Same thing happened with NBS. Almost identical percent drop in price as well. Both added to Russell 3000.
The COPD Afrezza trial is still on-going, due to be complete in July. They could petition the FDA to reconsider the label based on the results of this trial... right? From my DD about 9% of diabetics have COPD. There are numbers published if you search the net.
Yes, a haircut is coming, but only after predatory hedge funds run it up as high as they can take it. You don't seem to get it. The shorts are no longer in control. Most likely some of short players have gone long and now are going to attempt to bankrupt smaller players that get in too deep shorting volatile stocks.
If you're an individual trader, I hope you have deep pockets and prepared for this possibility. Hopefully you're hedged with calls so your loss is capped.
If you can hang in there, you should be able to minimize your losses. Otherwise, you're getting a margin call next week.
Stops are worthless when positioned for the outcome of a binary decision for a biotech stock. Your stop will be executed at the first AVAILABLE price, not the stop price. If this was a real rejection and was in the last fifteen minutes of trading, I believe the circuit breakers are off and you'd likely get a price at the very bottom after short sellers piled on. If you do get caught in one of these situations, IMHO there's usually a bounce at the bottom when shorts cover. That's your exit point because the price usually drifts down from there. Unfortunately, I've been there recently in VTUS - totally unexpected trial failure - even Baker Bros had bought a big stake in it.
What does look promising is that slide 21 confirms slide 19. That is the results in slide 19 are in large part due to MM-398.
Also slide 23 looks pretty exciting when thinking about how MM-398 might perform in a front-line trial.
Unfortunately, I was hoping for better long term survival in the MM-398 group over the control group. Looking at slide 18 in the presentation deck, that is not the case. It could have been that others were also looking for better relative long term survival in the MM-398 group.
Stanford Open Univ offering a free course in interpreting medical statistics. It starts today and is still open to enrollment if anyone is interested. Given I just retired, hopefully I'll find time to fit it in, although just two days into retirement, I have so many things going on, I'm already starting to feel overwhelmed.
Here's the link. https://class.stanford.edu/courses/Medicine/MedStats/Summer2014/about
Thanks for your outlook. Currently I own nearly 11K CEFL but I haven't reinvested the payouts. I also "invest" (loosely speaking) in biotechs and will be using some of that coupon to buy puts for NBS.
IMHO mgmt. knew MM-398 trial deadline would be pushed out when they authored the misleading press release on the results of the MM-121 trial (primarily the headline). They were then able to purchase at a nice discount. If that first press release had a headline similar to those subsequently published for other MM-121 trials, the price might not have been so low.
It looks like there's an effort by management to manipulate the stock price to provide them better entry points. That's one reason why I'm betting the long-term MM-398 results released later this week will be similar to the phase II trial.
Maybe I'm just being conspiratorial?
Because insiders didn't see the writing on the wall when SNY and Medtronics declared their joint diabetes venture a couple weeks ago.
SNY could be diverting funds to make a play for MNKD. MNKD already has a history with Medtronics. MNKD won't come cheap; neither a partnership nor a takeover.
Was a longer term investment in MM-121 a victim of choice for a much more near-term investment in MNKD? Plausible?
SNY backed out of their agreement w/MACK today. Could they be positioning themselves for a bid for MNKD or a partnership?
MACK's MM-121 didn't look so good in the TNB cancer studies, but it looked great in numerous others. So there's some question why SNY backed out. Could it be they want to divert their funds/efforts to Afrezza?
If the trial has ended in June, it would be a violation of SEC regs to sit on the results until November. I find it REALLY odd that this company published the date for full release of the data (Nov) before estimating the date that topline results would be released. I've been investing in biotechs for twenty years and have NEVER seen anything like this. I've sent them emails requesting clarification but get no response.
Options expire Saturday. There's going to be an effort this week to keep the price as low as possible, given the huge number of calls with a 7.50 strike. After this week the stock should have more room to move up. Until then, I would think any price under 7.50 is a buy. Just wish I was sitting at home in front of the computer to take advantage of it.
Top 10 Performers in Russell 2000
Ticker Holding 1 Mo Return %
GTIV Gentiva Health Services Inc 81.01
MACK Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Inc 76.99
I forgot to add that my one-to-one correlation could be very wrong depending on the amount of leverage used by some of the CEFs in the index. Actually, CEFL is IMHO a highly leveraged product when you look at the leverage used by some of the CEFs (which provides those fantastic payouts). I'm also betting we're in a long-term, low interest rate economy at least until the 2016 election.