Not so. Take a look at the announcement. There was a specific mentioning of the conversion price ($1.35 or so).
may well be this. But how is the $4.90 cited purchase price calculated?
Yes. But it will stay under 5 for the first half of the year till July.
Under 4 would be safe.
I have my eyes on $3.92 buy order
I was correct in both:
1) It is difficult for MM to play this ER. NOT because there was no excuses, but because a lot of hedging made it not profitable for them to move either way big.
2) It is no-event (with a 7% drop and steady back in a week)
The game is more or less "who dies first".
between Lynas and Molycorp, I would say Molycorp has better chances based on cash at hand and cash burn rate. Of course Lynas may have to raise more cash, but so could Molycorp. Whoever survives will take all home.
Correction: base on the AH play by XX, I see a 7% drop tomorrow. But that is way better than otherwise a 15% haircut. Thanks for the sellers today!
My advice; If you want it up, sell your chips at low
If you want it down, buy at low (it will get lower)
Today's trading pattern indicated a lot of escape (hedging for the bad news). The net result is likely to be difficult for the MM to play the small guys tomorrow base don the earnings result ( i see they tried during AH).
If they pump, there will be more selling gradually, but if they dump, there will be a lot of catch backs from seller of the past few days.
So, as I have said last week, it is no-event for now.
From now on, except for SorbeX, the fate is out of of the control of the company and in the hands of Chinese.
But, don't worry about that, the Chinese also want to hike the RE prices desperately. let them work on it and we all fall back and wait.
If we are lucky, SorbeX will make a break. Then ,sky is the limit.
Take a close look at the transaction filed: 2 at the same time, one acquisition, one disposition.
The acquisition has 0 cost (meaning he got it as part of the bonus) while the sale is at $5.62
Q: If not for the public filing , would he sell all of the 90K shares he got at 0 cost?
I am with you on this one.
That said, I do think that this is not some dleberate pump since the information was "hidding" deep in the website, not obvious.
But to much hype may jiust ruin it as you worried.
The obvious is to know HOWE MUCH this facility is paying currently using the old ferric chloride technology.
I blieve that a big cost of the old way is sludge disposal.
That would make too many small guys happy because they sold last year for tax loss and are waiting for chance to get back in.
What you think the big money will do?