Well sell if you must, I guess. A short seller desperately needs your shares to cover. I think it's plain dumb, but whatever.
Oh, and count yourself lucky that you were prevented from selling early today.
The merger agreement says "no later than three days" after the completion of all requirements. Some of the requirements can be waived. It isn't done 'til the exchange removes the shares - mine are still listed (27,500 in various accounts).
Hmmm. The only reason I buy a low priced speculation like this is in hope of a 10+ bagger. This could end up a $40 stock if Frost continues to build it at the same pace. Or more if there is a split...
Very high (51 days) short ratio, against high institutional and insider ownership (over 80%). I sure wouldn't want to be short in this situation...
Increasing current assets over the past 5 years, debt to cap at the midpoint of their historic range (25%-40%). Anything else to contribute?
When a board of directors authorizes a buy back, it is no guarantee that it will be completely executed, if at all. Management requested authority to do it if deemed desirable.
And not just here... If we judge how the market will perform based on the general tone and content of these message boards, we're in for a crash.
Another (possibly bigger) reason from the 6/30 financials:
Licensing Agreements for Non-Marketed Products
We have also entered into licensing agreements under which we have licensed certain rights under our Queen et al. patents to make, use and sell certain products in development that have not yet reached commercialization. Certain of these development-stage products are currently in Phase 3 clinical trials. With respect to these agreements, we may receive payments based on certain development milestones and annual maintenance fees. We may also receive royalty payments if the licensed products receive marketing approval and are manufactured or generate sales before the expiration of our Queen et al. patents. For example, trastuzumab-DM1 (T-DM1) which is an experimental, antibody-drug conjugate that links Herceptin to a cytotoxic, or cell killing agent, DM1, is being developed by Genentech. This approach is designed to increase the already significant tumor fighting ability of Herceptin by coupling it with an additional cell killing agent that is efficiently and simultaneously delivered to the targeted cancer cells by the antibody. Two additional examples are the Eli Lilly and Company (Lilly) and Pfizer (in conjunction with Johnson & Johnson) licensed antibodies for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease that are currently in Phase 3 clinical trials. If Lilly’s antibody for Alzheimer’s disease is approved, we would also be entitled to receive a royalty based on a “know-how” license for technology provided in the design of this antibody. Unlike the royalty for the patent license, the 2% royalty payable for “know-how” runs for 12.5 years after the product’s initial commercialization.
One of the current Phase 3 Alzheimers drugs just failed to show improvement, but I think all the others are still in play. 2% for 12.5 years could be a lot of money...
Well, if they knew of such a reason, they will have disclosed it (I'm thinking that there is a pipline win). There sure is something going on...
Oh yeah... I didn't stick with that stock but I just checked the board out, and lots of the old names are there. I'll watch that one for sure and maybe share a few ideas. As for NCT, it looked good enough to put a toe in over the first part of Sept, but I never commit more than 1% - 1.5% to a single position. I like it so far :)
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Hey Bob - do I correctly remember you from the old FDG (Fording) board? I wasn't a big poster but lurked learning a lot from you and some of the other regs... Good to see you here - maybe this is a good one too (FDG was a big winner for me).
Well, all the analyst reports I see at TD Ameritrade are strong buy recommendations. S&P projects a 12 mo target of $53, and Credit Suisse says $57. I suspect that they need to see a quarter free of write downs (see quote below) to revise the earnings and PE multiple. Quoting Credit Suisse from 9/10/12:
"On the capital management front, AFL indicated it would repurchase $100mm of stock in
the fourth quarter this year, a marginal positive in our opinion given concerns about
managing capital levels between the US and Japan subsidiaries. In addition, the company
reiterated its 65B Yen profit repatriation in 2013 (down from 90B Yen originally), which we
think suggests no additional meaningful investment losses in 3Q12 (despite an
approximately $100mm loss disclosed in the 2Q12 Statutory Statements). It is also our
understanding that embedded within SMR capital is an excess reserve that accounts for
about 100 points of AFL’s 610% SMR ratio. This suggests that, should AFL repatriate
100% of profits Japanese FSA earnings, the SMR may actually improve from this excess
as it is released. This built in cushion in FSA reserves suggests that SMR could still be
built despite varying levels of profit repatriation just from the conservativeness embedded
in the calculation of capital."
Remember that the repositioning of the investment portfolio will take around three years. "De-risking" costs money, and will eat up profits over that time...The question is how much. Still, I agree that this is a very good entry point with a long (5+ year) horizon. If Europe blows up (literally or figuratively) everything is going to be a lot cheaper though, so I'm keeping a 6% trailing stop in place.
...If people had something to say other than unsupported wishful thinking, whether bullish or bearish. I don't care if I agree or not - just don't cheer or boo like it's a sports event.