Good to be prepared for this but everyone's circumstances are different. When I was riding NFLX on its way up I got greedy and sold covered calls to generate additional income and further leverage my shares. Unfortantely, my share got called away when the stock blew through my call price. My suggestion would be to set stop-losses that increase as the stock goes up to protect the downside but everyone is different. I plan on holding for multiple years without a stop loss since manipulation is still possible and there will be volatility in the future - the shorts are not done fighting yet in my opinion.
I was an early investor in NFLX and got out after it's first stock split 10+ years ago (very hard to jump back in at higher price and in hindsight I should've). I'm not going to make the same mistake with OLED. Similarities between NFLX and OLED: no debt, high short interest, high growth for foreseeable future, cutting edge technology. As fusionary points out, PE for NFLX is 3X OLED.
NFLX will likely split 5 or 6 to 1. I know it doesn't change the value of the company at all but it's a great sign when the stock is in triple digits. I've done the math for OLED and I'm holding.
You are correct - seat of the pants, wishful conjecture. I even called it cheerleading and said there was no concrete basis for it. It was in response to a question about what are other longs doing with their shares and I envision "my math" to unfold in this way was due to: LG TVs building this year and accelerating greatly in 2016, Apple Watch setting the groundwork for additional OLED business (especially after remarks during Goldman call regarding Foxconn), Japan and China on the cusp of joining OLED fray in a big way, OLED growth across industries like automobiles, scratching the surface on the biggest OLED application - lighting. Just to name a few. Full disclosure: I plan to hold my current position and possibly add to it if things play in this way. I'd like others to do the same but you and others need to do your own "math". Good luck!!
I'm holding my 3100 shares, 2100 with $13 cost basis and another 1K at $29. As I stated in March, my math (not via NPV or cash flow analysis, just my own math :)) is projecting $100 within a year, 2 for 1 split, run-up to $120 in second year, 3 for 1 split, run up to $100+ in year three with a buyout at $225. I believe that give me over 18,000 shares at $225 a piece. Anyone like that math?? I'm done cheerleading for the month of April - tune in next month!
Look for Price Per Share to run up to $100 and split 2 for 1 (within two years). Then run up to $90 and split 3 for 1 (additional year). Run up to $50 and get bought out at $88 (additional year).
6 x $88 = $528 split adjusted. Is that right???? All in four years? Save this post :)
That would make my 3.1K shares worth or $1.5M
This is why I continue to hold and will buy more on dips
This will serve as my cheerleading for the month of March from me! Good luck to all longs
Sentiment: Strong Buy
My guess is 52 million revs and .39 eps. Guidance is the key - they have been burned in the past with misses so they will be very conservative with projections and likely blow them away. If conservative numbers are up year over year this baby is gonna fly, if flat then we'll have to wait until quarterly beats to see pps rocket.
The real eye opener for me on the GS call was Sid's reference to Foxconn. When the moderator told him he'd never heard Sid mention Foxconn by name in all his years covering OLED, Sid backtracked to Innulux. Whole different feel and confidence vs. past calls in my opinion. Having said that, I understand your apprehension based on history. I am glad I picked up more shares back at $29 and wish I would've grabbed even more.
Yes, the ride has not been easy with OLED and we could likely see some bumps prior to Q3 2015 because revenue streams need time to catch up to the higher expectations.
Just remember why you've been holding for so long - it is all unfolding in front of us now!
Taken from conference call - this means China, Japan!!
Makes sense, thanks for your response. Future guidance has been difficult to forecast - they're usually on target over a full year but it's tough to gauge each quarter. Under promise and over deliver is always best from my perspective. Works for Apple too
Anyone know why OLED releases results so far after quarter end? Do you think it's just a lack of Finance resources? Just seems awfully late to me.