Stanford Open Univ offering a free course in interpreting medical statistics. It starts today and is still open to enrollment if anyone is interested. Given I just retired, hopefully I'll find time to fit it in, although just two days into retirement, I have so many things going on, I'm already starting to feel overwhelmed.
Here's the link. https://class.stanford.edu/courses/Medicine/MedStats/Summer2014/about
Thanks for your outlook. Currently I own nearly 11K CEFL but I haven't reinvested the payouts. I also "invest" (loosely speaking) in biotechs and will be using some of that coupon to buy puts for NBS.
IMHO mgmt. knew MM-398 trial deadline would be pushed out when they authored the misleading press release on the results of the MM-121 trial (primarily the headline). They were then able to purchase at a nice discount. If that first press release had a headline similar to those subsequently published for other MM-121 trials, the price might not have been so low.
It looks like there's an effort by management to manipulate the stock price to provide them better entry points. That's one reason why I'm betting the long-term MM-398 results released later this week will be similar to the phase II trial.
Maybe I'm just being conspiratorial?
Because insiders didn't see the writing on the wall when SNY and Medtronics declared their joint diabetes venture a couple weeks ago.
SNY could be diverting funds to make a play for MNKD. MNKD already has a history with Medtronics. MNKD won't come cheap; neither a partnership nor a takeover.
Was a longer term investment in MM-121 a victim of choice for a much more near-term investment in MNKD? Plausible?
SNY backed out of their agreement w/MACK today. Could they be positioning themselves for a bid for MNKD or a partnership?
MACK's MM-121 didn't look so good in the TNB cancer studies, but it looked great in numerous others. So there's some question why SNY backed out. Could it be they want to divert their funds/efforts to Afrezza?
If the trial has ended in June, it would be a violation of SEC regs to sit on the results until November. I find it REALLY odd that this company published the date for full release of the data (Nov) before estimating the date that topline results would be released. I've been investing in biotechs for twenty years and have NEVER seen anything like this. I've sent them emails requesting clarification but get no response.
Options expire Saturday. There's going to be an effort this week to keep the price as low as possible, given the huge number of calls with a 7.50 strike. After this week the stock should have more room to move up. Until then, I would think any price under 7.50 is a buy. Just wish I was sitting at home in front of the computer to take advantage of it.
Top 10 Performers in Russell 2000
Ticker Holding 1 Mo Return %
GTIV Gentiva Health Services Inc 81.01
MACK Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Inc 76.99
I forgot to add that my one-to-one correlation could be very wrong depending on the amount of leverage used by some of the CEFs in the index. Actually, CEFL is IMHO a highly leveraged product when you look at the leverage used by some of the CEFs (which provides those fantastic payouts). I'm also betting we're in a long-term, low interest rate economy at least until the 2016 election.
What is your strategy on owning this an a long-term income product? Can you shed any estimate on how a one or two hundred basis point increase in interest rates might affect CEFL's monthly payout?
As an income investor, I don't really care if the price never increases, so long as I'm getting more than a 10% yield. I would assume the payout drops almost one to one with a rise in interest rates (to fund the high borrowing cost). That still leaves plenty of room for a yield of 10%. Thoughts?
If long term survival matches phase II AND it can be correlated to the new diagnostic test (not sure if they can do this if they didn't store biopsies), then IMHO there's no doubt that some BP will want to launch a phase III trial for a first line indication. Using MM-398 could be assigned a high probability to take 20% - 25% of patients into remission or long term stable disease. Given the benefit, it would assure strong pricing power in the market and that $700M figure should be easily attainable.
IMHO the long term survival data for MM-398 published at the end of June will be huge if it matches the phase II trial.
Sorry, I meant through Sept. There's a big pile of calls at 7.50 for Sept, but oddly, missing from July. I'd like the opportunity to buy more shares by doing some average-cost buying here on a monthly basis for the next year.
IMHO there is and will be an attempt to keep the price around 7.50 all the way through July options expiration. Dec options seems to be estimating the price will rise to 9, but it's still really too early to give it a lot of credence.
The Favorite: MACK (for sure over the next 3 years - check out the ASCO presentation)
The Dark Horse: NBS (maybe parabolic if AMR-001 is successful - possible BAXTER buyout)