You're in major denial. DAL up a whopping .13. AAL is outperforming DAL since you made your recent call. You got so used to bashing AAL that you couldn't buy the better stock.
$42.80 on Friday. Until something changes we continue to see rallies selling off the next day or soon thereafter. Remember the article awhile back stating AAL had bottomed and we should all buy the stock? I think the stock was around $44 and it looked like we were about to take off. We all know what happened.
A friend who manages money for big clients added that although Iran has faced sanctions for overly exporting oil, considerable oil has gone out the back door and is on storage tankers ready to flood the market. True or not, it looks like oil is going lower and at some point this should be great news for AAL. Because it hasn't been so far, I continue selling covered calls on trading shares for around 3-4% per month. Hopefully at some point those shares get called away (Aug $42 calls this month), as I own more stock in the $46 range. Of course, there are many trapped in losing positions who will be selling to get out of the trap as the stock labors to move higher.
I have the same problem accepting this change. If your CFO is leaving, find a good replacement to transition smoothly. Why the rush to leave? If fired not good. If fleeing not good. The Street hates uncertainty, so tough to rally here as buyers step away and awaitmore info to clarify this.
Agree with you bears. I have been told before that I could not short in a tax sheltered account. I also doubt anyone here is shorting over $80,000 worth of stock. Not to mention how foolish that would be on a stock that has already taken a big hit and is now showing signs of life on record earnings. Just as someone with deep pockets has managed to hold AAL down, they can as easily reverse directions and send it significantly higher.
Unfortunately, that logic (which I shared) has not worked out as hoped. Had we bought puts on almost any oil related stock we would have made a bundle. But oil has already had a massive drop without helping AAL's stock price. Maybe if we have a few more articles like the one in Barron's touting the profitability of AAL, then we might see lower oil translate into higher stock prices, but it certainly hasn't worked so far.
The calls pulled back to $1.55 and less than an hour later are $2. Nice way to make a huge percentage gain, although risky. I sold the Jul $43 calls when the stock was higher and just bought them back for next to nothing. Plan to sell calls again if we can get into $42 range.
If AAL moves up a buck in the next couple days, one could make a great percentage return. However, after giving up our rally, I would not bet the farm on any decent rally this week.
I now realize the fix was in at earnings. If AAL significantly started expanding capacity, the stock would take a hit due to higher future expenses. If they were cautious about growing and just made lots of $$$, then the narrative is that's only temporary. At least for the present Stox was right. Long term I hope he is wrong.
Any significant pullback seems likely to be met with buying, as we are already inexpensive. If you bought in this range or lower, consider selling the Aug $42 calls for $1.60 or more. If you don't get called away, repeat the same the next month and the following month for an even greater premium.
I think you're right and keep my core position for better days. In the meantime, I am making money on my trading shares.
Looking back on great moves by other stocks for comparison is irrelevant unless you know how to repeat these gains. Tell us your picks to do what AMZN has done this year. With less shares out there and continued low oil prices, earnings may well be even better next quarter. In the meantime, I will probably sell my trading shares and hang onto my core position. Sadly, good chance we will see lower stock prices in the near future.
Also expecting some buyers to come in after lunch and take us back up near our highs for the day.
the chains are being whipped around taking out all nearby shorts. Once Kraken's legs are loose, he will be running over all shorts within miles. Nice to be on the right side of things. My GPRO and CYBR also doing very well lately. I'm taking some off the table there. My best to fellow longs. Hopefully we can move into the high $40's tomorrow.
Hopefully we can move back into $43-$44 range before earnings.
Not guiding higher is a killer, and it is overdone. Buyers walk away and without them the stock sinks lower and lower. I think some shorts have taken advantage of this weakness and exaggerated the plunge. The potential good news about lackluster guidance is that if the quarter and guidance is good, we could have a nice move higher.