% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Trius Therapeutics, AŞ Message Board

pylesm 49 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2016 7:42 PM Member since: Jan 6, 1999
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • pylesm pylesm Apr 14, 2016 7:42 PM Flag

    I'm referring to the initial conversion only (not the additional one).

  • pylesm pylesm Apr 14, 2016 7:41 PM Flag

    And as you also stated, the original conversion rate of 160 shares per $1000 note would have caused 10273120 shares to be issued. With the new deal, 8,732,152 will be issued.

    At first I thought MACK was getting a bad deal. Now it looks like the warrant holders are taking a haircut.

    The only reason I can assume they are doing the deal is to cash out early, given the rates on high yield debt have risen... so they should be able to cash out and re-lend at a much better rate than 4.5%. Otherwise, why would they do it, since they can convert at any time so long as the terms are met as defined in the original agreement under section: Conversion Upon Satisfaction of Sale Price Condition.

  • pylesm pylesm Apr 14, 2016 6:55 PM Flag

    So if everything was converted at once, using my 8.5 VWAP, the math would look like this:

    64207000 + 27696332 = 91903332
    91903332 / 12M = $7.65 / share

  • pylesm pylesm Apr 14, 2016 6:52 PM Flag

    So after re-reading the original terms, what you're implying makes more sense.

    MACK has altered the agreement to force a new option for early conversion... where about $27M out of the remaining $60M will be converted based on 10day trailing VWAP.

    Given I'm holding 30K shares now, this looks like a much better deal than I first assumed. I think I can live with these terms. It also should lower the short interest. I guess we'll see.

  • pylesm pylesm Apr 14, 2016 6:32 PM Flag

    Perhaps I misinterpreted the press release. I took the "Additional Closing" to be an add-on to those same warrant holders that were part of the initial conversion. Apparently Canphan7 and Brandon did as well based on their post.

    Are you implying that the "Additional Closing" is separate and distinct from the original one?

    Using 8.5 as my VWAP:
    27696332 / 8.5 = 3258392 shares

    Add those to the original total and you get 8,732,152 + 3258392 = 11990554 shares (about 12M)
    So the final price per share is about $5.35. 64207000 / 12000000 = $5.35.

    In addition, pursuant to the Conversion Agreements, at the Additional Closings (as defined in the Conversion Agreements), the Holders of the Notes will receive a number of shares of the Company's common stock representing an aggregate of $27,696,332 as additional payments in respect of the conversion of the Notes, such number of shares determined based on the Daily VWAP (as defined in the Conversion Agreements) of the Company's common stock for each of the trading days in the 10-day trading period following the date of the Conversion Agreements. The number of shares to be issued on each Additional Closing is defined in the Conversion Agreements as the "Daily Share Amount".

  • Reply to

    Time to move on

    by canphan7 Apr 14, 2016 10:11 AM
    pylesm pylesm Apr 14, 2016 12:09 PM Flag

    The original deal terms would have issued 10273120 shares to convert $64207000 of debt. The new deal issues about 12M. ???

  • Reply to

    Time to move on

    by canphan7 Apr 14, 2016 10:11 AM
    pylesm pylesm Apr 14, 2016 11:56 AM Flag

    Here are the original terms for early conversion... so it looks like MACK is giving the warrant holders a better deal to convert early... strange... I guess we wait for earnings to understand this?

    The Notes are convertible, under certain circumstances and during certain periods, at the option of the holder, based on an initial conversion rate of 160.0000 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of Notes, which is equivalent to an initial conversion price of $6.25 per share of common stock, subject to adjustment in certain circumstances.

  • Reply to

    Time to move on

    by canphan7 Apr 14, 2016 10:11 AM
    pylesm pylesm Apr 14, 2016 11:35 AM Flag

    You might look into an options strangle or straddle for LPCN. They are the only man left standing in the near term oral TRT market with a June 28 PDUFA. The stock will likely move sharply up or down depending on FDA decision... assuming they don't end up with a 30 - 90 day delay.

  • Reply to

    Time to move on

    by canphan7 Apr 14, 2016 10:11 AM
    pylesm pylesm Apr 14, 2016 11:21 AM Flag

    Based on the price movement, it looks like this was being priced in. I'm guessing MACK would have closed at 9 yesterday, so with the approximate 12M new shares (10% dilution), the stock has dropped 10% to 8.10. The question remains whether the converts will take the $$$ and run when they get their shares.

    I don't know what the original deal spec'd for early conversion so hard to judge the why the approximate price of $5.35/share.

