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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

quailrunrd 3976 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2015 2:54 AM Member since: Mar 30, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Today certainly feels like a capitulation!

    by quailrunrd Jul 23, 2015 4:08 PM
    quailrunrd quailrunrd Jul 24, 2015 2:54 AM Flag

    Cgreens...Mainman! To be a contrarian in the most unloved sector as it reaches for a bottom is supposed to be where a wise investor places his bets....erh...I mean money. We have witnessed the greatest debasement of fiat currencies in history, ie, QE's, 0% interest rates for 7 years, and accelerated debt accumulation. And yet, against this backdrop, PM's flounder lower. It just doesn't make sense.

    The Fed's henchmen promise to raise interest rates to their natural level by 2017 which is about 3.75% (Fed funds rate). And the public accepts this garbage. If interest rates rise by 3% the carrying costs on our national debt will quickly rise by an additional $550 billion annually. Add the demographic tsunami now hitting our shores (10,000 citizens attaining the age of 65 per day) and one has to wonder where all the magic money will come from to support this system. Not going to happen! Default or printing masses of fiat are the only alternatives. Gold and silver should be thriving in this environment. But apparently we are arriving a little too early and we will have to wait at the doorstep for who knows how long for the party to start.

    Good luck to both of you. As Cgreens states, our shares have sunk so low, why sell them now? Capitulations are inflection points whereby the last holdouts give up and sell their shares and nobody but buyers are left in the game. I'm hoping we are at, or at least close, to that point.

  • Reply to

    Today certainly feels like a capitulation!

    by quailrunrd Jul 23, 2015 4:08 PM
    quailrunrd quailrunrd Jul 23, 2015 9:01 PM Flag

    Today, EXK dropped 8% to hit $1.29, a level we have not seen since Feb, 09. Silver price did not decline all that much today. An 8% drop after dropping so much in the last month seemed a bit extreme. Capitulation? I don't know.

    Main stream media hypes the notion that silver prices could fall below $9. That is way below the cost of production. But maybe MSM will frighten some of us rabbits out of our PM holdings. I'd hate to be one of those who bought high only to sell at an extreme low and then watch a rebound. It would be nice if this were a capitulation and we could start to see a revival in this sector. Nobody will ever convince me that the U.S. dollar has a long life expectancy. But can these miners survive the current turbulence?

    I'm not a I simply do not know.

  • It's been a long ride down. I've been a stalwart holder of EXK and AG shares. But I am actually considering....capitulating. But not on a day like today when these 2 silver miners were totally "oversold"! I'd have to guess there will be some sort of bounce in the next day or two. The worry is that the physical PM futures markets will unload more of their wrath to the downside dragging miners down as well. Time will tell.

    But I won't part with my physical.

    Yeah...where is Newscentral?

  • Reply to

    Whatever happened to YDM?

    by quailrunrd Jun 22, 2015 2:55 PM
    quailrunrd quailrunrd Jun 25, 2015 1:25 AM Flag

    He was a class act...for sure!

  • Has "Yourdeadmeat" posted anything recently? His messages on this message board in the past were extremely well written, loaded with interesting analogies, and covered the PM arena as well as anyone.

  • Reply to

    What the heck happened to silver prices?

    by shiftsuper175607 Jan 29, 2015 9:49 AM
    quailrunrd quailrunrd Jan 29, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    Yellen will not hike rates and QE is all but written into the books. Exports represent 13% of U.S. GDP and our exports are fast becoming prohibitively expensive to the rest of the world. Consequently the currency wars are in full bloom. The ECB is diluting it's currency with QE. Canada, the Danes, the Aussies and many others are cutting interest rates. And now we are supposed to take the U.S. Fed's verbalized day dreaming into account that they will actually raise rates this year?

    Some argue the Fed needs to raise rates to save face in light of their promising to commence raising rates going back to Bernanke's era. Others point out that interest rates have not been raised in 8 years....a record! And finally, many mainstream pundits point out that 0% interest rates in today's supposedly much improved economic environment are simply not justified. Historically, these pundits are correct. But that will not matter.

    If interest rates are raised by even a pathetic 1/4% with verbiage of further rate increases, the US dollar would surge well above 100 on worldwide currency index, U.S. exports would be decimated, and jobs would be lost. Not going to happen. The U.S. will join the fray and the currency war will gather momentum.

    Eventually, gold and silver will rise dramatically against all paper currencies. And that is a fact. EXK is not making a profit with silver below $18. Hopefully, this company can endure until the arrival of higher silver prices.

  • quailrunrd by quailrunrd Dec 20, 2014 2:14 AM Flag

    Swiss Central Bank, Germany, and several others are now announcing negative interest rates for plowing your hard earned bucks into their banks. You must pay money to have the bank hold it for you...even as they have the right to use your funds. INSANITY.

