jbird--Funny. I started a position just under $39.00 yesterday. Hoping to see the stock move back into positive territory so I can sell the Apr $41 calls for over a buck, which would give me over $3 move in less than a month if called away, or a better overall cost basis if not called. You buy any yet?
If we get a bounce, you might consider selling some Apr $55 calls. They are only around $1.50 now, but with a pop in the stock that could quickly be $3. Takes some of the anxiety out of holding for two reasons: first you reduce your cost basis, and second, you feel more committed to holding through the volatility and letting things play out when you have covered calls. At $1.50 it really isn't worth it since you are capping the upside. Remember, one significant hack can quickly increase the price on all these stocks. Given the growth of this sector, I have to believe we will see significantly higher prices, although volatility along the way is a given. Patience.
The SEC won't do anything about this problem, and even looks the other way about naked shorting, which can potentially destroy companies. I have never heard of a single case of prosecution of naked short sellers. When a hedge fund decides to do this they can just keep selling at a given price so that the price cannot rise. Buyers get discouraged and then if the short sellers persist in selling they can easily push the stock down.
I think his "pump" probably had a longer time horizon that a few hours. Profit taking after yesterday's huge gain was to be expected. Given the $6 move yesterday and the lockup issue, the stock held up fairly well.
Kevin--I think the word you're looking for is "you're", not "your". Get an education before criticizing others. It might improve your credibility.
Here are a few other things to consider. People with very big profits often feel more secure about their stock because they have seen what it can do. Those who own it from $16 by and large are probably not traders. The upgrade in price target provides considerable support for the stock price and reduces the fear that could have caused a stampede to sell. Stock pricing is determined by supply/demand as much as valuation. With hacking not going away (this is not like the rare earth segment that rallied out of nowhere and then saw demand slip), many investors want to own this sector. Pullbacks will be met with more buying. The only question is how much of a pullback is needed to spur new buying. I don't see a huge risk to owning this stock unless growth slows significantly.
Won't make it to 5,000,000 but no matter. Has already traded over 15 times average daily volume, which will attract considerable attention. Long term this stock can go much higher. I usually trade my stocks, but plan to hold this one long term.
If you think the stock will hold up reasonably well but don't want to chase it (I wouldn't), you can sell the Apr $50 puts for $2.00 (so you own the stock at $48 less commissions if it pulls back and you take delivery of the stock) or even the $55 puts for $4.00 (which is what I would consider if I was in a losing short position).
I'm wondering same thing. If police departments start buying DGLY could explode higher. Holding long term here.
Thanks for being one of the few to admit to losing money today. As you know I'm long and was not expecting anything like this. I thought there was a chance it might get some institutional support and stay in a narrow range, but never expected a sharp move higher. As I'm sure you know, when things seem too obvious it is often a good idea to be cautious. And when you are pronouncing with certainty that this stock won't rally anytime soon, look out. I'm annoyed because I missed a great rally on SLCA and EMES, stocks I had been watching, because I got seduced into thinking they were obviously going lower. I would expect CYBR to give back $1-$2 tomorrow, but not about to bet on it. But what I said recently was true--that often stocks get supported after secondaries. The timing of that upgrade was no accident. If those that can now sell after lockup expiration are convinced they can make money by holding long, then lockup is immediately neutralized.
jbird--I don't think anyone expected this today. Good thing you closed your short position and took profits. Smart move. I sold shares I bought around $49 for a quick 10% gain, and have Apr $55 calls written on shares I bought for $55. I think I will probably be able to sell those calls again after they expire. Seems unlikely we can hold such big gains today. Watching FEYE for a chance to buy below $40.
When a trade seems too obvious it is time to be cautious.
jbird--A fair question. I'm a recent buyer and bought my shares on the way down after the highs were reached, so haven't lost much at this point. Cost basis is around $52, but actually a little less as I sold some Apr $55 calls in the $3 range on half my shares. I have a partial position so am not worried about it at this point. I did the same thing with FEYE, getting in a little early on the way down, but added enough shares near the bottom to turn a nice profit. Saw the last of my FEYE shares called away Friday. If I can get back in under $40, I'll do so and sell covered calls for a nice premium. Good move to take some profit. In this market a nice profit, especially if it is quick, is one I generally take.
Why aren't you short with all the doom and gloom posts? Today's drop was a combination of the entire sector pulling back and new buyers stepping away until the lockup issue has passed. I'm hoping we do get a significant pullback so I can add more. There is good demand for this stock, and once the price stabilizes a confluence of short covering and new buyers is likely to produce a strong rally. I'm looking for mid $40's to add (providing we are not in freefall), but IF the stock holds up well through the lockup expiration, it could take off from current levels. Be ready to buy at some point next week.
People are often willing to gamble when it is inexpensive to do so. Remember, most of the option money is made by the big players selling options.
How about you amohr? Have a short position? If you want a great long term short, take a look at the chart on VXX. The prospectus states that the way it is designed it will eventually go to zero (or so I have been told). Even on days when the market tanks, the rallies on VXX have been unimpressive. If the market corrects significantly and VXX goes higher, that's usually a good time to get in. I have made money in it every time I have traded it. I'm a little annoyed that I didn't have a current short position on the recent drop.
I'll do the same on the other side. I'm long with a cost basis around $52 and plan to hold through the lockup exp. I would like to know who actually has a short position as opposed to just giving an opinion.
The bigger short term risk to the stock is simply buyers walking away while they wait for the lockup issue to pass. With buyers absent, it is fairly easy to push the stock down. But any big drop will be met with buying from those who have wanted to own the stock at a cheaper price IMO. I sold a few of the Apr $55 calls to reduce my cost basis just in case. Long term the stock should be fine, as any pullback will only be temporary. There is very good demand for this entire group.
Some posters were even predicting the stock plummeting to the $20s. A few even told me I had no idea what I was talking about.. An event that happens so often that it is almost a rule, is that when people swarm all over to tell you how wrong you are, it often takes under 24 hours for them to be proven totally out of touch. No one knows what the market or any individual stock will do. It is all opinion. Those who know for certain typically lose $$$. I'll say it again. The smart money has already covered this recent pullback (IMO). I could be wrong, but that's my opinion for now.