Weekly charts of SPY are not oversold by any stretch of the imagination.
Long term bullish trend still active, but in consolidation awaiting a breakout.
Yes, I know the economic fundamentals don't support it, but there it is.
Short term trend is a defined downtrend, which makes it tradable to the downside. Based on the daily chart.
On the weekly chart, there is no defined downtrend yet.
My recommendation is not to trade short, but only to look for long side entries after defined downtrends end.
It has been said that technical analysis of price levels worked better before computers were trading the market, and they reflected actual human psychology in a free market. The fact that markets are global and electronic adds a huge variable of foreign politics which adds chaos to simpler analysis.
At least you looked at a chart rather than regurgitate more ideology, so that's good.
My answer of course is in how one reaches the conclusion we're in a "defined downtrend". How fast and accurately can you do that.
I prefer to use daily charts, and without getting into a long discussion about it, it is a TA read of trend, but it uses trendlines rather than indicator calculations.
I would say that there is no way I would sit through the crash in 2008 and still be within an uptrend as I think of it. In fact, I did not sit long through the 2008 crash.
What most of us struggle with is not getting trapped long in downtrends, but in being able to get long for uptrends. That's the battleground I'm really speaking to. My observation is that THE DEFAULT IS LONG unless we're in a defined downtrend.
Czarina, you're making just another ideology speech. The only people making money on ideology are the ones catching red hot stocks like Netflix, Google, Facebook at just the right time without getting burned.
The market was in a defined downtrend from late 1929 until 1932. It would have been incorrect to buy during a defined downtrend. But it rose into 1937, and nice money was made, and it was still technically the Great Depression.
You can be bearish about our socio-economic system, about unemployment, social entitlement funding problems (which are monumental), climate, energy, global trade, partisan politics, our overpriced and underdelivering public education systems, wealth concentration, justice for sale, immigration, water shortages, our health care crisis, inflation in food and commodities, and immoral consumer marketing, and all that's fine. But it doesn't change the way the stock market rises and falls.
Stay long in market or sector averages unless we're in a defined downtrend. Impending downtrends are fictions of the mind until they actually occur.
What you're saying here is just the point I'm making. You're stuck in ideology and it doesn't pay the bills most of the time.
Looking through a century of stock market history, we find many reasons why markets generally rise and fall and they do change. Yes we are in a long term credit bubble, and it may in fact be ending. But my point is that if it is ending, we will enter a defined downtrend, and in such a case, you're not long and not hurt by it.
Markets are very much about forecasting the future, but you will make more money just assuming those forecasts will be unreasonably optimistic as they always are, and that governments will act in their own political self interest to sustain the wealthy and the parts of the economy they control. They will periodically lose the confidence of the people, and then get it back in a couple of quarters, or a couple of years, or whatever, but it comes back or the nation fails.
I'm talking about charts of weeks and months, not charts of minutes and hours.
For the majority of our lifetimes, stock markets have risen most of the time, and fallen infrequently and for shorter periods of time. A simple rule that works pretty well is to always be long, except during periods of a defined downtrend. Simple trend lines on a chart work just fine.
It works better for market or sector averages, because they don't have the earnings risks, or business conditions risks of individual stocks that can change price abruptly.
Ignore news, economic reports, market pundits, valuations, and thinking too much.
Marc is hardly a clown. An acquaintence of mine who knew both Alan Greenspan and Marc Faber in the early 1970s when they all worked at White Weld, said even then Marc was a very skeptical personality. But Marc has gone on to become wealthy, with a lot of it coming from Asia investments. His writings on economic history are a lot deeper and more circumspect than some short term market call like you might have found Joe Granville or Elaine Garzarelli making in their time.
A child of five already knows the wide gulf between life as he imagines it in his mind, and that he finds in his everyday experience. We were made to think this way, and to suffer for our ideals. It is very natural for most people to comprehend the idea of life after death.
Why some people narrow their beliefs to what they can see and what they imagine others really understand surprises me. I'm glad I have never been that way. I may question why there is so much suffering in the world, and much of it undeserved, and the only answer that makes any sense to my whole being, is transcendental reality.
Clinging to this reality is like going to court expecting justice. You just don't want to put much faith in it.
and set it where the age discrimination in America becomes completely insurmountable if you lose your job.
I thought it was great, and I don't think they endangered others. We have a ridiculous predisposition to criminalizing victimless behavior in this country. That's why we're finally coming around after decades of pointless stupidity in law enforcement to legalizing marijuana.
I wonder how many are still dreaming of getting their carbon credit on, and living large like Al Gore ?
as an internet portal. They were ahead of the curve and were impressing everyone with usefulness and creativity ?
But then Google took the News and Search business away from them, mostly, and Facebook took the community. The Federal Reserve took the stock market away from American small investors and nobody cares anymore because its so rigged, so the Message Boards died.
All that's left is currying favor with the NSA like street informants, doing lab experiments on how far advertising techniques can progress until ordinary readers actually scream out loud in despair, and see if they can go a whole year without a single financial fact being correct about a stock.
Troll, you haven't seen much of the world, apparently. So much surprises you.
czarina, I hope for your sake darling that you're entertaining us with tongue-in-cheek humor here, but I fear sadly that you aren't.
What started when Reagan gained power was an exponential rise in government debt and consumer credit. That has continued for 30+ years. Roughly the Baby Boomer generation.
They seem pretty determined to manipulate things until they collapse.