    Silver and gold still plumb the lower depths of the last 3 years. Can that continue? EXK and other miners stay glued to their CME monitors wondering when the insanity will end. Is there manipulation of PM prices? Is there any gold left in U.S. Central Bank vaults? Time will tell. But since all the major central banks espouse the doctrine that printing money is the only viable solution to current economic malaise, then grabbing some precious metals that have held their value for the last 5000 years is not a bad way to go.

    Undoubtedly, EXK needs higher silver prices to see a bounce in share prices. You never know. When confidence breaks in paper currencies and digital credits, then EXK will enjoy a ride to much higher heights. When will that happen? I'm not holding my breath....but I'm not selling my shares at these ridiculous low prices. Today's closing price at $2.23 is a total joke. Just wait until the EM's start to default on their sovereign debt and major banks of the developed nations get crushed holding the high yield instruments of those EM nations.

    Tick tock. The clock never stops. Free money flowing from the printing presses of the U.S., Japan, Euroland, the Swiss Central Bank, et al...will eventually see their day in infamy. Nothing is free. Gold and silver have never been free. They will soon get their day of recognition. And so will EXK.

  • Reply to

    Am I tenacious or just plain stupid?

    by quailrunrd Nov 10, 2014 9:00 PM
    quailrunrd quailrunrd Nov 11, 2014 10:49 PM Flag

    JWTechy. Great post. Thanks

  • I refuse to let go of my core holdings of EXK. And today we see 5 year EXK lows. In 2011 EXK traded above $12. But now, silver price fails to catch a bid. Monetary reality has evaporated into a Game of Thrones. Print it...and "they" will enjoy it! When money is free, who can complain? And government controllers (on their thrones) pay for their overspending with a gift from the printing press. Hallelujah...we've finally reached nirvana.

    So I listen to the stalwart PM pundits who advise not to give away one's shares at these low firesale prices only to watch them rise again in someone else's hands. Who knows where prices will land before the furtive turnaround event occurs.... if it ever does. When reality regains its footing, the turnaround will arrive. IMHO.


  • Reply to

    Hey News!

    by quailrunrd Nov 4, 2014 2:18 AM
    quailrunrd quailrunrd Nov 6, 2014 12:51 AM Flag

    Cgreens...I feel your pain. You and I are riding in the same lifeboat. I also have a lot invested in EXK, silver and gold. Nothing makes sense anymore. You and I are right....the rest of the world is wrong. But can we prevail????

  • Reply to

    Hey News!

    by quailrunrd Nov 4, 2014 2:18 AM
    quailrunrd quailrunrd Nov 5, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    "Also we need to hear from EXK including thoughts about their business plan - future development."

    I suspect management's crystal ball regarding the direction of silver prices is no better than anyone else's. Perhaps you're suggesting that management reveal what their plans are if market prices for silver fall below the cost of production for EXK. I'm not sure what that price point is. But shuttering mines is costly and operating at a loss doesn't make sense. Yes, it would be interesting to hear how EXK plans to deal with the draconian drop in silver prices. Can they keep operating at these low prices?

    Ted Embry's article on KWN website points outs many reasons why the price of silver is unjustifiably low and also how this metal is now poised to rise like a rocket. His arguments make sense. But then, Embry has been a cheerleader for PM's during the entire time frame since the 2011 high water mark. Regardless, many economists who follow the metals as well as the currencies seem to be levitating to the idea that fiats have been overabused (especially the yen and dollar) and the stage has been set for a major economic fall....very soon. I agree with those in this camp!

  • quailrunrd by quailrunrd Nov 4, 2014 2:18 AM Flag

    Sudden moves can be catastrophic in derivative infested financial world. The U.S. dollar has moved up more than 10% in the last 60 days. When do FX traders become alarmed on movements greater than a 3 sigma event such as when the U.S. dollar falls more than 10% in less than 5 trading days. Anything can happen in today's unpredictable world. If the dollar took a sudden downward trip, precious metals would probably jump start their engines.

    I, for one, can't believe how quickly the dollar has risen. Yeah,,,Japan has crucified their currency. But a fast rising U.S. dollar will be perceived by the government wonks as bad for exports as well as the U.S. economy. Consequently, don't you think levers will be pulled to lower the value of the dollar? But if it falls too fast, won't there be $billions of wrong way bets by investment banks with their currency swaps/hedges which might exaggerate the fall of the dollar?

    We could see some interesting times ahead. PM's may have seen their bottoms. Time will tell.

  • ....I've been puking my guts out! LOL

    Silver and gold are the most maligned assets of the moment. Printed paper carries so much more genuine value. So I ask. How long can this last?

