I'm a bit surprised by the momentum today. I thought we'd have to wait until Q2 to get rolling - I don't see a downside as this year unfolds with growth of existing customers and new applications continue. China, Japan, Foxconn, lighting and more. I was prepared for a dip in pps and was going to add to my position - us longs have had a rough road for an extended period of time. Maybe there is no longer a way to deny the facts: no debt, strong cash position, many growth drivers and all with a reasonable valuation given these measurements. I may still add more shares but it is harder to justify with OLED becoming a large % of my holdings.
Congrats to all longs - we truly are just getting warmed up!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If we meet or beat estimate I bet OLED stay status quo on FY forecast. If we have a miss I bet we'll guide slightly higher for rest of year, IMHO. It sure seems $200M base guidance will be closer to 15% upside this year based on progress with S6/Edge and LG TVs alone.
I could also see a scenario where Q1 disappoints due to timing of LG and would be surprised if Sid raised estimates for the rest of the year. Q2 and especially Q3 should prove to be REAL strong given S6/Edge success and LG Royalties. I think $200M was a conservative estimate, but appropriate given the uncertainty of end product adoption. The beauty, to me, is I only see upside in the future. OLED leadership learned their lesson with forecasting and I think they have the "over deliver" mindset. I went back and looked at their Q4 earnings announcement and the only forecast for 2015 was yearly, so Q1 is a wild card. I'm ready to buy on a dip.
Good to be prepared for this but everyone's circumstances are different. When I was riding NFLX on its way up I got greedy and sold covered calls to generate additional income and further leverage my shares. Unfortantely, my share got called away when the stock blew through my call price. My suggestion would be to set stop-losses that increase as the stock goes up to protect the downside but everyone is different. I plan on holding for multiple years without a stop loss since manipulation is still possible and there will be volatility in the future - the shorts are not done fighting yet in my opinion.
I was an early investor in NFLX and got out after it's first stock split 10+ years ago (very hard to jump back in at higher price and in hindsight I should've). I'm not going to make the same mistake with OLED. Similarities between NFLX and OLED: no debt, high short interest, high growth for foreseeable future, cutting edge technology. As fusionary points out, PE for NFLX is 3X OLED.
NFLX will likely split 5 or 6 to 1. I know it doesn't change the value of the company at all but it's a great sign when the stock is in triple digits. I've done the math for OLED and I'm holding.
You are correct - seat of the pants, wishful conjecture. I even called it cheerleading and said there was no concrete basis for it. It was in response to a question about what are other longs doing with their shares and I envision "my math" to unfold in this way was due to: LG TVs building this year and accelerating greatly in 2016, Apple Watch setting the groundwork for additional OLED business (especially after remarks during Goldman call regarding Foxconn), Japan and China on the cusp of joining OLED fray in a big way, OLED growth across industries like automobiles, scratching the surface on the biggest OLED application - lighting. Just to name a few. Full disclosure: I plan to hold my current position and possibly add to it if things play in this way. I'd like others to do the same but you and others need to do your own "math". Good luck!!
I'm holding my 3100 shares, 2100 with $13 cost basis and another 1K at $29. As I stated in March, my math (not via NPV or cash flow analysis, just my own math :)) is projecting $100 within a year, 2 for 1 split, run-up to $120 in second year, 3 for 1 split, run up to $100+ in year three with a buyout at $225. I believe that give me over 18,000 shares at $225 a piece. Anyone like that math?? I'm done cheerleading for the month of April - tune in next month!
Look for Price Per Share to run up to $100 and split 2 for 1 (within two years). Then run up to $90 and split 3 for 1 (additional year). Run up to $50 and get bought out at $88 (additional year).
6 x $88 = $528 split adjusted. Is that right???? All in four years? Save this post :)
That would make my 3.1K shares worth or $1.5M
This is why I continue to hold and will buy more on dips
This will serve as my cheerleading for the month of March from me! Good luck to all longs
Sentiment: Strong Buy
My guess is 52 million revs and .39 eps. Guidance is the key - they have been burned in the past with misses so they will be very conservative with projections and likely blow them away. If conservative numbers are up year over year this baby is gonna fly, if flat then we'll have to wait until quarterly beats to see pps rocket.