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Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Message Board

quantum_analyst 4031 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2013 2:37 PM Member since: Jun 30, 2003
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  • Reply to

    BUY BUY BUY. NEWS COMING OUT SOON!!!

    by dreamstock99 Jun 21, 2013 2:00 PM
    quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 21, 2013 2:37 PM Flag

    The improved guidance was release yesterday or the day before.

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 21, 2013 2:27 PM Flag

    One othe rpoint that has not been discussed - SCTY rose so fast that it hit the Rusell 300, 200 almost immediately leading to large mandatory purchases and also ETF's purchased another bunch so there has been a one time buy on a significant number os shares that will not be repeated.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 21, 2013 2:24 PM Flag

    Based on technical MA at 23 34 39 etc the 20, 50,100 MA's the stock will either break through 39 and stick or break through 34 and drop a lot - it will be one or the other and soon. All of the financial news and guidance is out and all of the IRS, FEC investigations have been announced so the facts are public and the market will make its decision - I see down simply because of the 500% upward move which is nto sustainable gfiven all past analysis on other IPO's.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 21, 2013 2:21 PM Flag

    Why did you not sell at $50 - an intelligent investor would have taken 500% a 500% profit at 50 then bought back in a 35 right?

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 20, 2013 2:14 PM Flag

    The IPO holders just dumped 2.8 million shares into Goldman's lap

  • Reply to

    52.00 Price Target

    by harlytoy1 Jun 20, 2013 8:53 AM
    quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 20, 2013 9:14 AM Flag

    That was over a week ago - just as they loaned SCTY 100 mil - of course they raised the target price - they are selling puts to hedge the loan.

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 20, 2013 9:06 AM Flag

    Another red flag - the 500 ml Goldman loaned them - the terms are private - who knows what guarantees are in the agreement. A shareholder in SCTY is in fact just a debtor to Goldman.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 20, 2013 9:03 AM Flag

    Just read SCTY's last 10-Q and the risk factors - if interest rates rise they lose and they still must pay the "fund participants" - you know this right, they appear to have deferred income from the leases but in fact they have sold this deferred income to various "funds" who are guarnteed to get rep[aid with interst out of Solar City's retained earnings and/or cash flow.

    Solar City is nothing more than a solar system mortgage company.

    When they default on the first payment to their "funds" they will get liquidated and you will still have to pay your l;ease.

    ALSO - look at the part of the 10-Q that states how they get a UCC-1 filed against everyt home they lease a ssytem to. This filing insures that noone except them gets the solar ssytem when your house is foreclosed and also that the leasze IS NOT part of the foreclosure as they have identified it using the UCC-1 as NOT PART OF THE HOME. So you might walk away like they did in the past few years but you will still be hounded for your lease payment reven when you do not live in the home anymore!

    IYou guys need to read their filings and you will see they ARE NOT that big utility company of the future dlike you think.

    They are just a finance company issuing 20 year loans period.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • They are giving Goldman 2,800,000 shars from which they get not one penny.

    They are in fact simply selling 2.8 million shares, period.

    This transaction is exactly like those that prededed the financial meltdown in 2007...it is shady, appears to create value out of thin air and is in fact lowing the book value of the stock while NOT elinating any float and in fact increasing the float by paying interest on the convertibles. No company that is sound financially gives the underwriter stock for issuing convertibles, you guys do know that right?

    So Goldman loans them 500 mil and then gets 2.8 mil shares in order to see 201 mil in convertibles for which they also get a cut.

    Goldman will hedge these shares anticipating the stock dropping ( a CDO - remember them?) using the sale of the convertibles so they lose 0 dollars as the stock drops, they have secured their profit, and as the stock goes down the convertibles will drop as well and Goldman having already dumped them will then buy them back at a profit.

    They win, win, win and solar City gets nada excpet more debt and the extra convertible interest payable quarterly - which interest is PRIMARY AHEAD OF THE COMMON SHAREHOLDERS !

    If you think this is anything more than a financial scam then you do not know how to analyze equity and current debt to equity and the real nature of convertibles.

    Beware.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 19, 2013 2:24 PM Flag

    I agree - it has a technological advantage - intellectual property licensed to larger companies - a secondary product line of components - and a huge cost of entry - add the tech advances interchangeable with SpaceX and you have magic value creation.

    Tesla has a product that has a guaranteed trade in value.

    Compare that to putting current lowest price solar panels on your rook for a price3 that is high enough to give Goldman a profit on their loan to Solar City which you pay them for 20 years

    And you have 0 trade in value after 20 years.

    SCTy has 0 cost of entry - there are at least 12 companies doing it now with their main competitors, large public utilities - getting ready to compete with their EXISTING customer base while not making them sign a 20 year lease. If the utility makes a profit it will go into the rate making decision which will keep everyone's cost down and as a byproduct lower the price savings any SCTY customer planned on getting.

