How in the world can you be so ignorant? Of course coal is the major place that mkt share moves back & forth, so, of course, coal was the core of my question. Well, DUH! Coal accounts for almost 2/3 of the question. Trucks count to, but I hesitate to bring that up b/c I know the parrots like you will just scoff that anyone would decide to ship by truck instead of rail. If you don't know anything, just #$%$, instead of proactively proving how ignorant you are.
I'm sure you go thru life being sloppy & wrong, but you should learn to not do so when investing. You greatly overstate the "monopoly" power of railroads in the US. You're just parroting something you heard a CEO say. Did his lips move? There are 2 major competitors east of the MS RIver / IL&IN border & another 2 west of those. For a significant # of city-pairs both east of that boundary, there are 2 choices for rail freight. Even if they're not on the same tracks, they'll both get it there for roughly the same price at roughly the same time. The same is true for a significant # of city-pairs both west of that boundary. There are even 3 options for a couple of pairs in the mid-west.
So, get a clue. They're usually not MONOPOLIES. They're usually DUOPOLIES.
What an ignorant question. Carloads will depend on when/where UNP decides it is better to compete than to lose mkt share, to both BNI & to trucks.
UNP is losing mkt sh in common geography. It is hard to believe BNI's customers are just doing so much better than UNP's are. Obviously, BNI has stolen some customers from UNP. Can anyone cite any reports as to
I sold multi-month calls on UNP 2x when it was near $120, but still, $120 is starting to seem like long ago & far away & not likely to return anytime soon given these anemic volumes.
It'll probably make another run over $150.
so this was the week they told you dullards they're not going to be able to sell much land in Houston for the entire year. And you missed it.
Dang you're dull
so as they transition to operating more bldgs, the Y/Y comparisons of "adjusted" profit become more & more WORTHLESS all the time
Brilliant way to fool the dullards here
dulldagger, HHC still a few % below where I shorted it. Dang, you're dull.
Q1 was basically exactly as I predicted. Selling land in TX? Move along. Nothing to see there.
Oahu & acquisitions were the only real growth. Oahu will save 2015 but Oahu is the last thing on the books at way below mkt value. After that, you've got a mediocre REIT that doesn't have the advantages of a REIT.
Not 1 of you seems sharp enough to get that: a mediocre REIT that doesn't have the advantages of a REIT.
sold it early April.
A yr ago, GLD / ABX = 6.5x.
During tax loss-selling, Dec2014 when I bought ABX, GLD / ABX = 11x & higher. ABX had underperformed by a ton in 8 mos
early April2014, I sold ABX with GLD / ABX = 9.3x. ABX had outperformed by about 15% in 3 mos
GLD / ABX now = 8.8x & seems like ABX wants to outperform GLD here.
As you can see, I don't know a lot of ABX specifics. What is #1 issue for ABX other than price of Gold? Is that issue continuing to improve? Is it currency, part of which goes thru GLD but part of which could depend on specific locales?
I want to spend some time on ABX specifics, so a guidepost would help
That is horseshit. There is no reason to believe there are not 500 other people who can move the needle just as much & some that can move it more. CEOs make a ton of money regardless of results & the ones who do a lousy job at one firm almost always get paid a huge amount of money to give it another try at another firm.
It is a club based on back-scratching. The "move the needle" argument looks at only a single aspect of the economic argument / decision.
Yes, that is right. Which part of this is hard for you to understand? I looked at TPRE a month ago & decided that even though it was cheap, that management was doing nothing to convince investors that TPRE was a good place to have their money. So, I passed. In the last month, I'll bet TPRE has become even cheaper relative to BV. I looked at it again & I have the same reaction: it should be a good buy but mgmt is useless. In fact, the market values mgmt at less than nothing.
The whole thing is hilarious because Loeb is guilty of all of the exact things he always accuses poor mgmt teams to be doing. All of it.
WHich part of this is hard for you to get? Probably all of it. You seem quite obtuse.
The tide will turn for TPRE when Loeb goes activist ON HIMSELF.
Loeb is a joke. He trades under book now. That means he is worse than useless.
Yeah, you're probably right but I can't day-trade. It makes me as BIPOLAR as everyone else is. I'm not joining that crowd. As for buying dips, I bought KBH in February @ $13 after it bottomed. After. Not during the plunge. KHB fell for 7 or 8 days when it plunged. I wouldn't step into any of these on the first day or 2 of serious selling. There are too many nutjobs out there who buy high & sell low.
same for PHM
unit growth wasn't great but ASPs were so margins were great & they were growing earnings strongly.
Investors said "I want to see strong demand. I want to see unit growth. I'll be excited when you start to get more demand from entry-level buyers."
Now, unit growth is 30% & that is partly due to a lot more entry-level buyers. As should be expected that is helping (but not the only factor) to drive margins down, which makes earnings grow slowly. So, investors now hate weaker margins & slower EPS growth.
I completely expected great unit growth & weak margin & much weaker earnings growth. Which part of the current situation isn't predictable? I don't get it. I would like to be short at yearly highs but I'm not short b/c of the great unit growth. I'm not long b/c of the much weaker earnings growth (@ yrly highs).
The only way to make $$ in these is to buy low - sell high & NEVER go along with the bipolar crowd. NEVER. That I get. But can anyone explain the reactions this year & last year? All I can guess is @ $29, the mkt expected BOTH strong unit orders AND great margins. WHO IS DUMB ENOUGH TO EXPECT THAT?
ps: it isn't low yet.