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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

prudent.investor 1603 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 10, 2015 6:25 PM Member since: Apr 3, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Not bad actually

    by prudent.investor Feb 10, 2015 5:37 PM
    prudent.investor prudent.investor Feb 10, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    No stock should be trading below book value at all. Especially the book value of this stock was mostly tangible assets. If this company simply liquidate everything, the investors will get two to three times the money back. I believe the extreme undervalue situation was created by the cloud of LTC situation. Once that is behind us, this stock should be able to climb back up to a proper level near or around book value at least.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Blackrock has bought a ton of this stock in the past quarter and now the new filing today showed Vanguard is also scooping up this stock trying to compete.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor by prudent.investor Feb 10, 2015 5:57 PM Flag

    The LTC write off was a lot smaller than many have feared. For a company with so many assets, it was actually not a big deal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Not bad actually

    by prudent.investor Feb 10, 2015 5:37 PM
    prudent.investor prudent.investor Feb 10, 2015 5:45 PM Flag

    This report should be the last super ugly report. The stock should recover from this point on to recoup its stock value back to its book value. The stock has been oversold in the past few months to a point that does not really reflect how much assets they still have.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor by prudent.investor Feb 10, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    The bulk of the loss was the $482 million of U.S. Life Insurance, but that included $478 million charges related to the completion of LTC review. Take that out. It is almost break even. Given the stock is already trading at 1/3 to 1/2 of the book value, this stock actually has potential to double in price in the next few quarters when the future reports will definitely be better without the LTC charge.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 28, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    This is just the computer trading mistakenly treats the dividend deduction from the stock price as technical problem and triggered some stop loss selling. If you do not take this opportunity to buy and cover your short, you will regret, because the next move is the shorts will have to really pay the money to longs. That is where the big short squeeze and margin calls on shorts will come in.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 27, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    Squeeze on. :-) Very impressive strength for this stock. Totally digested the big run up yesterday. This digestion is done in even shorter time than the last one and in the face of a down market. This stock has huge strength to go a lot higher. I think the upward momentum of this stock is strengthening.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 26, 2015 7:32 PM Flag

    LOL. If this short squeeze doubles or triples the stock price, do you think shorts will still have anything left to revenge? LOL. Shorts will be broke! Short will be lucky to have enough money to buy and cover this stock. You need to understand even if this stock price triples, its PE is still only around 40. PE 40 is not very far fetch for a company that reported 59% earnings growth rate last quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 26, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    Told you guys after the stock digests the huge run, it will continue to run a lot higher. Squeeze on! This stock can easily double or triple. Shorts are really silly here. There are many money losing companies like OVAS, SHLD, WFT, etc. They are better short targets than this highly profitable company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Don't underestimate the power of short squeeze. Research Porsche Short Squeeze and understand how a 13% short position squeeze caused the stock to go up almost 5 folds in two days. 48% of the float of this stock is shorted. That is huge. Shorts that are stupid enough to still be on the short side of this extremely profitable company better ponder the possibility of what would happen if the big holder of this stock use the money from special dividend to buy this stock. If that is the plan of the big holder, I would say this stock can easily double or triple in a very short period of time. It is silly to still be on the short side of this stock. This is like a volcano that can erupt any time when shorts all scramble to buy and cover. It is better to buy back this stock as soon as possible and short sell money losing companies like OVAS, SHLD, CZR, #$%$, etc.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Chicken margins

    by kpolhj Jan 21, 2015 9:05 AM
    prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 22, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    LOL. What a screwed up short argument! There is no incentive for a big holder to kill its own holding. If it kills this, it will be the biggest loser. LOL. But there is plenty incentive for the big holder to kill stupid shorts like you. LOL. And that is exactly what is happening now. Shorts will be burned and squeezed big time with the smart special dividend move. LOL. And the big holder (and all longs) win with higher stock price plus special dividends. LOL. Don't need to do another deal. Just need to squeeze money out of stupid shorts. LOL. Like I said, it is stupid to short this very profitable company. Companies like OVAS, SHLD, CZR, WFT, etc. are losing money every quarter, they are much better short sell targets.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 21, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    The stock is digesting the huge run very well. After the digestion, it will continue to run a lot higher. Shorts that are wrong in shorting this very profitable company should take this opportunity to buy and cover. There is not too many days left for shorts to buy and cover. Money losing companies like OVAS, SHLD, CZR, WFT, etc. are better short sell targets.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 20, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    LOL. You are wasting your time analyzing wrong stock for short. When a company is profitable it is nature for the stock to go up. When a company is losing money, it is also nature for the stock to go down. It is silly to short the stock when the company is fast growing. It is like trying to stop a train. You will be run over.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 20, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    What are you talking about? This company profits increased 59% year-over-year. That is huge growth for a very cheap stock that is only trading at PE 13. That is even below market PE 17. It is very silly to keep thinking about the recession time that customers cut back on food consumption when we are now entering super cheap gasoline era that will put a lot of free money in the consumer pockets for food consumption. It is silly to short the stock when the company is growing profits super fast. Companies like OVAS, CZR, SHLD, WFT, etc. are losing money every quarter. They are much better short sell alternatives.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 20, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    Well, squeeze on. I think the short squeeze is only at the very beginning. Even a market down day cannot get this stock down at all. As time gets closer to the pay day, short buying stampede can get a lot stronger than what you are seeing now. This is only a preview. There are many money losing bankruptcy candidate companies like OVAS, CZR, SHLD, WFT, etc. on the market. They are a lot better short targets than this highly profitable company. It is silly to short sell a profitable company like this.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    my very rough math

    by kpolhj Jan 15, 2015 10:18 PM
    prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 16, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    I think you forgot the low gasoline prices put more money in the pockets of consumers that allow them to buy more foods and eat out more. That is the foundation of the change of fortune of this company, and the good time is getting even better every week. It is silly to be on the short side of this very profitable company. This sector is one of the best sectors that will benefit from low oil prices. It is better to short bankruptcy candidates like CZR, SHLD, WFT and OVAS. They are all money losing companies.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    my very rough math

    by kpolhj Jan 15, 2015 10:18 PM
    prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 16, 2015 2:09 AM Flag

    You are missing one simple scenario. The market average PE is 17. Simply getting this stock to trade at market PE would mean at least a 50% up from here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 16, 2015 2:06 AM Flag

    Don't underestimate the power of short squeeze. Research Porsche Short Squeeze and understand how a 13% short position squeeze caused the stock to went up almost 5 folds in two days. As recent as a week ago, a 20% short position squeeze caused ARNA to go up 76% in one day. This stock with 48% of the float shorted certainly has the potential for a gigantic short squeeze as shorts start to get margin calls in the next few days.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 16, 2015 1:39 AM Flag

    Thanks. You are correct.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Jan 15, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    Not as easy as you think. Think of it this way. With 48% of the stock shorted, the shorts have to come up with $720 million dollars of cash to pay the dividends to longs. That is not small change money. Even rich hedge funds can be forced to buy and cover. I believe one of the most spectacular short squeeze rally is under way for this stock all the way till the dividend day.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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