Before IBB flattens, it's possible it could participate in a bear market rally and go back up. MACK could rally to somewhere between 7 and 7.62.
If sales are OK, MACK's year is 2017... with some major catalysts: MM302 data, MM302 partnership, MM302 accelerated approval filing, MM398 front line PC data.
I agree w/Big that it depends on where biotech settles. I'm thinking IBB flattens at 225. That's about 33% less that it was when JPM set their $14 target. So if you adjust it down by 33%, you get $9.40. That seems reasonable to me.
One point though is that given the OS data, I would think the estimated average course of treatment of four months would need to be adjusted up.
So far most analysts have refrained from adjusting targets down in the wake of the selloff. Barclays did adjust its CELG target down to 120. I watched an interview on Bloomberg where the moderator ask an analyst when they were going to do this. The analyst side-stepped the question. Perhaps they see no reason to do so until the selloff settles out.
I don't expect much from Q4. I'm looking for 300K to 500K. JMP estimates 75M in sales in 2016. That can be achieved by a simple double of sales each Q in 2016:
5M, 10M, 20M, 40M for a 2016 total of 75M.
Short the market. If you don't have rights to short stocks, use ITM puts to short stocks and ETFs.
Oil is still coupled to bio due to its links to the high yield market (distressed loans). Bio leans on the high yield market for cash to survive. On top of that, there's political rhetoric. IMHO the rewards in bio are not worth the risk at the moment. Good news is quickly sold after a pop.
Talking heads (Goldman, Citi, etc.) are expecting oil markets to rebalance in Q4. Until then, expect bankruptcies to increase as oil futures contracts start to expire this Q. That's likely the next catalyst down for the market.
Things may get better by EOY if the world economy can escape recession and the talking heads say that requires a stable, and higher, oil price.
Do you see any possibility that interim MM-121 results showing PFS could be released in 2017 around the estimated termination date of the original trial?
If so, I'm thinking that might bring "partner" back into the discussion for the breast cancer indication. Mgmt needs to do something to bring move it along before 2018.
Also, do you see a partner for MM-302 after results are announced in 2017, assuming results qualify it for accelerated approval? I'm thinking about how MACK can fill the coffers without resorting to more dilution or debt.
At this point, I'm just looking to swing trade large caps. I sold HD today at the open to pay my bills for the month. I'm watching TMUS, LOW, CCL (among others) for chart reversals.
Cramer was telling people to buy biotech at the end of December as a "defensive" sector to be in. I somehow think he knew what was coming. He also pumped specifically pumped RDUS and he rarely pumps small biotechs with no sales. I like his rational on the overall movements of the markets, but beware when he pumps a stock (remember SUNE).
If that 215 IBB support level is lost, the next major support level is all the way down to 168. At 168, IBB will almost erase all its gains against the S&P since it pulled away back in Nov 2011. I cannot see it going below 168.
It looks obvious IBB will hit 250 soon. GILD posts great earnings and still only up 1.25 after already selling off (PE 7). CELG guides 20% growth YOY until 2020 and is getting crushed.
My IBB target is the 215 support level, with an intraday low at 200. Perhaps that will be low enough to bring in some buyers, but the sector will likely be out of favor until after the election.
I may be misinterpreting the information, but looks like Onivyde may be added next week to the CMS Medicare Coverage database under Section D.
POLICIES WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE CMS AND WPS GHA WEBSITES ON 01/28/2016.
New FDA-approved drug therapy was added under D. Not Otherwise Classified Agents (NOC)
6. Irinotecan liposome (Onivyde) (J9999/C9399)
Approved in combination with fluorocuracil and leucovorin, for the treatment of patients with metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas after disease progression following gemcitabine-based therapy. Onivyde is not indicated as a single agent for the treatment of patients with metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (C25.0-C25.8). FDA approval date 10/22/2015.
Barring any news event, MACK follows IBB,XBI,^NBI. XBI tends to also follow IBB. IBB is pulled by trading in CELG, AMGN, ABBV, GILD, BIIB. This morning's rally in IBB was likely a good measure of sentiment because ABBV and GILD were both pulling the ETF down, yet it still finished positive. That might help explain why MACK was up 4% while IBB was up 1% today.
Looks like its at the same point QQQ was on a monthly chart Dec 1, 2000. QQQ caught a 10% rally at that point, before another leg down. That would translate to a rally back to test resistance at 291.
Amazing how fragile the sector really is. CELG misses by 3 cents, but still fell within recently updated guidance given at JPM, and the whole sector nose dives.
IMHO pay attention to the gap between IBB and MACK. It widened significantly on the way down and is now narrowing (IBB down 3%, MACK down 1% today).
Also, the IBB looks to be just about at the bottom before another rally begins, based on the two preceding legs down. Based on closing prices, first leg down was 74, next was 73, IBB now down 70 (343 to 273)... so are we going to start rallying next week? Earnings for BIIB (today), CELG & AMGN (Thursday), ABVE (Friday), GILD (Tuesday) are the ones to watch. BIIB blew away earnings, CELG pre-announced at JPM so not expecting much there, AMGN, ABVE, GILD could all beat and start the rally
Bloomberg reports short sellers are piling into bets that tranquility will return.
IMHO however, a Feb rally may birth an April selloff and yet a new low for IBB (250?).
Regarding the more current trend, using closing prices from peak to trough, the first leg down was 74, second leg down was 73, we've now down 70 from the 343 closing price peak. .. so the charts are saying we're within a couple dollars of a bottom. Perhaps one more day this week, then a Feb-Mar rally back over 300.
Looks like they are taking advantage of the lower price (and perhaps information on Onivyde adoption?). Nasdaq shows Blackrock, Inc reported 9/30 having only 3243 shares. They've increased that now to 8823227 shares.