I have held some stocks for 35 years (IBM, KO, MCD). I do not know if KORS will be one of those stocks (odds are against it)? I do know that KORS growth story is still strong, and they have not peaked as they have solid growth years are ahead of them. Of course, they will not grow at triple digits or even 60% again. But, they have a a good shot at growing at a 25% clip over the next five years. A growth story like that will outperform the indexes.
I have held through many corrections, and do not day trade or sell because a stock I own sells off a little bit. Stocks do go up and down. I gave my criteria for selling KORS and they easily beat the criteria. The nit-picking over operational margins is just that.
I was disappointed they did not raise guidance to $4. But, each quarter is different. Look at Q2 2014 when they only beat the EPS by three cents. Was that a "red flag?" Obviously not since the stock is $20 higher since that November reporting date.
I believe KORS set itself up for some huge blowout numbers next quarter and for the entire 2015 year.
Good luck to all...
That piece was written by Leigh Drogen who has been a big KORS bull until now.
Folks are definitely trying to poke holes in the KORS growth story, and trying pretty darn hard too.
KORS is trading right at its 10 week line which is just a hair above $92. It will be interesting to see if it gets a bounce there or if it pierces that technical level. Longer term this stock is a gem. But, there is going to be some turbulence in the shorter term.
Historically, KORS has always been a screaming buy when trading below the 10 week line. We will see if anything is different this time?
If you just take a look at a weekly chart it will tell you the entire story; lower left to upper right. Yes, there is way too much manipulation going on with this stock. I get nervous any time the TV pundits and media bring attention to this stock as it usually drives the stock down. KORS trades down on downgrades, and down on upgrades.
But, the stock rallies when you least expect it. I believe it is a core holding in any growth portfolio. KORS grew at 66% last year and has a 22 forward earnings multiple. Yeah, that is a lack of respect!
An investor must be patient as Wall Street is not going to let the retail investor make easy money.
The analysts are positive and the media is negative. I sense the work of a bear raid in effect.
This could be damaging to the stock short term?
There is way too much manipulation going on here, and it does not feel right to me. The stock is trading like they missed earnings or guided lower.
Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy reiterated an Overweight rating and bumped her price target on Michael Kors (NYSE: KORS) to $115.00 (from $114.00) following 'stellar' Q4 results.
Murphy "We would add to positions of KORS following the company's Q4 report in which sales and EPS were meaningfully above expectations. We are pleased by the global growth trajectory the company is undertaking as they expand categories and roll-out global distribution. We remain confident that sales and earnings growth can at least remain 20%-25% for the foreseeable future. For FY15, we are modeled at 26% and 22% top-and bottom-line growth, respectively. While investment in FY15 is contributing to op margin contraction, we continue to believe there is upside to numbers driven by market share gains in N.A. and accelerating trends in Europe. Over time, as the retail segment scales, we expect op margins to re-accelerate."
The firm raised FY 2015 EPS from $3.85 to $3.92 and FY 2016 EPS from $4.75 to $4.80.
Shares of Michael Kors closed at $97.01 yesterday.
Thursday, Deutsche Bank analyst Dave Weiner reiterated a Buy rating on Michael Kors (NYSE: KORS), and raised the price target from $105.00 to $110.00. In the report, Deutsche Bank noted, "While there are many moving parts to this increasingly complex global company, the bottom line we believe is that Kors once again delivered on both results & guidance. Though FY15 plan came in at least in-line with expectation, even so, we believe mgmt. is being conservative. Primarily, we note that plan calls for GM normalization, but mgmt. made it clear that hasn't happened yet (and we don't think that back-half of 1Q compares get more difficult). "Also, it's our view that Kors will stick to a tight exp. budget, so if revs. outpace, those will flow through to EPS. As a reminder, the avg. beat over the past four qtrs. has been $0.15 and we see a nice set-up from here as well. Maintain Buy." Michael Kors closed on Wednesday at $97.01
Of course they did! That was an absolutely stellar quarter they just reported.
Goldman Sachs is all over it at $134...
The August EPS report is going to be a bigger blowout than yesterday as there will not be the drag on operating margins.
Sales have picked up in April and May...
A lot of newbies jumped into this stock recently hoping for a beat, and cashing out quickly. They got their beat all right. A beating from the whipsaw action this morning. That is too bad because they picked the right stock, but did not have the knowledge or conviction. "Flush " is a good term...
I don't think any of the blowhards on TV listen or pay attention to the conference calls. This is important:
John Idol - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Let me just address one thing in the operating margins in retail. Actually, our gross margins in retail were very similar on a year-on-year basis. So that wasn’t where what you are seeing in some of those operating margin declines is actually where we are taking rents of stores early, retail locations that we might not have opened. So, you have something like SoHo sitting without any sales and the rents starting. So, there are some things inside of that. So, we really didn’t see any more promotional activities in our business. So, it wasn’t that we had pressure on our retail business from a sales or markdown strategies. We saw the same kind of sell-throughs in wholesale that we did in retail. And also Europe, again, as we are taking buildings in advance and some of the other startup costs that are going along with the expansion in Europe, that’s really what’s impacting more of the operating on retail. And I think you will see that more normalize out over the next couple of quarters, especially as we get some of these stores opened.
