Just to be very clear, I did say that I believe that INCY has a great future, so the stock should also continue to do well. And as I mentioned, I may increase my holdings again after the PV results are published along with the PanCa subgroup analysis, sometime in March/April. The overal market, biotech valuations in general, seasonality and other personal portfolio factors led me to make my decision, after Friedman's retirement. I am a huge fan of Friedman, his scientific expertise in leading and shepherding so many successful molecules, and not as great a fan of non- science based CEO's at the helm of a biotech. I think the new CEO has a great track record but I need to listen to him on some CC's and analyst presenatation etc. and also feel confident that the Jim Daly or Richard Levy will not be looking for other opportunities in the industry, given their relationship with Friedman, vs. a new one with a European, who has not been a CEO of US company, managing what I think is a predominantly an American team and adjusting to living and working in the USA. So, I sort of staying more on the sidelines for sometime, if you will. By the way, this stock is more than 95% owned by institutions with a very long- term time horizon, so what any of us little people do, should have near zero impact on the price or performance of INCY stock. It's a great company and I expect it will continue to do great! Good luck to all again, and all the best!
I decided to scale down to 10% of my holdings at the open today, having slowly scaled back in the past couple of weeks, as both the broad market and INCY valuation reached levels that I thought were fair value. I may still come back and add to my position after earnings, but I will not be tracking INCY that closely any more. I think INCY has a grea future, but I was sorry to see Friedman, a true physician and fundamental research and science guy leave! I will check in March/April when the PV results are out and the PanCa subgroup analysis is revealed. Good luck to those I have communicated with in the past and all the very best!
Ok , Splash! Good Luck to you GERN shareholders. Let us know when the FDA agrees to a registrational trial that will lead to approval. Until that time we will watch. I do read your board daily just for the entertainment. Never have and never will post there. But it is fun! Cheers!
So sorry, in previous post it should read peak sales for RUXO in PV of just under $375 Million in 2019...,
So, that's like another 25% from here! And INCY is now in their top sector pick! I find it bizarre that most of these guys, except Wei of Jefferies had their targets, earlier this year, in the mid to upper $20's.
Jacosa, being out of country and just on an IPad, I missed this from earlier today! Salveen Richter raised INCY price target from $65 to $ 79. Interesting that now these guys have the highest PT on the street, and they have only assigned a $1.5 Billion for all other drugs in the pipeline besides RUXO. I am sure you know more about this,I since you probably have a feed of some of these street analyst reports. I was surprised by the DCF/NPV analysis leading to this PT, because the peak sales assumption for Ruxo in 2019 was assumed to be a bit less than $375 Million. Any info or thoughts?
Ok. FYI, in that case " saying "don't be a johnie (sic) come lately either" needed to be wordsmithed to convey that . Anyway, good luck with your GERN investment!
I read your post again....maybe what you had in your head....but your post is abundantly clear , read and re- read it again and again. If that is what you meant, your words definitely do not in any way express that! Try another tack....people like you are a dime a dozen!
Bgmarcks, Good to see that you were an early bird on GERN? I am glad for you and glad you got your worm, maybe worms! As for me, thanks.....but NO thanks! Why don't you take a few of your followers from here with you? You know, the ones who love to predict the price, it's going up, it's going to the moon, etc. and have zero of fundamental analysis or value to offer on this board? Cheers!
Actually, I relish going into the unknown. One of the few who doubled up on INCY at $2.1. And, if other investigators are able to replicate Tefferi's efficacy and bring down the grade 3/4 side effects, I would most certainly buy GERN. But, I try not to make premature investments, which I would classify for myself as idiot investments!
Oh yeah? Who exactly told you that? And what exactly is that based on? So, you have some sort of ins track with the BOD at INCY or you are in a position to influence their acqusition decisions?
Of course, you are on the GERN board and hold a long position in GERN and you are praying? Nothing happens with GERN until someone other than Tefferi reports similar efficacy results and the dosing/safety issues re death and Grade 3/4 effects come down. Until that you are in prayer land! INCY would dare not go anywhere near GERN with just Tefferi's results because they all know him only too well!
