Not one person on this board believes you were short $630,000 worth of stock. To acquire that kind of money, you have to achieve some level of success (usually). Successful people don't go around calling total strangers idiots on message boards.
Beware of the word "should". By should we mean that by our logic event x will happen. Somehow it doesn't always pan out. But I'm with you if the market stabilizes tomorrow. Just be glad this isn't the LInked In board.
Be patient and we should move higher. Expect some volatility ahead in the market.
Someone was buying it all day long. It is very feasible that it could get bought, but to me that's not a reason to buy, as it could take a long time or never happen. But if Cisco or another big player wants the fast growth of FEYE, they are going to have to pay for it. And remember, supply and demand are at least as important as earnings in determining a stock's price, as long as the company has rapid growth. Mutual funds are also going to have to deal with this issue. If they want leaders they have to pay up for it.
The stock may get a little cheaper for two reasons. First, no one wants to catch a falling knife, so as buyers step aside it is very easy for the stock to be taken lower on even moderate selling. Second, it seems likely we will have at least some type of correction in the near future as the market takes a breather. I think the stock is cheap here, but am waiting for it to get cheaper before adding (soon).
Thanks for being one of the few to admit to losing money today. As you know I'm long and was not expecting anything like this. I thought there was a chance it might get some institutional support and stay in a narrow range, but never expected a sharp move higher. As I'm sure you know, when things seem too obvious it is often a good idea to be cautious. And when you are pronouncing with certainty that this stock won't rally anytime soon, look out. I'm annoyed because I missed a great rally on SLCA and EMES, stocks I had been watching, because I got seduced into thinking they were obviously going lower. I would expect CYBR to give back $1-$2 tomorrow, but not about to bet on it. But what I said recently was true--that often stocks get supported after secondaries. The timing of that upgrade was no accident. If those that can now sell after lockup expiration are convinced they can make money by holding long, then lockup is immediately neutralized.
Won't make it to 5,000,000 but no matter. Has already traded over 15 times average daily volume, which will attract considerable attention. Long term this stock can go much higher. I usually trade my stocks, but plan to hold this one long term.
jbird--I don't think anyone expected this today. Good thing you closed your short position and took profits. Smart move. I sold shares I bought around $49 for a quick 10% gain, and have Apr $55 calls written on shares I bought for $55. I think I will probably be able to sell those calls again after they expire. Seems unlikely we can hold such big gains today. Watching FEYE for a chance to buy below $40.
Some posters were even predicting the stock plummeting to the $20s. A few even told me I had no idea what I was talking about.. An event that happens so often that it is almost a rule, is that when people swarm all over to tell you how wrong you are, it often takes under 24 hours for them to be proven totally out of touch. No one knows what the market or any individual stock will do. It is all opinion. Those who know for certain typically lose $$$. I'll say it again. The smart money has already covered this recent pullback (IMO). I could be wrong, but that's my opinion for now.
How about you amohr? Have a short position? If you want a great long term short, take a look at the chart on VXX. The prospectus states that the way it is designed it will eventually go to zero (or so I have been told). Even on days when the market tanks, the rallies on VXX have been unimpressive. If the market corrects significantly and VXX goes higher, that's usually a good time to get in. I have made money in it every time I have traded it. I'm a little annoyed that I didn't have a current short position on the recent drop.
The bigger short term risk to the stock is simply buyers walking away while they wait for the lockup issue to pass. With buyers absent, it is fairly easy to push the stock down. But any big drop will be met with buying from those who have wanted to own the stock at a cheaper price IMO. I sold a few of the Apr $55 calls to reduce my cost basis just in case. Long term the stock should be fine, as any pullback will only be temporary. There is very good demand for this entire group.
Agree. Hopefully one or more of the analysts will like the story enough to give us some positive press and/or upgrades. I think we are headed higher this week.
Secondaries prices below market as the CYBR one was at the time of announcement of pricing, usually provide support for the stock at the price of the secondary. No way does this go into the low $40's, as even mid $40's (not likely IMO) would have people buying hand over fist. Selling the April $50 puts for $4 is worth considering given the volatility and popularity of this stock. Even if the stock somehow fell another $5 and you bought the stock for a small loss, you could turn around and sell the next month $45 calls for at least $3. I think mid $50's within a short term frame is very likely.
eat--You and a couple others here are thinking far too rationally. You don't believe in the wisdom of Charles (aka Chicken Little) about where the stock is headed? It certainly isn't bad news, but there was no reason to hype an announcement that should have little impact of the stock. I expect the shorts to knock back to around $12, and maybe even a little lower, but if they get too greedy buyers will send them scrambling to cover. I would love to see this kind of announcement done with some very positive news, but this just set up some traders to be very annoyed.
tooby---I was skeptical about this decision at first until I remembered an event that happened to me years ago. I had just played nine holes and was starving, so made a quick dash into the clubhouse for a sandwich. I was so hungry I was really looking forward to devouring my tuna sandwich, but didn't want to slow play so first hit my drive on the 10th hole. As I turned toward my cart, I saw a squirrel running away with half my sandwich. I really wanted revenge, but knew I would never be able to properly identify the culprit. Your suggestion would totally solve that problem, and hopefully discourage any future bandits, as well as reduce golf course robberies. Sorry, couldn't resist any longer.
amohr--Started a partial position here a few days ago at $21.88. You watching FEYE and CYBR? Hoping my FEYE shares won't be called away (Apr $41 written) so I can sell calls again for a nice premium. Same with 1/2 my CYBR shares. I think given the volatility in this sector there is a good chance I can trade in and out several times. If both beat earnings expectations they will be off to the races and at some point might be decent shorts. Or of course if they disappoint. That's why I'm using options here. FEYE could be back in low $30's if they disappoint or race toward $50. Hoping today's nice move in VDSI is the start of a big move.
Looks like you're feeling better! If you bought on the pullback, consider selling some. That way if the stock pulls back you can feel good that you made a nice profit on this bounce. If the stock continues soaring, worst thing is that you make great money on remaining holdings. It is not unusual to see huge volume one day followed by normal to even lower volume the next. If that happens we will see some profit taking. Good luck to you and other longs.