    One would think EXK could make more money investing in paper silver futures rather than expending all that energy pulling silver out of the ground. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Rotten quarter

    by bladerobo Oct 21, 2014 1:26 PM
    quailrunrd quailrunrd Oct 21, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    Yeah, Blade. Depressing quarter. And, silver will probably keep up with inflation. It also will probably keep up with hyper-inflation, unlike other asset classes. But will we see hyper-inflation anytime soon....if ever? I suspect that incredible growth in fiat printing will soon give us an answer. GLTU

  • Reply to

    Look at the positive side

    by quailrunrd Jul 24, 2014 6:27 PM
    quailrunrd quailrunrd Oct 17, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    Yesterday, Bullard makes an announcement that the current market environment could justify further QE (purchases of treasury and GSE bonds). Today, the stock market rejoices anticipating that tapering movement by the Fed Reserve will cease and perhaps reverse. DJA up big time but why in the world does the U.S. dollar climb on the world currency index? PM's suffer today with rising dollar and so many mainstream pundits are proclaiming the declines in the markets are now over....and good times are ahead.

    And today EXK and the rest of the miners suffer. What was interesting to me was First Majestics (quarterly) public announcement yesterday that they withheld selling 1 million ounces of silver during the most recent quarter due to low silver prices which are under their cost of production. In other words, today's silver price do not justify many companies efforts to mine it is not profitable. So how much lower can the silver price go? I can't say for sure but certainly not much lower!

    And if any increase is announced in QE by the Fed at their next meeting, I would not be abandoning any PM investments. The world will come to realize that the U.S. cannot pay off it's debts nor stay on an even keel in the marketplace without huge injections of free money. And there is no such thing as a free lunch.

  • Mind boggling! Can it got below $17/oz? Very possibly but silver prices would then be entering some sort of twilight zone.

    Contrarians....dig deep for that dry powder.

    Mainstream muppets...sell into the weakness and give up your PM investments to those sleazy banker manipulators. Buyers at today's low prices will prosper. Sellers will soon mourn their selling decisions.

    Oil prices are plummeting which will kill the fracking industry where the breakeven point is about $85/barrrel which is now history. And 30 year treasuries yield under 3% which is beyond absurd. So many black swans. So little time.

    Hang tight. Don't drink the kool aid. And understand that fiat currencies are destined to be thrown into the trash bin of history. GLTA

  • Reply to


    by dj28rd Sep 26, 2014 2:35 PM
    quailrunrd quailrunrd Sep 26, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    Rapidly rising dollar should soon be seen as a threat to GDP as the cost of our exports will be less affordable to our trading partners. Janet Yellen and company must be sweating bullets. Currency wars are in progress!

  • Last week on tuesday EXK closed at $531. Right now, EXK trades at $4.43. Down 16.57% in just one week. And what was the earth shattering news for miners to collapse? Oh yeah. The yen is crashing and the dollar is gaining strength. Nothing like fiat currency "printing" at the opposite sides of the earth to get physical metal prices moving down.

    It's a new world where nothing is valued by free markets as central banks running our banking cartels can figure it all out for us. And so we precious metals investors just sit and take the pain....for now. GLTA

  • quailrunrd quailrunrd Sep 19, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    "I am a precious metals bull, but not a perma-bull, as such a position does not allow the flexibility a trader needs in order to generate profits.........
    We are now of the opinion that gold will trade lower and re-test the $1180/oz level, silver; if it breaks below $18.00/oz, then it would experience a severe drop to the $15.00/oz level and the miners as represented by the Gold Bugs Index, the HUI, will test the low of 190 that it made in December 2014 and possibly go on to test the 150 level formed in 2008.
    The current environment favors the bears so a short trade would be better than a long trade" - Bob Kirtley

    But I disagree. Just bought another batch of EXK at $4.78. But you never know. I'm looking for a bounce back from these lows.

  • Silver, suppressed as it is today, needs to rise from it's current ashes and regain some footing. Silver cannot be held down below it's cost of discovery/production. And right now, silver prices will not justify any new miner's attempts to make a profit starting a silver mine. The cost of new production will not be rewarded with any kind of profit at today's spot silver price. So....we are at a floor in silver prices.

    But when will silver prices start rising? That is the "silver" question. Electronics, solar panels, jewelry, and minted coins. The appetite for silver is not on the wane. Silver will rise from today's ashes. And EXK represents an excellent supplier of this much needed metal. So I , for one, will wait and accumulate EXK at these fire sale prices. Any contrarian will tell at the lows when everyone else despises your investment choice. Silver's role in this world is not finished. Silver is currently priced extremely low, but it is not finished.

    As Karl Marx wrote in "Das Capital": "Although gold and silver are not by nature money, money is by nature gold and silver."

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