Here is part of the problem: NMM business revenue is partially generated in foreign currencies. However, repayment of any existing USA corporate debt is in US dollars against a 23 percent rise in currency exchange rates. The USA dollar is getting much stronger.
The market perception may be worse than the reality. Just my take on it.
If you believe that this company is going bankrupt, one should get out now!
On the other hand, here is the woman at the helm. From her history, and my holding experience, I'm of the view that it's a time to consider bulking up at bargain values..
"In 2004, Frangou raised $200 million to buy Navios. Previously she was working on Wall St as an analyst on the trading floor of Republic National Bank for a couple of years. As of December 2014, Navios Group controls 149 dry bulk carriers, 50 tankers and 12 container vessels. Between 2004- 2014, "the Navios group has raised a shade under $10bn in financing - $6.3bn from the capital markets and 3.6bn from bank debt". Angeliki Frangou demostrates an acute ability to grasp both the financial and shipping markets. "She is just as happy to mull over the fuel economies that can be achieved by proper sandblasting as she is to discuss the intricacies of financial tools". Being a woman in a male dominated industry does not seem to pose an issue for her. Asked about the role of women in top posts in shipping, she retorted that "I don't believe in gender, race, religion. I think it's what you want to make it. If you ever thought that you work in a company for any other reason than your ability, you should leave!"
If the books are cooked or the CEO is not truthful, then we’re in deep trouble. Share prices are headed to 2008-2009 levels and NMM paid dividends during those dark days when many companies lowered or discontinued paying dividends. They have not missed a dividend in more than seven years.
One might believe the downward stock price is connected with the decline of Oils, Exxon and others, in combination with the Euro and financial problems in Greece. I have no clue.
My point is this:
This stock (units) was selling at more than $20 per during August 2014. That would have been the time to market additional units rather than at $13. They missed the "high". Is that not true?
Did they mess-up on financing?
Understanding the historic pattern of the unit price range, why would they not issue additional shares at $17 or 18, rather than $13? Or did they not foresee the price side and need added cash for prior commitments?
The next scheduled dividend payment should be during February. If the payment is equal to $0.80 per share annualized, a reduction of a about one half of the past, the dividend return will still be 20 percent at a per share price of $4.00. That seems an acceptable level of risk considering that natural gas, not oil, produces a significant portion of the revenue into the Trust.