I guess I either did not communicate well or you did not comprehend.....LLY market cap is too small and they are not going to have a separate R&D team on the east coast. Have you checked their market cap. Do you understand the risk implications for them? As for NVS their CEO just reiterated that are looking for bolt on acquisitions in the $3-5 Billion range. How do they go from there to say $17-18 Billion? What will happen to their EPS, P/E, how will they fund it, what about impact on Swiss investors' dividends. They te quite conservative and are rejiggering their portfolio and mix of companies and revenue/geographical distribution. Maybe that's why the INCY was able a big guy from NVS as their new CEO. As the price to buy INCY goes over $15 Bilion and revenues will likely not surpass $ 1 Billion until 2016, there just are not many on the easy coast with oncology and inflamm franchises who can get the sales force and R&D synergies to make such a deal work for their shareholder base, wall street and fit it in with their employee and corporate culture to allow the really exceptional INCY R&D team to flourish!
Any deal, at this time, assuming Baker Bros amd T Rowe Price ans Wellington Funds want to sell, would likely be between $15-20 Billion and closer to the upper end. So, it would have to be company with a market cap over $100 billion, and both an oncology and inflammation franchise for synergies. The INCY R&D team would be highly valued, and can't expect them to relocate to CA. The acquiring company has to have the kind of investors who are not heavily into dividends, and ate willing to have a longer term sales horizon becaus their EPS and P/E ratio would take a hit for a few years. MRK is possible and so is JNJ. GILD would be great but they are on the west coast, so is AMGN. NVS CEO is only looking for bolt- on acquisitions in the $3-5 Billion and their Swiss investor base is highly focused on big dividends. For MRK there would be huge dilution and I am not sure they can keep the INCY R&D team. JNJ has done these well by leaving the teams alone like they did with the Centor acquisition and now called Janssen biotech. I think in terms of market cap, location, oncology and immunology franchise synergies, culture, deal terms and sheet size of their balance sheet, they can take such a risk. For most others, a $ 20 Billion acquisition, with less than $1 billion in near term revenues and EPS contribution, share dilution etc would present lots of challenges. Anything can happen, but I believe potential acquirers can be counted on one hand with max of 5 fingers. LLY is too small and in IN, they will not take this kind of huge risk in the oncology space, IMO.
Well, my sense is that a number of fund managers and industry professional are bullish after Dr Friedman's presentation and perhaps also impressed with the credential and track record of the new CEO. At this time, assuming the PV Phase 3 data mirrors the Phase 2 data, it looks like MF and PV alone could generate over $ 1 Billion in 2015. And with PacCa Phase 3 scheduled to start in a couple of months, and lack of any of other good second line treatment options for current PanCa patients, we could also see some significant off label use as soon as this year. If and when PanCa indication is also approved, we could be looking at a $2 Billiom annual sales potential product in 2016/2017. And that assumes nothing for Bari, IDO or 110, or 0093, by that timeframe. With just $2 Billion annual sales potential in 2016/2017, I think many funds may be just discovering the value in INCY, using a 8-10 sales multiple. Now throw in Bari and 110 and at least one of the lung, colorectal or breast for Ruco or 110 and we are talking some very significant numbers even for a mega pharma. On the other hand, there are other targets like VRTX and ALXN who also have rich pipelines and much greater near term sales potential, compared to INCY. This in reference to UBS and JPM identifying INCY as a top acquisition target. I believe only JNJ, MRK, GILD and perhaps AMGN and SNY would be potential acquirers. I still see this as a low probability outcome, because we are talking greater than $15 Billiom price and, the inherent risks in INCY.
Hey, yesterday's presentation included some new info on a pivotal trial for PanCa to begin in March/April 2014. CEO said INCY has an SPA and the FDA has also granted orphan drug status in PanCa, thus providing accelerated approval as well. They will be recruiting 300 patients in the trial, with overall survival as the endpoint. BUT, they did not say anything about the length of the trial. Given that is PanCa, with very short survival times in the second line setting, would you guess that is a 6 month study, or would it need to be 12 months?