One more thing.... These squeezes can take a long time to unwind. Check NFLX and TSLA.
If the short interest has increased to 15-16 million shares then I think we are in business. If the short interest is back down to 4-5 million; then it was just the S&P 500 index hedge.
KORS has never seen short interest at these levels. When the stock was in the $50's many longs thought it should be in the $70's. When it was in the $70's many longs thought it should be in the $90's. Well, it is in the $90's and ready to break par. The driving force behind a rising stock is obviously their earnings strength and growth rate. But, the shorts being forced to cover really helps accurate the price of the stock. The brand is a powerhouse, and they will continue to grow earnings for quite some time.
Of course short covering is a short term view. But, it has been the short sellers covering that have made this stock so strong thus far in 2014!
The story has not changed here. In fact, I would say it is still gaining strength.
Good luck to all...
I stand by the call of $3.15-$3.20 in 2014 and $4.75-$5 .25 in 2015! What will KORS be worth growing at 50% and earning $5?
I had not been to the mall since Christmas, and this weekend I visited Union Square, Stanford Shopping Center, and Valley Fair Malls. I saw very busy Michael Kors stores at all three location. It looks like business as usual for them. I did notice something different at Nordstrom's and Macy's.
Those two stores had elaborate footwear in prime locations in the stores from Michael Kors. I spoke with a few clerks, and they said "Kors footwear is selling extremely well." Duh, just look at the size and location we knew it was selling well. In the watch department the sales clerk told me KORS was the top selling watch, and even by a wider margin than when we last visited. The sales people at Bloomingdales-Stanford told me their apparel was selling well.
In their retail stores, the sales people know me pretty well, and they said the fragrance line is a really hot seller. People come into the store asking for Sexy, Sporty, Glam all the time. I saw a very crowded store at Valley Fair,mand they were selling a ton of handbags.
We will hear a lot of garbage from the media about the cold winter, and nobody is shopping. But, I have friends on Twitter who post photos of very busy Michael Kors stores in New York, Miami, Las Vegas, Los Angeles. Their business is very good. They added 98 stores from Q3 2013 to Q3 2014! The management team is really executing.
The number one criteria for making the stock rise is the short interest. I am curious to know what the short interest level is after the February EPS report? It tripled after the inclusion into the S&P 500! I believe that was a function of institutions creating a hedge because they were forced to by KORS as it was added to the index. I would bet they just covered, and stayed long. Therefore, we should see a reduction in share sold short. If not, and there is 12 million or more shares sold short, this stock could really skyrocket when the squeeze makes the rats cover.
I am staying long on this equity...
KORS is IBD #15 stock this week, and is 16% extended from a flat base. Will it become 20% extended this week? Valentine's sales appear to be strong if the Instagram and Twitter time lines are any indication...
Some poster asked about AWAY recently, and it is a leading stock that has formed a base, and looks ready to break out. AWAY reports earnings this week, and that could be a catalyst?
IBM: Valentine’s Day online shopping up 8%
FEBRUARY 14, 2014 | BY DAN BERTHIAUME
White Plains, N.Y. — Overall online shopping rose 8% during the week before Valentine's Day compared to the same period in 2013. Growth was particularly strong in the categories of gifts (up 20%), apparel (up 17%) and health and beauty (up 15%), and department stores (34%) compared to the previous year.
Key drivers of this year's Valentine’s Day shopping rush (Feb. 7 - Feb. 13) include mobile traffic accounting for 36.8% of all online traffic, up 39.6% compared to the same period in 2013. Mobile sales also remained strong at 17.2% of all online sales, up 42.9% from 2013. Smartphones drove 23.3% of all online traffic compared to tablets at 13.3%, making it the browsing device of choice.
When it comes to making the sale, tablets drove 11.4% of all online sales, twice that of smartphones, which accounted for 5.6%. Tablet users also averaged $135.26 per order, compared to smartphone users, who averaged $114.00 per order.
As a percentage of total online sales, iOS was more than four times higher than Android, driving 13.6% compared to 3.4% for Android. On average, iOS users spent $132.28 per order, compared to Android users who spent $110.54 per order. iOS also led as a component of overall online traffic with 24.6%, nearly twice that of Android users at 11.9%.
And looking at social influence, shoppers referred from Facebook averaged $125.24 per order, compared to Pinterest referrals, which drove $147.74 per order. However, Facebook referrals converted sales at 3.5 times the rate of Pinterest referrals, perhaps indicating stronger confidence in network recommendations.
KORS was up 4.5% this week with 14.5 million shares exchanged. The stock closed at $98.46! The lighter volume can be attributed to the holiday weekend, and is a paltry sum compared to the 48 million shares traded last week. KORS was up 18% last week with massive volume. The stock is up 22.5% in the past two weeks.