    Yes, TSLA is a better stock, better business model, beter long term investment - period.

  • Period Moving Average Price Change Percent Change Average Volume
    5-Day 35.48 +2.38 +6.89% 2,862,032
    20-Day 40.58 -14.74 -28.58% 3,211,618
    50-Day 32.01 +17.89 +94.28% 2,298,215
    100-Day 24.68 +20.84 +130.20% 1,458,364
    200-Day The stock has not even traded for 200 days !!!!
    Year to Date 23.33

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 18, 2013 3:22 PM Flag

    Quite likely.

    It appears risky to commit to a 20 year contract when the company selling it to you is so young and unproven and more importantly they are selling the leases in tranches just like junk mortgages were sold so you are NOT getting a 20 year guarantee from SCTy - you are just buying a solar system with only estimated savings just like you would rental furniture.

    I think I am the only one here who has actually seen their presentation and language and terms and then have been given an offering of their specific contract terms which show that you are not proven to save one penny. The ESTIMATE your savings based upon the increase in electricity costs over the past 4 years. In my case the annual savings for the first 5 years goes from $100/year to $525/year. That is not much when you are committing to a 20 year deal.

    Their business model is not sound and only financial engineering with Goldman - Taibi called Goldman the Octopus gripping the heart of American economics - only Goldman is making money right now.

    If you sign a lease with them that allows their 3%+ annual increase in monthly payments you really have an adjustable rate mortgage on a product that quickly depreciates and which is the cheapest solar panel alternative on the market today and the key point is - you can not swap your system for a better one.

    At least a car lease is only 3-5 years and you can trade it in for another one and get a brand new car.

    You can even get a 15 year montage for a brand new home!

    Imagine being stuck with ANY technology for 20 years.

    Given Moore's law the efficiency of solar panels will double every 4 years.

    For every year you wait you save more by waiting for a more cost effective system, at least for 5 years which is what it takes before your estimated savings is over $500 a year.

    Elon Musk has created 2 extremely amazing and future oriented companies.

    He is simply helping his COUSINS with SCTY so that he can get electricity filling stations for Tesla.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Any other company which was closely held by a few self interested parties who are both officers and CEO's and Chairmen of the Board would indicate that the retail shareholder was at the mercy of those few individuals who would act in their own best interest not necessarily in the interests of the smaller shareholders.

    They vote for whom and for what they want and the company can basically pay whomever whatever, grant options to whomever for whatever strike price and vesting date.

    In fact this must be disclosed on the 10-Q-K as a risk factor not a benefit.

    A cult of personality does not make a good investment and solar power is not a technological break through as is SpaceX and Tesla. both of which have unique technology and patents.

    Think what you will talking about a stock's potential price without considering the most important aspect which is management and transparency is just kind of missing some key points.

    If you are liking this stock then why not comment on these factors please.

    Thanks

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 18, 2013 11:52 AM Flag

    They are selling 2.7 million on top of the 5.4 you mentioned making it 8.1/76 = 11% dilution + mpore debt

  • Goldman may say that the "in effect price" is 42.5 but they are not buing at that price. They are simply getting a commission for offering the convertibles and then selling 2.5 million for the company and pocketing their profits. So, SCTY has just said that they their stock is worth a max of 42.5 and they sold 2.5 million shares to prove it - now who put up these 2.5 million shares?

    Goldman is screwing you

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 18, 2013 9:47 AM Flag

    SCTY is simply selling 2.7 million shares to get to sell another 100 mill in convertibles...SCTY in effect just dumped 2.5 million shars of stock...this is a bitof a scam but it sounds cool - watch out - these shares will be sold quickly and the price will go down - and SCTY will look even better even though it sold its own stock....neat huh? Not really

  • quantum_analyst by quantum_analyst Jun 17, 2013 3:03 PM Flag

    It is long and detailed and computes that the stock has been priced 67% higher than its inherent value.

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 14, 2013 3:03 PM Flag

    I bought at 27 and sold at 47 - do not have a position - could not find the shares to short anyway

  • quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 14, 2013 2:55 PM Flag

    Do the math over 20 years. It isn't that simple.

  • Reply to

    Absolutely no support above 35

    by smartrader05 Jun 14, 2013 12:04 PM
    quantum_analyst quantum_analyst Jun 14, 2013 2:13 PM Flag

    It is hard to find any precedent for an IPO going up 400% in 3 months and then increasing much more. Google went from 85 to 850 over many years and Google has a good steady income, its own technology, patents etc.

    Solar City has nothing but a status as middle man and the promise of good financing terms.

    In fact, if today's SCTY lease is a good ida then it would be as good or better next year, 5 years out etc.

    You save NO substantial money for at least 3 years so why sign a 20 year contract?

    I have run the numbers every way I can and there is no investment return in these leases that can not be bettered by using more efficient techniques - proven ones - to make your home more energy efficient.

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