  • pylesm pylesm Apr 6, 2016 11:35 AM Flag

    Major short squeeze under way for the biotech ETFs... generating volume in their underlying holdings.

  • Reply to

    SUNE is done

    by beaconbart Apr 1, 2016 4:29 PM
    pylesm pylesm Apr 1, 2016 4:49 PM Flag

    Get a new parent. CSIQ?

  • Reply to

    Check MDVN AH trading

    by hsu6744 Mar 30, 2016 11:21 PM
    pylesm pylesm Mar 31, 2016 12:39 PM Flag

    Takeover talk seems to be reassuring market that Congress or FDA will not remove MDVN's patent protection. MDVN had traded down on that speculation.

  • pylesm pylesm Mar 30, 2016 2:40 AM Flag

    The CHMP members provide their comments and following plenary discussion, a final consolidated list of questions is agreed by the CHMP on day 120 and communicated to the applicant. The procedure clock is stopped, usually for up to 3 months but with a possibility to extend by a further 3 months maximum.

    On receipt of the responses from the applicant, the clock is re-started (day 121) and the rapporteur and co-rapporteur prepare a joint assessment report of the responses by day 150. Any issue(s) identified are discussed on day 180 during the plenary CHMP meeting and a decision may be made on whether to issue a positive CHMP opinion. If there still are any outstanding or unresolved issues, the clock is stopped again. APPLICANTS NORMALLY RESPOND WITHIN 1 month but in exceptional circumstances, a further EXTENSION of 1 month (or maximum 2 months) may be granted if justified by the applicant and agreed by the CHMP. Day 181 is the re-start of the clock when the response is assessed and an oral explanation may take place. On or before day 210, the CHMP adopts its opinion.

  • pylesm pylesm Mar 29, 2016 10:37 AM Flag

    3.4.5. - irinotecan - Orphan - EMEA/H/C/004125
    Baxter Innovations GmbH; treatment of pancreatic cancer Scope: Letter from the applicant dated 18 March 2016 requesting extension of clock stop to respond to List of Outstanding Issues. List of Outstanding Issues adopted on 25.02.2016. List of Questions adopted on 24.09.2015.

  • Reply to

    Yasir just presented at Barclays...

    by italian30_2000 Mar 15, 2016 5:59 PM
    pylesm pylesm Mar 17, 2016 6:39 PM Flag

    Here's one example I found where a phase II trial was used as the basis for label expansion. I'm wondering if the recent strength in the stock price was in part due to the Barclay's presentation where, for the first time, mgmt. alluded to the possibility that Onivyde + 5fu could beat gem+abraxane. If so, I'm wondering if MACK could file for first line for Oni + 5fu.

    Velcade expansion based on phase II trial...

    The FDA has expanded the bortezomib (Velcade) label to allow for retreatment in patients with multiple myeloma who previously responded to the proteasome inhibitor, according to an announcement made by Millennium/Takeda, the companies that manufacture the drug.The expanded approval was based on findings from the phase II RETRIEVE study that explored intravenous bortezomib retreatment in 130 patients with multiple myeloma.

  • Reply to

    Yasir just presented at Barclays...

    by italian30_2000 Mar 15, 2016 5:59 PM
    pylesm pylesm Mar 17, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    I was wondering if MACK can apply for a label expansion on the basis of results for the nal-IRI + 5#$%$/LV arm of NCT02551991.

  • pylesm pylesm Mar 7, 2016 6:00 PM Flag

    I'm patiently waiting to see if IBB retests 289 and 299 levels. They are critical because they bump up against the top of the trend line established before the Jan selloff.

    I'm not sure how to interpret the March options when predicting a price level, so I've not sold any calls.

  • In case you're interested in speculation, SeekingAlpha article out today on benefits of tax inversion merger of Biogen and Shire.

  • Reply to

    Bear trap

    by canphan7 Mar 1, 2016 10:24 AM
    pylesm pylesm Mar 1, 2016 4:48 PM Flag

    Ultimately, I hope to see MACK look like SGEN...

    SGEN Revenues in M
    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
    94.78 210.81 269.26 286.76 336.8

    SGEN $31.76/share, market cap 4.47B, ~140M shares outstanding.

  • Reply to

    Bear trap

    by canphan7 Mar 1, 2016 10:24 AM
    pylesm pylesm Mar 1, 2016 1:07 PM Flag

    MM is probably sitting on all those long Mar puts. Someone (Inns?) is shorting MACK using March puts. I've been wondering what the price action might be as we approached March 18.