Yahoo has market cap=$1.41 billion, and EBIDTA $328 million, at today's price of $53.5. That means shares are trading at only 4.3x EBIDTA today. Seems a tad on the low side.
Stifel estimates are very pessimistic compared with others. Mr. Baudendistel needs to explain why he is so low compared with the two large consulting firms, EPA Associates and FTR Associates.
Railcar Delivery estimates (thousands)
. 2015.. 2016..2017
STIFEL . 84.....74.....64
FTR Associates 90.... 88.... .76
EPA Associates 85.... 80.5..75.8
Stifel estimates published in Research Note
FTR estimates displayed on graph in Greenbrier's May 2015, Investor Day Presentation, slide#7
EPA estimates from March 2015 Railway Age article
(Links are posted on my Seeking Alpha comment on the GBX Board. Can't post links on Yahoo).
Plunging railcar manufacturer share prices might make you think railroad traffic has plunged. That's false, it's only down about 1% YTD.
From the Am Assn of RR:
"For the first 23 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 6,384,231 carloads, down 3.4 percent from the same point last year; and 6,052,558 intermodal units, up 2.3 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 23 weeks of 2015 was 12,436,789 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 0.7 percent compared to last year,"
Wouldn't you think that some of the excitement surrounding CSX would blow over to NSC? They're both small Class 1 RR's, and could easily be acquired by the giants, if STB would consent.
Isn't the problem for Norfolk Southern that coal shipments are down due to natural gas substitution in power plants? And the first quarter GDP growth of 0.2% means fewer goods were transported by rail than analysts assumed? Not clear to me how this is a management deficiency.
Is CSX the RR that declined merger talks with CP? Suppose the largest shareholder of CP turns out to be the CSX suitor? That would be Mr. Ackman.
All the accusations are anonymous, Whoever spoke with Patrick Lee, reporter at Bloomberg, can deny he said anything. So there cannot be any perjury. That is the beauty of anonymous accusations.
What is the worst case for Trinity Industries? DOJ could arrest Trinity CEO at his home, and "perp walk" him in front of his neighbors. Judge Gilstrap could ignore science and evidence, and award huge penalties for every ET-Plus endplate ever manufactured. Fifth Circuit could decline to hear appeal. Case could follow the trajectory of the BP Deepwater Horizon spill in 2010, where company settled with U.S. government, but continued to fight claims from multiple state and local agencies, and individual claimants, so that after five years elapsed, $42 billion has been paid ,and no end is in sight.
It worries me that the standard of proof in the trial was only for a few competitors to allege that the guardrails were "dangerous". All it took was a few photographs and the competitors's claims. Nobody ever proved anything, at least not the way a scientist would expect. Nobody cares that the Eastern District in Texas is world-renowned for huge jury verdicts against corporations.
The news release seemed designed to be dramatic, and damage the stock price abruptly. It worries me that a team of U.S. government officials, plaintiff's lawyers, and short sellers can work to damage the price of a U.S. corporation with minimal evidence, and loot the assets of the corporation and its shareholders.
The "news" of the Federal investigation which was leaked to Bloomberg pushed the price of Trinity shares downwards, without any specific allegations. It was all vague innuendo and smoke. What was the purpose of the "leak", unless it was to move the share price?
Today, nearly one day's volume has traded in the first 1.5 hours of trading. There has been no news. Am I the only person who finds this unusual?
I assume either (1) CSX is repurchasing its own shares, or (2)an algorithmic trader is manipulating CSX share price. Other possibilities include a pending merger announcement, or a hedge fund getting involved. There sure are a lot of robot generated messages here--not sure why that is occurring.
What makes you think UNP isn't going to disappoint? Their car loading stats look pretty weak, compared with expectations for revenue growth...
"NTSB wants all tanks in a blanket" is the title of an article which states the new tank car standards from the NTSB will be published on approximately May 15. Should be good for a deluge of new orders for Trinity and Greenbrier.