instead of accepting that Amazon prime with HBO and the lack of new "good" content (they had Breaking Bad last year) is driving slower growth he blames the price increase bringing back Qwickster memories...
Now that is some serious amount, if they decide to allocate a small portion of it to Silver the market will explode. As Renminbi seeks reserve status China will buy gold and silver to back it up IMO.
Revenue of RMB11.986 in quarter was in-line with their estimates ("ranging from RMB11.820 billion ($1.901 billion) to RMB12.110 billion ($1.948 billion)", bottom line blew past analyst view (Baidu only gives top line guidance), yet they had said this was an investment year. Three times analyst asked what to expect going forward and Baidu reiterated no net income growth in 2014. Something missing in this picture, and why place $1B in notes if all is going so well? (and those thinking money is for war chest, they have placed $1B debt offering every year for the past three years).
$11B in revenue by 2015, less that $2B net income you do the math.
I get that Priceline is still growing eps and revenue. As a growth stock (no div and buyback anomaly due to Kayak) they need to continue Q over Q acceleration. They guided down, doesn't matter how analyst sugar coat it. At $68B market cap, when you compare with Expedia there are no questions risk is to the downside on this stock. Think about a $1,500 price target is 15% increase, the stock navigated that in the month of February going from circa $1,100 to $1,300. It was $700 a year ago, you think growth is in the price already? I mean $30B gain in market cap...yet revenue will grow by less than $2B next two years...drink more of that coolaid!
Lastly, everyone is bullish the stock, it has already gone up 100x. Seems like Apple in the $700 range to me.
Stock went up $57 when expedia announced, $33 when tripadvisor and $29 with orbitz a total of $119 over a week. And $200 since Feb 3. Not to mention lowered both revenue and eps targets, unless you think analyst can't read a calendar knowing easter is later than last year...
as defined by wiki :A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to its investors from existing capital or new capital paid by new investors, rather than from profit earned by the individual or organization running the operation"
In this case AZO pays investors with new debt issuance, since operating cashflows are barely sufficient to keep the lights on ($1.4B in cash needed for the next 12mo.). The irony is with shares at these levels they either have to:a) issue more debt or b) buyback less shares. Either will reduce EPS growth rate which has been the Co's story to investors since revenue is barely moving..
I will concede that its been years that I have been bearish the stock, and would have done much better just buying and ignoring reality. A shame markets can stay irrational longer that some can stay solvent.
Last year they increased net income by $86M and debt by $418M. This fiscal year they need $1.4B to keeps the light on, and they generate an average of $1B in cash before debt and share repurchases.
thanks for the insight. You would think someone like Walmart or Home Depot would be able to do the same with their suppliers yielding the market power that they do, in context Walmart sells $475B and they are known for squeezing their providers. Something is amiss, O% same store sale growth last year, 0.9% for first quarter at some point the music will stop in my opinion
Please, someone, anyone explain to me how this company can maintain a negative $1.7 Billion (with a B) in shareholder value, have a negative working capital of 0.962 Billion and an ap to inv ratio of 115%?
Look at any retailer, from Home Depot, Walmart to specialty retailers and not one have these metrics; is Autozone in the Zone, cooking the books or am I missing something?
The news broke that NSA tracks credit card transactions, specifically Visa and Mastercard, broke in September coincident with declining volumes. Causation or Correlation?
IBM orders plummeted for hardware, will the world stop using US based processors?
No, but Coke depends on people drinking Tons to keep making money, the moment people do start controlling themselves, their consumption should naturally decline. That said, there will always be people that can care less about the impact of a product to ones health; to many examples to list here.
My point is that demand for products with adverse health effects declines over time. The companies selling these toxic products typically seek growth in "developing" countries where people either have less information or are less health conscious.
As an example I use an analogy with the Tabacco industry, which suprisingly considering the impact of cigarettes on health, there are still 1B smokers worldwide, but in the US "Smoking rates in the United States have dropped by half from 1965 to 2006 falling from 42% to 20.8% of adults"
My hypothesis would say Soda product demand will decline in developed countries over time, leading to a declining cash flow for Coke with the stock following the trend.
Truly with close to $50B in sales and a $175B market cap how much room for growth is there. Yes, I do understand they plan on selling more cases ad infinitum, primarly counting on developing countries growth of middle class.
All my humble opinion