The best time to buy a quality stock like Disney is a morning like this (4/17/15) when it seems everything is selling and for no "good" reason. Great place to be in or back in as the stock will rise into Avengers age of Ultron and Disney's May earnings announcement.
If you want more shares of Disney the best idea is to get in now on any pull back of the stock. A buy below 106 is a good opportunity and at 105 I suggest backing up the truck and load up. After the Avengers is released in North America and future earnings announcements it looks like 116 could be a reality very soon. If Avengers Age of Ultron opens bigger than expected money will flow into the stock and anticipation of Star Wars will be higher than ever. (not to mention a new theme park early next year). Expectations of future earnings similar to NetFlix will propel the shares 10% from here quickly. Next stop 116+.
Yes, I agree 90% is a very high occupancy rate. Every room occupied from this point is pure profit to bottom line. Since labor is the biggest cost, little labor has to be added when occupancy rises. It does give Disney more revenue with less discounting. With gas prices down substantially more cash in hand will drive visits to Disney theme parks and more per guest spending. All of this firms up bottom line but by how much is the question.
My guess is the spring and summer are going to be very busy for Disney and not baked into the current earnings. Let's hope Bob Iger gives positive guidance.
Disney has a very strong cash flow from the hotel and DVC properties. The DVC unit has had very strong months selling timeshare units. Between the Disney branded hotels and time share units there is well over 30,000 room units. When the resorts are busy they have huge cash flow and profits and when things are off the time share units churn out cash if used or not. I also see an increased cash flow from theme park ticket sales since they went to more electronic use. Less of the paper tickets being resold on the gray market. It just adds to more control of profits.
Expecting a conservative opening weekend of about 225 Million at the domestic box office. This is a low estimate from what the buzz is currently. The last Avengers was over 1.5 Billion in total box office. Last year estimates for Age of Ultron were an over the top 2 Billion total take. Hold your breath to see if this is a catalyst going into the earnings release for May and a boost in the underlying stock price. The base is very stable here and a pile of Disney cash for continuing the stock buy back at each dip. The charts are showing a consolidation here which should continue for a couple of weeks. Blue sky territory after this and anticipation moving toward Star Wars. (more about Star Wars in the near future)