I'm expecting a nice market rally tomorrow, as I think Yellen realizes the global economy is fragile and will be very cautious in her language about raising rates, hopefully giving the market something to celebrate. Just in case that happens, I'm short VXX. May buy more AAL if the market looks healthy tomorrow. Good luck fellow AAL longs!
HAHA. How does my timing suck? If it goes higher, I have a core position. Making a killing lately in trading options.
I bought more AAL yesterday at $35.30 and sold the Feb12 $35.50 calls for $.96. Not very exciting, but if I can make 3% on my money in 5 days I'll take it. Those are trading shares, which hopefully get called away.
So are you still holding or did you sell some? I bought GOOG at $674 today and sold a GOOG Feb12 $685 call for $10. Also bought VXX Feb19 $29 puts when the market was tanking. The AMZN buy seems very risky to me, even hoping for a bounce, as it is still overvalued. I bought AMZN Feb $530 puts about a week ago for $3 and thought I was brilliant when I sold one for $6 the next day and the other for $20 a few days later. Could have sold them for $50 today had I held.
Stox--FANG is a great trading stock either direction. I posted on the FANG website that it would be mid $60's by the end of last week. I was feeling pretty stupid when the stock was over $75 on Thursday, but then it crashed and I took my profit late Friday, and then sold my last put this morning before the rally. Tell my why FANG isn't going to crash like almost everything else in the sector. Seriously, I'm open minded.
Good luck to you. Do you know of any good message board where they discuss short term trading ideas? I would be interested in sharing ideas with you and a few others. I bought 2 AMZN Feb 19 $530 puts a week ago for $3, selling one Monday for $6 and another yesterday for $20. Today bought expiring AMZN calls $510 calls for $2.50 when the selling seemed way overdone, and sold a couple hours later for $4.80. Also recently bought FANG puts (too early), but made money and still holding some. And have some Mar CMG puts because I think their damaged rep will make investors and diners shy away for awhile. With this volatility, I am doing best buying well out of the money puts near expiration for low price. Hopefully at some point I can do same with calls.
Haha. That would be a dream. If we see $720 at some point during the day I would be very happy.
If you feel like gambling, you can buy the $720 calls expiring tomorrow for around $1.50. I bought one lottery ticket just in case. Have made enough shorting AMZN to be willing to waste $150.
I have been getting killed on FANG puts but things looking much better suddenly. Hopefully AAL keep chugging higher to $40ish.
Possible. In this market you can short just about anything that has a sharp move higher and make money. Would not surprise me to see CMG at $400 in a couple weeks or less.
I believe it is a rally within a bear market and am shorting any big moves higher on various stocks. Nice to see AAL moving higher, as I'm still long here.
July $630 calls are getting cheaper because AMZN is not going back to $630. It will likely be sub $500 in the near future. The market has grown tired of patiently waiting for big profits and is now looking at PE, which is very bad for AMZN. This has happened throughout the market with stocks that were pricey because of promised future earnings, so the only surprise is that AMZN hasn't been taken down sooner. Just for fun a bought a couple AMZN Feb 19 $530 puts last Friday for $3. Sold one Monday for $6 and the other yesterday for $20. Wishing I had bought a large position, but IMO buying puts still a good idea.
Even if fundamentals haven't changed, the perception of those fundamentals has, as the market grows more and more intolerant of sky high PEs. And the promise of big profits in the future is growing old. AMZN is in a jam now. If they change their strategy and decide to focus on making money, then the growth will slow and stock will fall. If they stick with their same strategy, at some point the market realizes they may never be able to justify their market cap.
GOOG was around $15 off its high. If tomorrow is like today, people will start selling indiscriminately to raise cash. If that happens there won't be many buyers stepping in front of the train to balance the selling. Longs need to hope for some very good news or a strong open. I think we got our big move on Friday and will have to retreat further before the next major rally.
In a bull market, AMZN is great because growth is key. In a bear market, value matter much more and AMZN is one of the worst stocks to own. If the market opens down significantly, AMZN could go into a free fall and hit $500 by the end of the week, if not sooner.
If the market is now going to look at PE for valuing the company, then AMZN will keep falling for awhile. If we are in a bear market, that is what we should expect.
OK, if you're serious, don't panic. Futures are lower and many think this market goes much lower. You can also consider selling Feb 12 $27 puts for around $2. If you get a chance to get out flat, you should probably take it. Best not to short a stock that has already been beaten down this far.
Futures are lower and AAL has had trouble moving higher several days consecutively.
Might hold water in a bull market, but this market has been ugly and is not finished pulling back. It rallied back to slightly higher today and AMZN was still off $12. It seems unlikely to hold tomorrow, as oil is pulling back and futures are lower. If the market tires of all the empty earnings promises, which is very possible in market retreat, things could get very ugly. AMZN could easily be under $500 in a couple weeks. If you're long, consider at least selling some out of the money covered calls.