That being said, we are also looking at some additional fairly large flagships in Europe, which will go through a similar situations with us. And we told you in past calls, this is very difficult for us to kind of time those things. Rolling out in malls is relatively simple, not simple, but it’s easier for us to predict. And we also have shorter construction periods. When you get into buildings, especially whether it’s here in North America, the building that we are building in SoHo, we are probably six months late due to construction issues and things. When you get into these buildings, there is a lot more going on than you anticipate. So, there will be some of that fluctua
tion and we will hopefully be a little bit more clear on the next conference call.
Michael Kors products have been selling at TJ Maxx for more than 10 years.
Same store sales and brand awareness are more of an indicator of growth than where the product is selling.
They pimp Under Armour and bash KORS. UA CEO Kevin Plank is on CNBC all the time, and John Idol refuses to be interviewed by that clown.
UA has twice the multiple and HALF THE GROWTH RATE as KORS.... But, KORS is "expensive" and Under Armour is a buy... You can't make this stuff up...nobody would believe it, and there is Cramer with all his minions buying his books. America is a great country...
When KORS press release showed $.78 in EPS I thought KORS would make new highs for sure. They followed that with a whopping $917 in revenue blowing away the $816 estimate. They top and bottom line beats were ferocious, and new highs would be here soon.
Then the bear raid propaganda machine cranked up on all cylinders and "margins" were now the focus. Herb Greenberg was one stooge who fueled the fear of weak longs as he cited discounting...errr...margins...anything he could think of to dismiss KORS stellar report. Better sell now the growth story is over! KORS has peaked! Stern Agee got into the act with their brutal call about "maturity."
I have been at this game way too long to think that KORS trading action today was the work of anything but some rogue bears who are desperately trying to knock KORS down. This stock was not trading on its fundamentals at all.
But, the stock reversed nicely! After trading down to $91.80 (great buy price) the stock reversed and finished near a high for the day. This is a bullish sign for KORS! I would not be surprised to see some upgrades and raised price targets in the coming weeks from Morgan Stanley and Piper Jaffray.
KORS grew 66% last year and has a multiple of 30! I would bet that $.78 that was posted this morning will start to resonate with growth investors and they will be buying soon enough. I bet we see new highs soon.
The August EPS report is a slam dunk...
John Idol clearly explained they rented buildings that are not producing sales. That happens when you are opening stores at breakneck speed. He specifically cited a 21,000 square foot building in the most expensive region in the country (SOHO) that was being paid on and not producing sales…YET! That is why I say it is difficult to predict quarter to quarter and much easier from year to year. However, this will be revenue to pick up in future quarters. Some of the jive turkey pundits trying to spread fear mentioned KORS discounting. I go shopping quite often and see very little discounting from KORS.
My sense is that there are some bears who are trapped under water who are putting on a huge push to knock the stock down, and that can be dangerous. In the ned, the fundamentals will rule, and KORS has excellent fundamentals.
Did anyone even mention the 26% same store sales? Did they notice the blowout numbers in both EPS and revenue (revenue number was crushing)? The raised guidance in both EPS and revenue?
I suspect some upgrades in the coming days/weeks...
The bear argument against Michael Kors is operating margins were down?
They gloss over all the positive stuff and select one small detail (that was explained by John Idol in the conference call) and run their mouths off on TV and electronic media like they know something? The bears have no case here as KORS blew away another quarter. They sandbagged future quarter which they will crush easily.
The 26% same store sale is the envy of all retailers. KORS management has discussed a normalization for a long time, and it is not happening.
Growth investors seek stocks that beat and raise quarter after quarter and KORS is doing that. KORS has shown domination in North America and will continue to open new stores and shop in shops here. In Europe, they are just crushing with with huge margins and same store sales.Their brand awareness spiked 10% in one year in Europe. Remember, Europeans spend more money on fashion than North America and this will be a cash cow for KORS going forward. My guess is this one sees new highs in the coming weeks. The stock was up 1.3% with 11 million shares exchanged.
The only concern I have about KORS is how badly will they crush the August EPS report?
Great work! You were paying attention on the conference call.
This price action has nothing to do with KORS fundamentals. It is more technical, and hijinx in nature.. The stock will work through some of this chicanery...
I am not worried at all. That was a great quarter, and conference call.
KORS will continue to beat and raise.
TSLA had a great quarter as well and dropped from $200 to $178 on good earnings. Yesterday it was back near $210….
The $917 million in revenues was a big surprise to me. The estimates called for $816 million in revenue. This was their weakest quarter, and sales have picked up in April and May. The cost of growing the business is part of any growth story.
I am surprised by the muted reaction to this quarter's performance. While other retailers whine about the cold winter, slow mall traffic, and discounts; KORS keeps crushing!
I expect some upgrades in the coming days/weeks. Many of the analysts on the call were congratulating KORS management team on the great quarter. It is pretty rare to see such a huge beat and raise quarter with 26% dames tore sales get a muted reaction...