Ruger officers and directors sold 51,832 shares on approximately March 4, 2013. The sales are recorded on the MSN Money site. Obviously these tiny transactions could not have perturbed the share price by the same magnitude as the sale of 480,000 shares by Allianz, 800,000 by Tiger, or 500,000 by Impala.
From Chicago Mayoral Office January 2013 press release:
"Mayor Emanuel is sending a letter today to the chief executives of Allianz, BlackRock, Dimensional Fund Advisors, Vanguard, James Investment Research and Capital World Investments. All of the funds own stock of gun manufacturers who are actively lobbying against safety reforms. The mayor is asking the mutual funds to divest from these companies until they support these reforms."
Of these 5 large shareholders, only Allianz divested a significant amount of Ruger shares, about 480,000 as of March 2013, or 1/3 of its shareholdings. I assume Allianz continues to divest in the second quarter, since there was a massive selloff of Ruger shares after earnings.. You can see the Allianz shareholdings on the SEC websiter, or on the MSN Money ownership site (mutual fund is named NFJ Inv Group, instead of Allianz.)
In the 10-Q filing for the first quarter Ruger published a cash flow statement, on page 7. This SEC filing is available on the Ruger web site, under the "Corporate" section.
In the Financing Activities section of the Condensed Statement of Cash Flow, there is no entry for "Repurchases of Common Stock." That means Ruger did not repurchase any common stock from anybody, any time in the first quarter.
You might want to compare the cash flow statement from Ruger with the cash flow statement from a company such as Philip Morris Int'l, which is actively repurchasing stock. They show, in the Section of Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flow, under the heading CASH PROVIDED BY (USED IN ) FINANCING ACTIVITY, "Repurchases of Common Stock"=$1.453 billion. This is the section that contains a blank in the Ruger cash flow statement.
I'll try to post a link to the Ruger statement in a reply to this message, don't know if Yahoo will permit it.
That is fascinating. It means the people who attempted to bully institutions into boycotting Ruger shares were partially successful. It would be good if one were a short seller. However, they are still here, and did not exit when the stock dropped to $41 per share. Maybe they will be trapped and forced to cover.
I agree that the top institutional holder appear to have sold net 2.6 million shares. Who bought these? Certainly not the tiny retail contingent......We'll see when the 13G filings pop up, which should be any day now.
Sturm Ruger Inst Shareholders
2013 Q1 2012 Q4 change
Blackrock 1,523,698 1,436,280 87,418
Vanguard Group Inc. 1,488,477 1,368,861 119,616
London Company 1,424,306 1,354,812 69,494
Capital World Investors 1,245,000 1,245,000 0
Allianz Asset Mgmnt 884,842 1,365,828 -480,986
Dimensional Fund Advisors 491,277 484,656 6,621
Morgan Dempsey 242,130 226485 15,645
Renaissance Technology 160,000 480,900 -320,900
Valinor Management LLC 0 270,179 -270,179
Tiger Global Mgmnt 0 800,000 -800,000
Impala Asset Mgmt 0 547,686 -547,686
Highside Capital Mgmt 0 251,807 -251,807
They deleted my hand-created spreadsheet which I tried to publish. However, they allowed me to copy a spreadsheet from Microsoft Excel directly onto the message board.
Sturm Ruger holdings by Dimensional Fund Advisors
The first time I posted this information, the Yahoo computers deleted it in a flash.
One of the problems with using the Savage transaction as a benchmark for Ruger takeover value is we don't know what time period, or what assumptions, are involved in the claim that Savage was priced at 5.5x EBIDTA. Was that 2012 EBIDTA, or perhaps 2013 or 2014 EBIDTA, and what growth rate was assumed? The same problem occurs with the Ruger calculation. What earnings growth rate should we use? Maybe 50%? or maybe negative 33%, as on the Yahoo analyst consensus? And what time period should we use for EBIDTA?
In my opinion, these are "magical numbers" that can be whatever we want to make them.
Yahoo reveals the analysts' firms under "Analyst Opinion", but not their names. For example, SWHC has 6.00 earnings estimates, and there are 7 firms listed: KeyBanc, Benchmark, Davidson, Merriman, CL King, Wedbush, Cowen. I assume the analysts are from these firms.
For Ruger, there are 2 or 3 analysts used for Yahoo estimates, and it appears they are drawn from KeyBanc, Benchmark, Merriman, and CL King.
The most active analyst seems to be Scott Hammann from Keybanc.
I do not believe it is probable that analysts are objective or impartial. We are not paying their salaries, and they don't care what happens to us. Remember how Henry Blodgett, of Amazon fame, was banned from the securities business for being too truthful.
I have a feeling all the short interest shares are hedged against another asset. Not sure what that asset could be. Maybe some small-cap index.....
We can see why Mr. Fifer estimates CAPEX based on the distributor sell-through, instead of the order backlog.
MIchael Fifer at the Annual Meeting:
"Now there's complicated table up here, but I show it for a couple of good reasons. First, look at the bookings a year ago in the fourth quarter of '11
there at about 450,000. And then the first quarter of '12 was 1.2 million. And that's the quarter where I stopped taking orders.
I thought it was the responsible thing to do because, remember we had just finished our campaign of trying to be the first company in history to
ever make and sell one million guns in one year. And here in one quarter they order 1.2 million guns. And I didn't think there was any point on
having orders on the books that went out beyond a year because it would just cloud everything. The distributors wouldn't really know what they
were going to get they've got so much on order. The whole thing just didn't make sense because we're a sell goods company. This should be any
easy business to run from both sides.
And cutting off orders actually backfired a little bit. We explained what we were doing. We issued a press release that was in absolute plain English
and only a couple sentences long. And nobody read it correctly. People assumed we'd stopped production. People assumed we'd stop selling.
They did everything but actually the press release and see that in fact all we had done is ask the distributors to hold off on orders that would caught
up a little bit.
So this year we didn't do it. And this year instead of only getting 450,000 units ordered in the fourth quarter, we got over a million units ordered
in the fourth quarter. And then we were well on our way to probably a multimillion series of bookings in the first quarter here. And I put a halt to
it and limited the orders that were coming in because otherwise it would just be unmanageable."
2011 Jan 784,856
2011 Feb 963,746
2011 Mar 990,840
2011 Apr 843,484
2011 May 696,947
2011 Jun 679,840
2011 Jul 680,258
2011 Aug 815,858
2011 Sept 878,345
2011 Oct 945,088
2011 Nov 1,101,076
2011 Dec 1,410,937
2012 Jan 920,840
2012 Feb 1,266,344
2012 Mar 1,189,152
2012 Apr 931,660
2012 May 840,412
2012 Jun 846,437
2012 Jul 853,355
2012 Aug 1,042,924
2012 Sept 1,007,259
2012 Oct 1,118,944
2012 Nov 1,525,177
2012 Dec 2,237,731
2013 Jan 1,790,154
2013 Feb 1,634,309
2013 Mar 1,501,730
2013 Apr 1,185,231
From the NSSF Bullet Points news. April 2013 was 1.185 million checks, versus 931,666 April 2012. Kentucky, Iowa, and Michigan checks on CCW permit applications and active CCW permit databases were subtracted.