Another major downward pressure is the Act to Facilitate the Personal Importation of Prescription Drugs From International Mail-Order Pharmacies enacted by Maine last year.
It is stirring the same controversy that was raised before Medicare Part D put it to rest the idea of states passing their own laws to permit importing drugs from foreign countries. That was one of the major motivations behind Medicare Part D, especially considering it was a major entitlement program enacted by a Republican administration.
Debate is ongoing in Congress now. PharmacyChecker is sending me weekly alerts to sign petitions and contact my Congressional reps.
Given now we know the real offering price was $2.14, I'm thinking that a 10% discount to the offering price could be the bottom... so around $1.92. If the biotech sell-off continues, perhaps $1.75 or so. I'll probably start buying again if it goes sub $1.90.
It wouldn't be the first time I've witnessed double-talk from a CEO, but I'm hoping this statement on the recently published blog is factual. It implies PreSERVE will not be terminated. To be otherwise would seriously damage ongoing future mgmt credibility. If no mention of PreSERVE in the blog, then I would think it might have failed... but that wasn't the case.
From the blog:
Of significance, later this year we will also be announcing data results for both our PreSERVE AMI Phase 2 clinical trial, and our collaborator, Dr. Jeffrey Bluestone’s Treg Phase 1 type 1 diabetes trial.
$2.40 was not the "real" offering price. You need to factor in the warrants. For every 3 shares sold at 2.40, one share was sold at 1.36. The stock is now trading at the right price based on the "real" price of the offering. Warrants are always bad news unless they have contain a covenant restricting the holder from shorting the stock... most don't and these don't appear to. So every time there's a big spike, the warrant holders short a bit with the warrants as their safety net... a riskless way to continually make $$$ over the five year lifetime of the warrants.
They sell puts and hedge with long calls. It's probably a pretty good strategy given the odds. The lower stock price means higher put price, lower call price, and less risk. So there's a good reason to constantly bash to keep the price down.
bing it: clinuity.what-is-the-probability-of-success-of-clinical-trials
Was the offer of the additional warrants in the prospectus? I re-read both press releases and no mention of it. I'm assuming it's in the original prospectus. I couldn't access it online. I'm surprised it wasn't in the press release. That would seem a bit shady.
I can't remember any time that I've seen a public offering announced that didn't reveal all the details in the press release.
At least they closed the offering today, but obviously the overallotment has not been filled, given the 30-day extension. My guess is the additional 1.2M shares are issued within 30 days. Looks like 2 was the bottom.
made the same mistake as I bought back too early... still have perhaps a bit more to buy... just curious what others feel the risk level is here... I sold before study results and am buying back in at a lower price... it would seem they have some questions to answer for the FDA, but would seem to be a pretty safe bet for approval... anyone else have any other ideas? I make good money on the first leg up from 1.30 to 2.50. Am hoping to see it go back over 3 after approval.
I guess you had a change of opinion from earlier this year:
Next up for me is MACK. 35K shares at 2.70 locked in a 5/7.50 collar. It's a real long shot (pancreatic cancer), but mgmt. started the ball rolling when they extended the trial deadline... that's when I pounced. Then mgmt. proceeded to buy BIG TIME on the open market (around 500k shares). I don't recommend buying unless you're hedged or prepared to lose most of it... but if MM-398 works, it will be the start of possibly multiple indications and if Sanofi takes MM-121 to phase III, Sanofi might just buy them out at $15 or $20/share. So you might want to at least get it on your radar if it isn't already.
NBS is another long shot that has mega potential. I own 10K shares at 6.45... and may buy more as D-Day approaches later this year if the options price spread starts looking more appealing.
Wishing I still have my full load (76K shares), but at least I still have 26K shares and banked 100K on the first 50K shares. I'm not rich and I was totally naked (unhedged).
I just hope 20K of my shares don't get called away this week at $9. Looks like they probably will, if not tomorrow.... but I can't complain. Will end up banking about $160K in profits from the past 15 months and still holding 10K warrants so MNKD has been good to me:)
Well... he may be alluding to a collaboration between Al, DF, and major insiders.
I was in CAWS. The company went bellyup - they shed all their debt (including to common stock holders)... the major creditor(s) bought up all the assets for debt and guess what ! .... they hired all the execs and set up a new company... almost immediately went public.. and the stock went to $45/share and they all made a killing after screwing the common stockholders.
However, if Afrezza goes bust, not sure what value is left except technosphere and I've always figured if it was worth so much, Al would have partnered it long ago for capital.
I agree. $20 was from the Kaqeels post, not mine. I'm thinking between 5 and 8 after adcom if we get the type 2 go ahead.
Does the conversion occur in one day? In other words, if there is a notification date of conversion and a different date at which converted shares are issued, which date is used as the VWAP target date? I'm assuming it would be the date of notification, in which case the date shares are issued becomes irrelevant.
Seems as if DF can convert risk free on Wednesday if ADCOM is positive at $5 or VWAP for the previous three trading days, whichever is higher. It's looking like they'll have their $5 price.
I didn't use a stop loss. I keep my own "mental" stop loss. If the price approaches it, I execute the sale manually. That's exactly what I did at 5.12. I'm pretty sure shorts were covering because my market order filled at the bid... and that was a 50K share market order.
No puts here. I looked at the puts and the price is too high. I figure I have two shots at goal. I do own a pile of MACK holding a 100% profit all collared at 5 - 7.50. I'm thinking about moving more money there where the put/call spread is much better.
And then there are those like myself (70K shares/10K warrants)... that got up to go to work on the west coast and was pleased to see the price up... only to get out of the shower and see it dropping toward my sell line of 5... so I blew off 50K shares - market order to lighten up... given I bought them at $2.50, still made 100% (but dang that was the most expensive shower ever - cost me $20K for that shower!) .
I'm still holding the rest through adcom... thinking type 2 looks good... and will be overjoyed if my shares get called away at 9 on 4/4.
IMHO People are freaked that the reviewer questioned the statistical significance of Arezza meeting one of its endpoints in the Type 1 study. The questions for consideration also mention the same point. Read the doc and you'll understand.
I still think things sounded pretty good for type 2. A read of each of the reviewer's comments is the least you might want to do if you don't want to go through the entire thing.