Do you own shares? If so, what month did you hedge with?
That's what the real relevance of this discussion is about to retail investors. The cost of Dec puts is considerably more than Oct if it looks like no news before Sept 20.
Instead of "affect the stock price" I should have said "affect the company's bottom line" - meaning something that affects the ability of the company to continue to earn revenue this quarter.
Bing it: fda requirement for statistical analysis clinical trial
Because AMR-001 was a double-blind trial, it could take longer to complete analysis of results. I would assume results have to also be audited and if there were problems detected, it could take some time to re-analyze the data if required (perhaps restarting the entire process).
The only SEC requirement I can find for publication of material information is that it be made on a "timely basis." It has to be non-selective, i.e. disseminated universally at the same time. Timely is suggested to be 2 days for the US, but I see that only as a suggestion. It would seem a company can sit on information as long as it be kept confidential, unless it would immediately affect the stock price (like a manufacturing plant explosion).
What's notable is that the biotech index (IBB and BBH) were both down 1.6 percent and OREX was up over 3%. Most of the 100 baby bios on my watch list were red yesterday.
It could have been reported from a dark pool. Was it reported through ADF? Perhaps a large player wanted to take a stake and a trade that large would have been impossible to execute efficiently in the open market. IMHO a lot of the institutional large block trades originate in dark pools these days.
Question would be why would they buy that many shares in one day? Why not accumulate over multiple days or weeks?
IMHO the stock seems to be just following its technical trading pattern. As long as IBB and BBH are stable, bottom should be 5.50, then we start moving back up to 6.20 on low volume.
The odd thing seems to be more that the pending results seems to be off the radar of investors. Perhaps that's because mgmt was so vague about when top-line results would be released.
If NBS had more press like ARWR, we might be seeing some of the same action. ARWR release
preliminary top-line results a couple weeks ago (released data on trial that was still blinded!!). I made some a quick $23K, but sold too soon. Could have made over $50K there if I was a better trader.
Subscribe to Today's Top 5 Trades (Bing it). They have a pretty good track record for free advice.
They send out emails once or twice a week. Some have options plays. I'm in the LUV trade (long calls).
Just exited the UUP trade for over 40 percent gain in three weeks. I set my sell order too low on that one because it popped today.
Looks like I will also bank a small but low risk return ($2300) in CSIQ (just put that one on yesterday - bought 2000 shares and sold Oct calls in the money).
Let's hope if works out like KERX. I could be up today almost $1M on that one, but I got cold feet because they also delayed releasing results far beyond their originally estimated and published date. At least I made a little over 50K on my 60K shares. I think they delayed so they could prepare a secondary which they did immediately after releasing results. The price tripled on results and has doubled since from there.
Actually it's quite the opposite. If a study is successful, top line results generates interest. Think of top line results as an advertisement for attending the conference.
The conference would have strict rules on how much data can be released as top line results (went through this debate on the MNKD board recently). Researchers and especially institutional investors want to see the complete story, so they flock to the conference to get the full data and pose questions to the clinical trial administrators.
Three more form 4's filed. Not bad, one flipped his shares and two exercised and held them. Still looks bullish to me.
U forgot to mention that inhalable basil insulin has been formulated and patented with Technoshpere. I'm not sure if this is the "new process" that the CEO leaked on the last CC. That opens the door to "combo" formulations of inhalable insulin and no need for needles at all.