KORS received a price target of $106 from Cantor Fitzgerald as they initiated coverage on KORS this week!
I do not trade! I am not smart enought to outsmart the market. That is a fool's errand. I buy quality stocks that are growing, and undervalued. KORS meets all criteria. I purchased KORS at $52, $55, $57, $60, $66 & $75! I bought 200 shares each time as to "scale into" the investment. I will not sell until the story changes!
I bought 2 lots of NFLX average price of $161 and sold 200 shares at $330 as it was becoming too large of a percentage of the portfolio. Recently, I bought 200 shares of NVO at $36 and plan to add to that investment. NVO is not a growth stock like KORS NFLX...but it is a long term investment on global diabetes.
You have been on this board for a long time, and should have made some decent profits with KORS if you did not buy and sell all the time...
The VFC firm announced weaker than expected earnings, and that is weighing on the retailers today. The maker of North Face products missed by two cents and guided lower. The stock is getting a nice haircut today.
General opinion from retail analysts state that Under Armour is taking market share from VFC.
I agree with you! Typically, KORS is good to both long and shorts and pulls back hard after an earnings jump. This time may be different as the shorts piled in prior to the earnings report? Nobody knows for sure...
I was expecting a pullback at $98, and that might not happen?
Either way....good luck to you!
KORS raised guidance from $2.81 to $3.09 and will crush the $3.09 in May. They opened 98 retail stores between Q3 2013 and Q3 2014! Same store sales are growing at 28% and new stores are performing even better. I guarantee they will have another great quarter.
You listen to the media too much about the weather, slow mall traffic, discounts...blah, blah, blah...
Listen to the last four conference calls from KORS!
I like the way you think...If not today, then soon...this stock could trade to $120 by May earnings?
We have another beat and raise quarter ahead. KORS is expected to earn $3.82 in fiscal 2015! I am sure they will raise to $4 at the very least...
I agree! AIG is not a company I would invest with. They have a nice turnaround story. But, the stock is just not my style...
I have my own 8 MONTH hold rule... I sense a "valuation" call or some other chicanery on the horizon...Hold onto your shares...
So what's it mean to "win" Fashion Week?
One way to answer that could be social media buzz. And by that standard at least, Michael Kors is blowing away the competition this week.
Startup social media analytics firm Shareablee Inc. has been tracking the public's follow-on activity about fashion brands on Instagram, Facebook and Twitter since the shows opened Feb. 6. Today, they shared with me some figures so far.
Michael Kors (who recently became fashion's newest billionaire) was responsible for nearly one-third of all "interactions" on those three platforms, according to the company.
The designer generated about 1.1 million likes, shares and comments on content generated by the brand itself, dwarfing runner-up Zac Posen (284,988) and third-place Ralph Lauren (220,728). Rachel Zoe (191,025) and Diane Von Furstenberg (150,845) rounded out the top five.
Some other interesting nuggets: Nearly 7 out of 10 total actions about Fashion Week came on photo-based Instagram, with 30 percent coming on Facebook. Text-heavy Twitter apparently doesn't work as well, generating only 2 percent of the total actions.
Shareablee specializes in tracking user reactions to brand-generated content, not general overall activity.
Ben Fischer covers local and regional business in greater New York City.
Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio Gives good reason to be long KORS...
Consumer & Retail — Footwear and Apparel
REITERATE BUY, NEW $119 PT
Once again, KORS trounced our and Street expectations with impressive
execution across the entirety of its business, posting comps/EPS of
27.8%/$1.11 vs. our 18%/84c estimate (consensus was 20%/86c).
Surprisingly, the significant comp upside did not come at the expense of
gross margin as Q3 promotional levels were similar year/year. Clearly,
KORS is taking share from its direct competitor in COH, but more
importantly it is also taking share from luxury brands (e.g. Gucci and
LV) as the accessibility of its price points is creating a swell of demand
for the brand globally. We expect continued share gain benefits to
materialize as 1) brand awareness grows in Europe/Japan; 2) categories
gain further traction (e.g. accessories, men’s/women’s, footwear, and
fragrance); and 3) 70% larger retail store openings plus incremental
shop in shops in NA persist through 2015. Given 3 new DC openings
planned over the next 24 months, we believe KORS’ global growth
opportunity is robust and view it as a core growth holding; thus we
reiterate our BUY.
The astounding strength in Europe (73% comps) is having an
increasingly positive impact on gross margins; meanwhile KORS has
yet to see an increase in markdown allowances in wholesale
suggesting further gross margin expansion opportunities in 2015,
particularly as both retail and product mix trend favorably (we are
estimating a conservative 30bp improvement).
Our $119 target is a blend of 30x 2015E EPS/17x EBITDA/DCF