the first one didn't go through...

    Anyway, the amount of the suit is relatively small (~$200k)...but just wondering what people think of it?

  • by propitiousaugury Dec 10, 2014 5:45 PM Flag

    See documents here -!Q9Y1SBZQ!dALQCHBQw--JCOuzNDr5ZuXKt4lk3_rabJHAPI51WWI


  • by propitiousaugury Dec 23, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    Just trying to have an idea of the worst case scenario with Awilco. We know around $5-$6 is guaranteed with the current contracts in place. Assuming they get no new contracts AND they decide to scrap the rigs, what amount per rig would they get? I know it'd be stupid to scrap the rigs after a SPS and getting new BOPs installed, but still - what would the scrap value be? $50 million per rig?

    A recent bloomberg article mentioned that Floating rigs left idle in a harbor can cost as much as $12,000 a day to sit cold stacked. Assuming $20k for WilHunter, that'd be around $7 million per year.

  • Reply to

    annual meeting-2014

    by bombaywala46 Dec 20, 2014 8:51 AM propitiousaugury Dec 23, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    Hey Jedhir,

    Appreciate your thoughts & contribution to the EBIX message board. I have learned a lot from your earlier posts about the company, and about developing a thought-process favorable for long-term holding.

    I know it's off-topic but I was wondering if you find any other companies/shares that are more attractive than EBIX.


  • Reply to

    Received diviv yet?

    by nancyfischer448 Dec 19, 2014 9:29 AM propitiousaugury Dec 23, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    Ya received the divvy. Gotta say TD is the worst here. Slowest and takes the most money out of the dividend. Fidelity and Merrill are better.

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